Eleven games on the docket today and FanDuel has split them up into three contests - Early Only (2 games - 12:35 EDT), All Day (11 games - 12:35 EDT), and Main (9 games, 7:05 EDT). I'll give a mix of player suggestions here so you're covered for whichever slate you choose.
Vegas insights? For starters, the games with the highest projected run totals are the Mariners at Orioles (9), Indians at Reds (8.5) and a handful of games with an over/under of eight runs - Yankees at Athletics, Dodgers at Angels, Blue Jays at Twins, Cubs at Brewers and the Braves at the Pirates. The biggest favorites of the day both hail from the Windy City, with Jason Hammel and the Cubs at -185 and Chris Sale and the White Sox at -200. The teams with the best positive park factors for hitters are the Mariners and Orioles left-handed batters, the Reds and Indians right-handed batters, and the White Sox and Astros right-handed batters.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/19/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Cleveland Indians versus Tim Adleman
It's always fun to pick on a rookie pitcher with one or two of your stacks. The Indians may not jump off the board as obvious selection today due to the fact they aren't a huge power hitting team (26th in MLB in HR), but that could help them fly under the radar in GPP tournaments. It's a small sample size, but Adleman's starts at the major league level this season haven't been too pretty and left-handed batters have pounded him to the tune of a .439 wOBA and .619 slugging percentage. I've got my eyes on Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana for sure. The rest of the stack could be configured with power in the likes of Mike Napoli or value in the left-handed bat of Lonnie Chisenhall or Tyler Naquin.
Baltimore Orioles versus Nate Karns
When three of the top four players in your player model are Baltimore Orioles, your algorithm just might be trying to tell you to stack the Birds today. Karns has been a solid pitcher this season, especially when it comes to strikeout percentage, but he does give up his fair share of long balls (1.2 HR/9) and the Orioles certainly aren't devoid of power. The left-handed Orioles batters have the better park factors but right-handed batters have done more damage to Karns this season. My suggestion would be to mix the power hitting guys at the top of the order, going a little right-handed heavy but certainly including Chris Davis along with Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo.
Also Consider: White Sox versus Collin McHugh
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Jeff Samardzija (SP, SFG) - $9,900
The Shark has fairly quietly been producing great fantasy numbers this season, especially in his most recent outings. Samardzija has exceeded his price implied value in each of his last five starts, doing so by an impressive margin of nearly seven fantasy points per outing. His K/9 and HR/9 - 7.2 and 1.1, respectively - aren't spectacular, but he has a great matchup today that boosts his value. The Padres offense lacks pop and they currently strike out in nearly 28% of their at-bats with right-handed pitchers. The game is also being played in San Diego, one of the most desirable pitcher parks to play in.
Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS) - $10,600
I was a little torn between Strasburg and Chris Sale, but a few things eventually tuned me to the Strasburg side. For starters, Strasburg has been performing very well, exceeding 42 points in each of his last four starts. Not only has he been consistent, but he's averaging over 11 strikeouts per nine innings and his WHIP is under one this season. He also faces the lineup with less pop than the one Sale is facing, and Steven features the lower batted ball distance over the last 15 days. Strasburg also gets a slight pitching park upgrade today moving to New York - pocket the $1,500 in savings for the rest of your lineup and go with Strasburg.
Also Consider: Jon Gray (SP, COL) -$6,900 (GPP only)
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Matt Wieters (C, BAL) - $2,100
I'm sure you've heard this line before, but, the catching crop is quite underwhelming tonight. I'm going to seek value at the position, as one normally does, and go with the switch hitting Wieters against Nate Karns. Thus far in 2016, Wieters has a .316 wOBA and .403 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. Solid numbers for nearly the salary minimum.
First Base (1B)
Carlos Santana (1B, CLE) -$3,000
Santana is an excellent value today priced at just 3K. The switch-hitting Santana should have little trouble picking on rookie Tim Adleman and thus far in 2016 he's posted a .208 ISO against right-handed pitching. Santana and his teammates get a major park boost today moving to Cincinnati.
Also Consider: Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - $4,100
Second Base (2B)
Robinson Cano (2B, SEA) - $4,200
Cano has been hot and sports a hard hit rate of over 43% in the last 15 days. Tonight he has a good matchup against Tyler Wilson. Cano gets a major park upgrade in Baltimore and owns a .241 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Also Consider: Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) - $3,600
Shortstop (SS)
Manny Machado (SS, BAL) - $3,800
For the season, Machado's numbers are very impressive, but now that he's in a bit of a *slump*, we can roster him for a much more reasonable figure. Tonight, Machado has a very strong matchup and you should look to him both as your shortstop and as part of a Baltimore stack. He currently owns a .399 wOBA and .256 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Also Consider: Addison Russell (SS, CHC) - $3,600
Third Base (3B)
Kris Bryant (3B, CHC) - $4,400
Mr. Bryant and his .366 wOBA and .214 ISO splits have a strong matchup today against Javy Guerra up in Milwaukee. Guerra isn't anything special and while I won't say that Bryant is due, so to speak, but he does have an impressive hard hit rate of 47% the past 15 days with little to show for it.
Also Consider: Pedro Alvarez (3B, BAL) - $2,800
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Dexter Fowler (OF, CHC) - $4,000
Dex has a lot of value at the top of this potent Cubs order facing a subpar pitcher in Javy Guerra. He's a switch hitter with stronger splits facing right-handed pitching and owns a .346 wOBA and .431 slugging percentage this season.
Carlos Beltran (OF, NYY) - $2,800
Value guy? Punt play? Tournament sleeper? Beltran essentially fits the description of all three. He is playing away from Yankee Stadium in a pitcher's park, so he may end up being an afterthought in tournaments today. However, he does own a very .223 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and he's an incredible value at this price.
Bryce Harper (OF, WAS) - $4,200
Is rostering Bryce Harper against an elite pitcher in a pitcher's park a contrarian play? I ask that in all seriousness. I think it would have to go to a vote. On the one side, there are the things working against him that I just mentioned - elite pitcher, poor park - but on the other side he's the best hitter in baseball and the owner of a shiny .452 wOBA and .322 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Perhaps it isn't contrarian, but I think Harper could be lesser owned than normal today and $4,200 is a bargain.
Also Consider: Jason Heyward (OF, CHC) - $3,600 and Matt Joyce (OF, PIT) - $3,200
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