RADIO
Tuesdays and Fridays during the MLB season are beautiful. Well, there going to be, and here's why. We get to spend them together, making lineups, pocketing some cash and hopefully each and every one of us ends up cashing one of those big, goofy, Happy Gilmore-like checks.
Before I get into player stacks and individual player selections, let's take a look at Vegas lines that could be helpful when making some tough decisions. As you well know, we have a full slate today, and with 30 teams to choose from, sometimes looking to a Vegas line to help make a 50-50 call can be really beneficial. From a projected run total standpoint, the Orioles (5), the Royals (4.8) and the Blue Jays and Indians (both 4.7) are sitting pretty. In terms of big moneyline favorites, which can be helpful when determining which pitcher to roll with (especially in cash games), the heaviest favorites are the Yankees (-178), the Nationals (-174) and the Cubs (-170).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/18/17. Enjoy the read and good luck out there today! Let's get this ball rolling, shall we?
Offensive Stacks
Baltimore Orioles versus Bronson Arroyo
The Orioles boast the highest run total projection of the day as they currently sit at five runs. There is a lot to like about this matchup, starting with the fact that Bronson Arroyo has no business still pitching in the major leagues, the Orioles' lineup packs a ton of punch, and they are playing this game in a very favorable power hitters' park in Cincinnati. Arroyo hasn't pitched at the MLB level since 2014, and in that year, he was completely roughed up by right-handed hitters, allowing a .378 wOBA and a .500 slugging percentage. In the 10 innings he's thrown this year, he's already managed to give up four home runs and has allowed a 9.17 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters. Some of my favorite Orioles to stack this evening are Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones and Trey Mancini.
Also Consider: Milwaukee Brewers versus Brett Anderson (GPP only)
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Yu Darvish - SP, at OAK ($10,700)
If you're looking for a cash game pitcher, your strongest options lie with Mad Max and Yu Darvish. Both sport similar projections and have pretty favorable matchups. Scherzer is somewhat of a bargain at this price point, a number I think he can surpass value at, especially with a fairly weak offensive opponent. However, Darvish allows me to save a little more cash, boasts a similar strikeout projection (and K/ figure with 11.6 compared to Scherzer's 11.5) and happens to be dueling in the more pitcher-friendly park of the two today. In breaking down the opponents, we all see that this Oakland lineup strikes out at nearly a 29% clip against right-handers, whereas Atlanta is striking out in just 23% of their at-bats versus righties. furthermore, Darvish has a very strong batted ball distance allowed over his first two starts, with that figure sitting at 196 feet.
Luis Severino - SP, vs CWS ($7,700)
It's tough at first, but sooner than later, you have to convince yourself to take a few calculated risks in making your tournament lineups. The best, calculated risk I can find today that would allow you to pair some stud hitters with a pitcher that has a chance for 6+ strikeouts and a win is Luis Severino. Severino enters start three having struck out 17 batters in just 12 innings of work this year. Tonight, I like this opportunity for Severino not based just on what he's done, but the matchup ahead of him tonight is one I think comes with high upside. The White Sox have a team wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season of just .241 and their projected lineup tonight has a massive strikeout rate of nearly 31%. With Severino tonight, the upside outweighs the associated risk.
Also Consider: Max Scherzer - SP, at ATL ($11,400)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Alex Avila - C, at TB ($2,500)
I don't know if the reporters in Detroit are keeping his success under wraps or that if I've just been blind to Avila's early accomplishments in 2017. We aren't dealing with a very large sample size yet, obviously, but Avila has been smashing the ball, crushing his price implied value in all four games he's played in - by a huge margin of 14.61 FanDuel points per night. In that same stretch he has a very strong batted ball distance - 257 feet - and a 57% line drive rate to pair with it. As for the matchup tonight, it's a favorable one for Avila and his .371 wOBA and .227 ISO splits (from the past year).
Also Consider: Evan Gattis - C, vs LAA ($2,900)
Eric Thames - 1B, at CHC ($3,400)
It would be a disservice to you if I didn't at least put Thames on your radar this evening. In case you hadn't heard, the big first baseman has been murdering baseballs over the past week, adding bleacher seat souvenirs to fans six times in the past five games. His price has climbed $800 in that stretch, but he's still at a price point where I feel comfortable with him hitting and surpassing value. He has great lineup order value as he's often slotted second, is hitting in a very favoravle hitters' park tonight and he's facing a fairly weak pitcher in Brett Anderson. It's a little silly to cite such small sample stats, but I can't resist calling out Thames' .750 ISO split.
Also Consider: Chris Davis - 1B, at CIN ($3,300)
Daniel Murphy - 2B, at ATL ($3,600)
Daniel Murphy at this price point is almost always a must play in cash game formats, and he holds quite the ceiling as well, which always puts him in the tournament conversation (at the very least). Murphy has only had one real phenomenal performance this season, but his peripheral stats say that he's due. He owns an average batted ball distance of 235 feet this season and pairs that with a 37% line drive rate and 31% hard hit rate. He just happens to not be finding many holes, but those stats are reason to be optimistic. Tonight, his matchup is one I really like, as he takes on the normally unreliable Mike Foltynewicz. Over the past year, Murphy also owns incredible splits against right-handed pitching, posting a .414 wOBA and .255 ISO.
Also Consider: Brad Miller - 2B, vs DET ($2,800)
Mike Moustakas - 3B, vs SFG ($3,300)
The Moose is another guy I like today due to his year-long impressive splits and the way he's burst out of the gates here in 2017. Moustakas owns a .397 wOBA and .320 ISO split against right-handed pitching over the last 365 days, and Matt Cain's now-batting-practice-speed fastball will likely be no match for the powerful lefty slugger. Since the start of 2017, Moustakas has a hard hit rate of 38% and pairs that with a noteworthy average batted ball distance of 233 feet.
Also Consider: Jake Lamb - 3B, at SDP ($3,700)
Corey Seager - SS, vs COL ($3,600)
Kyle Freeland is the perfect recipe to get Seager out of this mini-slump he appears to be in. As we're all aware, Seager is one of the most talented young hitters in the game, and he should be in the conversation nearly always, especially at this favorable price point. You see, Seager has been putting the barrel on the ball quite a bit - smashing it, really - but he's been the victim of some bad luck. Over the past 15 days, he sports a very impressive average batted ball distance of 245 feet and a hard hit rate of 53%. I like my chances with him in this spot tonight.
Also Consider: Trevor Story - SS, at LAD ($3,200) - GPP only
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Mark Trumbo - OF, at CIN ($3,600)
I mentioned Trumbo as one of my favorite (if not THE favorite) players in the Orioles stack(s) I will deploy tonight. I happen to like Trumbo enough, though, to deploy him on his own. His matchup is a particularly strong one, seeing as Cincinnati is a great park for power hitters and Bronson Arroyo greatly struggles with right-handed hitters. Trumbo is a reverse splits guy, and he's had excellent righty-righty splits in the past year, posting a .376 wOBA and a .295 ISO.
Michael Conforto - OF, vs PHI ($2,700)
Conforto has been extra valuable this season when facing right-handed pitching, a group he has fared well against for most of his young career. After sputtering out of the gate last year, Conforto finished the second half of 2016 strong and seems to have picked up right where he left off. He normally hits near the top of the order against righties, which helps to raise his floor, and he owns home run upside as well with his .243 ISO splits.
Bryce Harper - OF, at ATL ($4,700)
The often-streaky Harper is heating up once again, fresh off a two home run performance - including a walkoff job - on Sunday afternoon. He isn't sporting the most noteworthy splits right now (over the past year, .349 wOBA and a .182 ISO), but he does have a favorable matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. For the last year, Folty has allowed a .420 wOBA to left-handed hitters, which bodes well for Harper and a number of his teammates.
Also Consider: Keon Broxton - OF, at CHC ($2,900)
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