Welcome to our Falcons vs. Jaguars fantasy football start 'em, sit' em matchups analysis article for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.
Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!
This game is being played in London at 9:30 am ET so be sure to get those lineups set!
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -3.0
Implied Total: Falcons (23) vs. Jaguars (20)
Pace: Falcons (11th) vs. Jaguars (12th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -23.8% Pass (28th), 0.6% Rush (9th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 2.2% Pass (22nd), -10.5% Rush (22nd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 20.0% Pass (22nd), -17.0% Rush (10th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 23.0% Pass (25th), -32.3% Rush (4th)
Matchups We Love
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL)
Somehow Robinson continues to find his way to the top of the matchups almost every week. Something he struggled to do last week though was rack up yards and average over five yards per carry.
It's not his fault because the defense didn't believe Desmond Ridder could beat them, which was accurate, but it does pose concerns for future matchups that are difficult on the ground. Thankfully, Jacksonville is not a stout defense in any facet. He should bounce back just fine, especially with his involvement as a receiver.
As for Tyler Allgeier, he did emerge as a pass-catcher but the struggles of the offense meant a subpar day for him as well. He's still in the flex range, but Week 1's production may go down as his best all season, even excluding the touchdowns.
UPDATE: Cordarrelle Patterson is listed as active for Sunday's game.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
Etienne Jr. was one of only a few bright spots for the Jaguars, who outright forgot to show up against Houston. It was a little disappointing that he couldn't find the end zone, partially because of Tank Bigsby, but his role as a receiver made up for that. Atlanta's in the bottom 10 in rush yards allowed per attempt and ranks 22nd in rush DVOA. Etienne is locked in.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Zay Jones missed their contest, enabling Engram to lead the team in targets with eight. It resulted in his third straight top-10 finish, solidifying him as a strong option with a larger ceiling when one of their trio of receivers misses.
Matchups We Hate
None
Other Matchups
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
My concern for Lawrence's output was that they'd establish a lead and run a lot. The concerns were warranted but for a completely different reason. He flat-out let the team down and played poorly.
He's got a decent matchup this week, but we've yet to see him really put it all together for a breakout performance. He's an upside streamer who we know could deliver.
Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)
For the second consecutive game, it was Calvin Ridley who ended the day as the odd man out while Christian Kirk found the end zone and bested him in receptions and yards. It's not to say these two are players to move off of, but the potential top-15 receiver we envisioned may not be there season-long.
And at this point, if it is, it's looking more like Kirk. They're each in the top 24 given the matchup, with increased volatility if Jones is active. After back-to-back missed practices, Jones seems likely to miss again.
UPDATE: Jones is officially out as expected.
Drake London (WR, ATL) and Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
The Falcons have made their hay on bullying their opponents and enforcing their will. Dan Campbell's Lions are not the team that works against. Detroit played physically at the line of scrimmage, daring Ridder to beat them downfield.
They did throw the ball 38 times, which is more than any of their 2022 games. However, of those 38 passes, 17 went to the tight ends and nine went to the backfield. They still wouldn't air it out, as evidenced by Ridder's 5.3 yards per attempt. Kyle Pitts had a serviceable game with five receptions for 41 yards, but Jonnu Smith was right there with him, hauling in five balls for 37 yards with one additional target.
The matchup is good enough to make Drake London a boom-bust flex play, whose boom weeks are still outside the top 20, and Pitts a streamer because the tight end position is so desolate.
Notable Injuries
Zay Jones (knee) - OUT
Jamal Agnew (quad) - OUT
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