Welcome to another edition of Thursday Daily Fantasy. There are nine games scheduled for today but with just two taking place in the afternoon I'm going to concentrate on the seven game Main slate that begins tonight at 7:05 EDT.
There are a handful of Vegas lines that may be helpful in your lineup decision making today. There are three games - White Sox at Twins, Tigers at White Sox and Braves at Rockies - that have double digit over/under totals listed, with the Coors game leading the way at 12. The heaviest moneyline favorites of the night games are the Red Sox, Cardinals and Pirates. As for positive park factors for hitters, the Braves and Rockies hitters from either side of the plate and the right-handed batters of the White Sox and Tigers have the best of today's slate.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/21/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Boston Red Sox versus Tyler Duffey
This game features one of the highest projected run totals of the day and with the Red Sox so heavily favored, I'm going to venture to guess the oddsmakers are predicting a lot of run support for Steven Wright tonight. Fenway is a very kind park to right-handed batters, and the Red Sox have a handful of hitters in their lineup that can really dent the Green Monster. Thus far in 2016, Duffey has been hit hard by batters from both sides of the plate, but right-handed ones have done the majority of the damage, as he's allowed them a .377 wOBA and .529 slugging percentage. One stack I particularly like is Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Colorado Rockies versus Mike Foltynewicz
Aside from Duffey, Folty is another easy target to pick on tonight and stack against. Honestly, he's fair game to stack against at any park, but the fact the game is being played at Coors makes it all the more appealing. For the season, he has a WHIP just a fraction under 1.4 and an atrocious HR/9 allowed of 2.1 - by far the biggest figure of tonight's slate. Over the past 15 days, he has a hard hit rate of 46%. Combine that with his HR/9, and that spells souvenirs for those sitting beyond the fence in the outfield. One stack I particularly like is Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Steven Wright (SP, BOS) - $9,500
To be honest, the starting pitching options today leave a lot to be desired. Wright has been solid-to-great this season, but he's not someone who I consider an elite option in daily fantasy. Today, he'll just have to be relatively elite for us. The matchup is a good one, seeing as Minnesota's offense is one of the weakest in the majors, and Wright's strikeout opportunity gets a boost thanks to the Twins' near 30% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Two things that help make the decision to roster Wright easier for me is that he has allowed only a 31% hard hit rate in the past 15 days and a paltry 9% line drive rate.
Also Consider: Adam Wainwright (SP, STL) - $9,200
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C, DET) - $2,300
I was salivating over his price and matchup just a few days ago, then he was bounced from the lineup. Let's try this again, Salty. He's an absolute bargain at this price and has a great matchup. His splits favor facing right-handed pitching and he faces the home-run-serving James Shields in a good park for offense.
First Base (1B)
Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL) - $3,900
All in all, a fantastic price when you consider the matchup is against a subpar pitcher in Tyler Chatwood and it takes place at Coors Field. After a dismal start to the season, Freeman has improved his numbers drastically and sports strong splits in the form of a .358 wOBA and a .223 ISO.
Second Base (2B)
Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) - $3,400
I called him out in my stack above and he also happens to be my favorite second baseman of this smaller slate. Duffey presents a fantastic matchup for Pedroia as he struggles with right-handed hitting and Dustin has a good .360 wOBA split and solid .462 slugging percentage.
Shortstop (SS)
Marcus Semien (SS, OAK) - $3,500
This price, for a guy like Semien who loves crushing southpaws, is quite the bargain - perhaps the best of the day. He matches up well with Matt Moore, who has struggled greatly this year, and allows nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Semien's splits against left-handed pitching are very strong, as told by his .422 wOBA and .301 ISO.
Third Base (3B)
Ryan Schimpf (3B, SDP) - $2,200
Disclaimer here - Schimpf, for as fantastic as he's been against right-handed pitching - is not a cash game option yet. If you're playing cash today, I'd look towards Nolan Arenado and Jung-Ho Kang. That said, if you're playing GPP formats or desperately need salary relief, roster Schimpf. His numbers against righties - .396 wOBA and a .590 slugging percentage - are fantastic.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Tommy Pham (OF, STL) - $2,600
There isn't anything not to love about Pham, his price and his matchup. His splits against right-handed pitchers are stellar as well, as noted by his .406 wOBA.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL) - $4,200
This is an insanely cheap price for CarGO, at Coors, against the pitcher who serves up more home runs per nine innings than anyone else pitching today. Gonzalez's splits are almost otherworldly - .434 wOBA, .314 ISO and a .644 slugging percentage.
Sean Rodriguez (OF, PIT) - $2,900
I figured I'd try to deliver some more value seeing as my lone pitching suggestion is a little pricey and you'll want to be able to afford Coors Field exposure. Rodriguez and his strong .222 ISO could certainly tee off against the likes of Matt Garza, who somehow still has a rotation on a major league baseball team.
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