It feels good to be back! It's only been two weeks since my last column, but in the DFS world, that's, like, four years almost. Tonight we've got a packed slate and tons of good options. All 30 teams are taking the field and will be doing so under the lights, so every player is fair game in the Main slate. As for Vegas lines we can learn something from, the games with the highest estimated run totals today are the Giants at Red Sox (10), Rays at Rockies (11.5), Rangers at Angels (9.5), Orioles at Yankees (9.5) and Twins at Tigers (10). The best park factors for hitters tonight are for the Rays and Rockies at Coors Field, the left-handed batters for the Orioles and Yankees, and the right-handed batters of the Braves and Reds.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/19/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Orioles left-handed batters versus Nathan Eovaldi
The heavy hitters in this Orioles lineup should have an absolute blast against the subpar Eovaldi. So far in 2016, Eovaldi has allowed a .376 wOBA and .538 slugging percentage to left-handed batters - the highest slugging percentage split of tonight's slate. He's also allowed just a fraction under two home runs per nine innings to lefties. They get a nice park factor boost tonight, too.
Blue Jays right-handed batters versus Zack Godley
Godley has a hard-hit rate of 42% over his past two starts. That spells trouble for the Diamondbacks and stack for the Blue Jays, who have a lineup full of adept right-handed power hitters. For the season, Godley has allowed a .400 wOBA and a monstrous .674 slugging percentage to right-handed batters, along with two home runs per nine innings.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Aaron Sanchez (SP, TOR) - $8,900
For most of the 2016 season, Sanchez, who's record sits at 9-1 with an ERA under 3.0, has been a model of consistency. In his last 10 starts, he's exceeded his price implied value by more than five points a game and I do like the matchup he has tonight against the Diamondbacks. Sanchez has a hard hit rate of just 30% over his past two starts and while his 7.8 K/9 isn't crazy impressive, his chances for strikeout increase dramatically tonight as Arizona, for the season, has struck out in more than 30% of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching.
Carlos Martinez (SP, STL) - $9,400
Like Sanchez, C-Mart has been very consistent this season and I think he's a fine option today in both GPP and cash game formats. Over his last 10 starts, he's exceeded value by an average of more than seven points per game and boasts an impressively low line drive rate of just 10 percent over his past 2 starts. Martinez, who has posted a 8.2 K/9 this year has a higher strikeout upside this evening thanks to the Padres' 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season.
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Nick Hundley (C, COL) - $3,400
Hundley is an excellent way to get Coors exposure tonight on the cheap. He has strong splits against southpaws - .403 wOBA, .234 ISO - and has an incredibly impressive hard hit rate of 50% over the past 15 days. His position in the lineup - normally bottom third - could help keep his ownership percentage lower as well.
First Base (1B)
David Ortiz (1B, BOS) - $4,000
Big Papi hasn't gone deep since the 10th of the month, but I have a feeling that changes tonight against his former teammate, Jake Peavy. Peavy has been especially kind to left-handed batters this season, allowing a .374 wOBA and .512 slugging percentage. Ortiz has been blasting righties this season to the tune of a .390 ISO - by far the best ISO split of any first baseman tonight.
Second Base (2B)
Jurickson Profar (2B, TEX) - $2,500
It appears Profar is finding his stride again and he's an excellent value tonight at this price point. He boasts an impressive split of over .400 and an ISO over .200. He matches up well against Tim Lincecum, who has been hit very hard this season by batters from both sides of the dish.
Shortstop (SS)
Brad Miller (SS, TAM) - $3,800
Mr. Miller, he that hits right-handers very well, gets a huge park factor boost tonight as this game is being played at Coors Field. He may look a little expensive, but that's a relatively cheap price to get Coors exposure for a hitter at the top of the lineup with a .208 ISO split.
Third Base (3B)
Nick Castellanos (3B, DET) - $3,300
Nick has a fantastic matchup against Milone, who has allowed nearly a .500 slugging percentage to right-handed batters this season - the fifth highest of any of the 30 pitchers taking the bump tonight. I'm considering Castellanos and his .300 ISO and nearly .600 slugging percentage split quite the bargain tonight at this price point.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Tommy Pham (OF, STL) - $2,700
Pham has been excellent against right-handed pitching this season and is grossly under-priced this evening. His .406 wOBA is an incredible split and he backs it up with some power, posting a .286 ISO and .588 slugging percentage. His competition, Colin Rea, gives up most of his home run balls to right-handed batters, too.
Mike Trout (OF, LAA) - $4,300
Mike should have an absolute field day tonight against Kyle Lohse. Lohse has just a few innings under his belt this season, so I won't directly cite his numbers, but he has been hit very hard. Like Pham, Trout is one of those hitters who prefers the righty-righty matchup, as proven by his .416 wOBA and .274 ISO split.
Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) - $3,000
Duvall and his impressive home run tally have been one of the biggest stories of the year. The kid can really mash it, and he loves doing so against right-handed pitching. Good news - he faces young righty Tyrell Jenkins tonight in one of the best parks for right-handed power hitters.
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