Daily Fantasy College Football: FanDuel Picks for 11/28
The FanDuel operators are getting pretty stingy here in the closing weeks of the college football season. For the second week in a row, we're selecting players from just 14 games, as opposed to the normal 15+ we had throughout the earlier parts of the season. To make rostering even more difficult, there are a bevy of stud defenses featured in this contest, including but not limited to: Michigan, Clemson, Alabama, Utah and Georgia.
As such, we'll have to get pretty creative and dig deep to find guys with high enough ceilings that you could potentially win a GPP with said guys in your lineup. Of the 14 games, just four of the them have Vegas over/under above 60 points. Those four games are: SMU at Memphis (73), UNC at NC State (64.5), UCLA at USC (63) and Iowa State at West Virginia (61). While those are fairly attractive over/under totals, usually we've got six or more games with numbers that high. Memphis and UNC stacks are likely to be so popular that if there was ever a week to go contrarian in tournament formats, this might be it.
Let's get to it, shall we?
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Using the metrics Football Outsiders provides in their defensive S&P+ ranks, I've built a list of the worst pass defenses playing in this noon slate. I'll be targeting quarterbacks and wide receivers matching up against SMU, Kentucky, South Carolina, NC State, Memphis, Virginia and Colorado, as all of these teams rank 72nd or worse in the country in defending the pass.
Paxton Lynch (QB, Memphis) - $7,800
The one thing that concerns me about rostering Lynch is the spread of this game, with Memphis favored by three touchdowns, which might mean not a whole lot of passing in the second half. On the flip side, he's priced pretty cheap and SMU's pass defense is the worst in this slate. With that matchup knowledge in mind, I think he might be able to exceed his price implied value by halftime.
Matt Davis (QB, SMU) - $7,700
The things that concern me about adding Lynch to my lineup is exactly what excites me about Davis. If the game ends up anything like what Vegas has predicted, SMU will be behind the entire game and their offense should have the pedal to the floor for 48 minutes. Davis is a dual-threat quarterback and even if he struggles through the air, he should have little trouble finding running lanes against a mediocre run defense.
Also Consider: Marquise Williams (QB, UNC) - $9,400
FanDuel CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Interested in knowing who the worst run defenses are for this group of games? I thought so. In order of worst to mediocre (less worse?) they are: SMU, UNC, South Carolina, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Kentucky and Virginia.
Joseph Williams (RB, Utah) - $6,000
With stud running back Devonate Parker lost to injury, Joseph Williams is a juicy play Saturday. He's very under priced when you consider the matchup, as Colorado has had little success in stopping the run this season. Williams is in line for a big day as long as has his number called 15+ times.
Doroland Dorceus (RB, Memphis) - $5,400
The number of carries Dorceus sees game in and game out is too inconsistent to consider him in cash games, but he has the upside, cheap price tag and weak opponent to make him a fine GPP play. Memphis is a three touchdown favorite and if they're able to get the lead early, Dorceus and the rest of the Memphis running back committee could see plenty of additional carries in kill-the-clock mode.
Nyheim Hines (RB, NC State) - $4,800
In case it wasn't already apparent, I'm approaching running back selection with a high risk, high reward angle. The Tarheels have a real hard time slowing down the run and this game figures to be high scoring, which certainly raises Hines' ceiling. He's become a bigger piece of this offense since Matthew Dayes went down to injury and as a bonus, Hines factors into the passing game, too. He's coming off a career week with 139 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
FanDuel CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
To be perfectly honest, there aren't a lot of guys in this section that intrigue me. It's not that the section is devoid of playmakers, but the ones on here don't have the best matchups. I've listed my *favorites* below in order of preference.
- Jordan Payton (WR, UCLA) - $6,300
- Isaiah Ford (WR, VTech) - $6,100
- Jamari Staples (WR, Louisville) - $5,600
- Anthony Miller (WR, Memphis) - $6,100
FanDuel CFB DFS Tight End Picks
Jordan Leggett (TE, Clemson) - $3,100
Leggett hasn't produced a whole lot of points the past two weeks, but he's more than capable of having a big day. In digging through his stats, you'll find he's had a few big games this season and accounts for a fairly high percentage of Clemson's passing offense, at least in the number of targets he gets each game. South Carolina's pass defense is abysmal and Leggett should find a lot of soft spots streaking down the middle of the field on Saturday.
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