While I miss not having the opportunity to sneak in some day game watching at my desk, a 15 game Tuesday slate where every game's first pitch is at night is a beautiful thing for DFS. We have that situation tonight with every team in action under the lights. There are quite a few games today with fairly high over/unders listed in Vegas, so I'll give you those with figures nine or higher: White Sox at Red Sox (9), Rockies at Yankees (9.5), Padres at Orioles (10), Diamondbacks at Blue Jays (9), and Reds at Rangers (9.5). As for positive park factors for hitters, the batters with the greatest advantages today are the left-handed batters of the Rockies and Yankees, the left-handed batters of the Padres and Orioles, and the lefties of the Rangers and Reds.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/21/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
There are so many quality stacking opportunities today - where do I begin?
Baltimore Orioles versus Luis Perdomo
This is a fun one because both left-handed and right-handed batters have been very successful against Perdomo this season and the Orioles have plenty of hitters with pop to choose from. In 2016, Perdomo has allowed a .385 wOBA and .505 slugging percentage to left-handed batters and a .454 wOBA and .630 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters. That .630 slugging percentage allowed to righties is the highest split allowed of any pitcher today. Perdomo, who normally pitches in pitcher-friendly San Diego, has a HR/9 allowed on the road of 2.18. This game also features the highest over/under of the day at 10 runs. Fill your lineup with Orioles today!
New York Yankees Right-Handed Batters versus Chad Bettis
Due to park factors, I'd normally like to lean left-handed batters in Yankee Stadium, but Bettis has been hit so hard by the right side I can't ignore it. For the season, he's allowed a .373 wOBA and .527 slugging percentage split while also allowing 2.01 HR/9 on the road. I did some digging, since I assumed those numbers would be inflated from his Coors Field starts, but he's actually allowed a higher slugging percentage on the road than at home this season - go figure.
Houston Astros Right-Handed Batters versus Hector Santiago
Hector Santiago's splits to right-handed batters - .346 wOBA, .483 slugging percentage allowed - are strong, but don't exactly scream "stack against me." However, I think there is a lot of value in this Astros lineup that is loaded with power from the right side. Keep in mind, Santiago pitches half of his games in a pitcher friendly park and has still allowed an average of more than two home runs per nine innings to righties this season. On a day where there are a few more obvious stacks, I think the Astros stack could fly under the radar and prove to be a lucrative decision.
Also Consider: Texas Rangers versus Anthony DeSclafani
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Noah Syndegaard (SP, NYM) - $10,900
I've discussed this before, but I truly think Syndegaard is matchup proof. On a day like today, though, where another elite pitcher in Jose Fernandez is pitching, it's worth it to compare their matchups before moving in one direction or the other. Noah gets the nod for me for a few reasons, starting with price and $1,100 you save in choosing Syndegaard over Fernandez. The second of which is strikeout opportunity. Fernandez's K/9 is higher than Syndegaard's but the Royals strikeout against right-handers at a higher clip than the Braves do and Syndegaard pitchers deeper into games. For the season, Noah has averaged 6.5 innings per start, whereas Fernandez is under six at 5.9. Syndegaard also sports a hard hit rate allowed of 11 percentage points lesser than Fernandez. Since the opportunity for double digit strikeouts might not be there tonight, I'm not in love with Syndegaard in tournament formats but he's certainly my pick for cash lineups.
Corey Kluber (SP, CLE) - $9,700
Kluber gets the nod for me as my top tournament pitcher for the evening. I think people put way too much stock in a pitcher's last outing, and since Kluber's wasn't a good one, he could fly under the radar this evening. Taking away his 15 point performance in his most recent start, Kluber has been great over the past month, putting up 48 FanDuel points or more in three of his prior four starts. For the season, Kluber is averaging 9.61 K/and high strikeout upside presents itself tonight in the form of the Rays' hitters - they that strikeout nearly 28% of the time against right-handed pitching. Even despite his rough outing last week, Kluber sports one of the best hard hit rates of the day at just 27%.
Also Consider: Aaron Nola (SP, PHI) - $9,000 (GPP)
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Russell Martin (C, TOR) - $3,200
This is spending up a little higher than I'd normally like to for a catcher, but Martin is in a great spot to do some damage tonight. After a really slow start to the season, Martin has found his form and in the past 10 games, he's exceeded value seven times, by an average of more than five points a night. He owns a .340 wOBA and .200 ISO split and faces a pitcher in Patrick Corbin who has allowed 1.62 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season.
First Base (1B)
Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - $4,200
I mentioned up top how much I love the Orioles today and Crush is a big proponent of why. His splits this year against right-handed pitchers - .431 wOBA, .362 ISO - are absolutely incredible and he matches up against a pitcher that has been getting crushed this season. I'm expecting lots of RBI opportunities for Mr. Davis and company.
Also Consider: Mike Napoli (1B, CLE) - $2,900
Second Base (2B)
Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL) - $3,300
Schoop is one of my favorite power hitters for tournament formats week in and week out since he sits near the bottom of the order and seems to be less owned because of it. Tonight he and the rest of his teammates have a fantastic opportunity for offensive fireworks against Luis Perdomo. For the season, Schoops splits - .358 wOBA, .226 ISO - are very impressive for a second baseman.
Shortstop (SS)
Trevor Story (SS, COL) - $2,800
At this price point, Story is such a great value. Sure, he steps away from hitter-friendly Coors, but Yankee Stadium is a great park to do some damage in. Story sports a .368 wOBA and .296 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. His opposition, Ivan Nova, struggles with righties and has allowed a .517 slugging percentage to them this season while allowing 1.54 HR/9.
Also Consider: Tim Anderson (SS, CWS) - $3,000
Third Base (3B)
Jung-Ho Kang (3B, PIT) - $2,400
Like Story, Kang is an incredible bargain and could go overlooked tonight. His recent performance hasn't been great, but a look at advanced stats reveals he may have been a bit unlucky. His hard hit rate is above 35% over the past 15 days, and more impressively, he owns a line drive rate of 44% during that same time period. In other words, he's hitting the ball hard and on the nose, but he's finding a lot of gloves. For the season, he sports a .400 wOBA and .241 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Also Consider: Josh Donaldson (3B, TOR) - $4,500
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
George Springer (OF, HOU) - $3,900
Springer not only sports great splits but he has ideal position in the order and should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs and be driven in as I think the Astros will chase Hector Santiago fairly quickly. Santiago really struggles with right-handed batters.
Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX) - $3,000
Mazara has come back to Earth so to speak, but he still has impressive splits this season and is somewhat of a bargain at this price point. He matches up with Anthony DeSclafani today, who, despite owning 2.08 ERA, has actually been hit very hard this season. His xFIP is above six and for his career, he's allowed over a .350 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
Kole Calhoun (OF, LAA) - $3,500
Normally I like someone with a little more pop at this price point and position, but Calhoun is a nice tournament option today thanks to his opponent, Collin McHugh. McHugh has been getting hit very hard lately and really struggles to retire lefty batters.
Also Consider: Adam Jones (OF, BAL) - $3,900
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