Tuesdays are my favorite MLB DFS day and it should be yours too. Not just because I get to write this column, but because we're normally - like with the case we have today - blessed with 15 games all under the lights. One enormous slate with plenty of options where more time can be spent on sleeper-hunting than worrying about how grossly owned a player is going to be when there's only 5-7 or so games scheduled.
Let's first discuss the hitters with the highest positive park factors for tonight's slate. Right off the bat we have the most obvious ones with Blue Jays and Rockies hitters from both sides of the plate benefiting from the Coors effect, followed by the left-handed batters of the Yankees and Rangers at Yankees Stadium, and the right-handed hitters of the Cubs and Reds in Cincinnati round out the top three parks for tonight. As for Vegas insights, the games with the highest over/unders tonight are the Blue Jays at Rockies (12), the Marlins at Tigers (9.5) and the Orioles at Padres (9).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/28/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Orioles versus Erik Johnson
For two reasons, I think this one flies under the radar tonight. First off, the Orioles get a park downgrade and secondly, it's a West coast matchup. I believe it was Jonathan Bales from FantasyLabs that did a study on how there is an East coast bias when it comes to daily fantasy in that players in games with earlier start times are normally higher owned than players playing in the late games out West. Anyway, the matchup here against Johnson is what is the most juicy. Johnson has only thrown 26 1/3 innings as a starter this year, but in those starts he's been absolutely rocked by hitters from both sides of the plate. I expect this to be a higher scoring affair - as does Vegas - seeing as how Johnson has allowed a slugging percentage this season to left-handed batters of .627 and one to righties of .906.
Marlins left-handed batters versus Mike Pelfrey
Poor Mike Pelfrey. The man has just been getting shelled this season. In his last three starts, he has vastly underperformed and I feel the Marlins and their left-handed batters, especially, have a chance to get to him early this evening. For the season, Pelfrey has been hit hard by lefties, allowing a .394 wOBA and .526 slugging percentage. He's also striking out very few batters (4.95 K/), been very wild (1.736 WHIP) and is facing a lineup that has nearly a .300 wOBA against right-handed pitching for the season.
Also Consider: Blue Jays versus Eddie Butler
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Corey Kluber (SP, CLE) - $10,800
Kluber has been pretty terrific in the month of June, exceeding value in 55% of his starts by an average of more than five points per start, and I think he continues the trend this evening in a matchup with the Braves. Out of the 30 pitchers taking the bump tonight, Kluber is top four in K/9 (9.48), top two in WHIP (1.01), and top two in HR/9 at 0.901. Over the past 15 days, he boasts an incredible hard hit rate of just 20%. Tonight's matchup doesn't create an incredibly high floor with the Braves' strikeout rate against right-handers sitting at just under 24%, but it's not a bad one, either.
Jose Quintana (SP, CHW) - $8,800
If you're playing cash games only tonight, kindly jump to the next section. Quintana isn't cash game safe right now, despite posting overall very solid numbers this season. He was shelled in his last start but he has a prime opportunity to get back on the right track tonight. Thanks to that recent poor performance, his price has dropped and he's a nice bargain at $8,800. He has very high strikeout upside when you consider his K/9 is over eight for the season and the Twins strikeout in nearly 30% of their at-bats against southpaws. If you're looking for a tournament guy that could have a low ownership percentage, take a strong look at Q.
Also Consider: Jon Lester (SP, CHC) - $11,100 (cash) and Rick Porcello (SP, BOS) -$8,400 (GPP)
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Salvador Perez (C, KCR) - $3,000
If you've read my columns before, you might recall I'm a big fan of pitting Perez against right-handed pitchers - especially pitchers that rely fairly heavily on their fastball. Perez is listed at a bargain-ish price this evening and he has pretty strong splits, too - .357 wOBA and a .220 ISO.
First Base (1B)
Justin Bour (1B, MIA) - $3,900
As I mentioned in my stacking options above, I'm a pretty big fan of the left-handed bats of the Marlins this evening. Pelfrey has been shelled by lefties and Bour has been really heating up. He's exceeded value in six of his last 10 by an incredible average of nearly nine points per game and he boasts impressive splits against right-handed pitching as well.
Also Consider: Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - $4,200
Second Base (2B)
Devon Travis (2B, TOR) - $3,700
Like Justin Bour, Travis has been really heating up of late. In two of his past three games he has eclipsed 27 FanDuel points and he has an opportune matchup tonight in Coors to produce that and then some. For the season, he's produced a .380 wOBA and a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching. Eddie Butler is in for a long night, methinks.
Also Consider: Derek Dietrich (2B, MIA) - $3,200
Shortstop (SS)
Tim Anderson (SS, CHW) - $2,500
It's a bit surprising that Anderson is still listed at this low price, but I'm not here to complain. The rookie right-handed batter has been very impressive since the call up and he's exceeded his price implied value in each of his last four games. Tonight he faces up against a right-hander in Kyle Gibson, and Anderson's splits strongly favor seeing right-handed pitching.
Also Consider: Corey Seager (SS, LAD) - $4,000
Third Base (3B)
Jose Ramirez (3B, CLE) - $3,200
I was strongly consider an Indians' stack tonight and Ramirez and the rest of their left-handed hitters are a strong reason why. Ramirez boasts good splits and opposing pitcher Matt Wisler has struggled with left-handed batters this season.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Adam Jones (OF, BAL) - $3,400
Jones has a marvelous matchup tonight against Erik Johnson and so do the rest of the entire Orioles lineup. I'm expecting ample opportunities for Jones to drive runs in and be driven in. His splits are not only strong, they strongly favor facing pitchers from the right side.
Adam Eaton (OF, CHW) - $3,200
On a night where it seems almost every hitter - especially outfielders - are overpriced, Eaton provides some upside and salary relief. Kyle Gibson is nothing to fear and Eaton boasts an ISO split that is nearly 100 points higher when facing right-handed pitching.
Ian Desmond (OF, TEX) - $4,100
Desmond has been absolutely crushing left-handed pitching this season and that should continue tonight against CC Sabathia. For the year, he owns a very impressive .400 wOBA split and his .224 ISO and .552 slugging percentage are nearly as impressive.
Also Consider: Christian Yelich (OF, MIA) - $4,000
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