Fact or Fiction: Surprising Fantasy Football Performances From Sam Darnold, Braelon Allen, Quentin Johnston, and more

Week 2 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the second week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll be looking at five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 2. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Sam Darnold - QB, Minnesota Vikings

Week 2 stats: 17-of-26 for 268 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, 32 rushing yards - overall QB4

The Vikings are 2-0 and Sam Darnold might just be good.

Of course, we've been here before, haven't we? In 2021, the Panthers started 3-0 behind Darnold's strong play, leading me to write a whole column about his rushing production and how it made him a high-end QB2.

I ended up being wrong then, but I'm ready to suggest this again: Darnold isn't going to be a top-10 QB or anything, but he's a solid QB2 who you can use as a streamer or bye-week replacement.

Darnold has completed 72.0% of his pass attempts this season and is playing with the best supporting cast he's ever had, and that's before T.J. Hockenson has come back. Darnold's always been a QB who can succeed when the situation is right, but the situation has just never been right. It appears it finally is.

Verdict: Fact-ish. Not a QB1, but I expect high-end QB2 play from Darnold

Braelon Allen - RB, New York Jets

Week 2 stats: seven carries for 33 yards and a touchdown, two catches for 23 yards and a touchdown - overall RB7

The Jets drafted Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen in the fourth round this year to add to a running back room that also features Breece Hall.

Still absolutely crazy Braelon Allen fell so far in the NFL Draft this year
pic.twitter.com/us7RSO7xiP

— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) September 15, 2024

Hall is the clear No. 1 option in this offense, but Allen saw a huge uptick in usage in Week 2 against the Titans. After having just one carry and one target in Week 1 against the 49ers, Allen had seven carries and four targets in Week 2. He found the end zone twice.

Let's get this out of the way first: Allen's not having two touchdowns in a game again. Or, well ... he could, but it's not something fantasy managers should count on.

Still, Allen could see decent usage as a way to spell Hall and keep him healthy. In Week 2, he played 35% of the team's snaps, and he had a decent chunk of opportunities. Sure, Hall had twice as many carries and twice as many targets, but Allen carved out something.

Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, getting half the opportunities of Hall sounds like the ceiling for Allen right now. I love him as a potential handcuff because he's a talented back, but he's nothing more than an RB4/5 option as long as Hall is healthy.

Verdict: Fiction

Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants

Week 2 stats: 18 targets, 10 receptions, 127 yards, one touchdown - overall WR3

Malik Nabers having a huge game isn't a surprise in and of itself. He was a very hyped prospect who went early in the 2024 NFL Draft, so an explosive game is definitely in his range of outcomes.

But I just wanted to talk a bit about the Giants offense, and doing so through the lens of Nabers was the way that made the most sense.

Not Malik Nabers killing this corner with the same inside stab move 2 times in the same drive 🙈 pic.twitter.com/x9yVW5RWuO

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) September 17, 2024

The Giants have struggled offensively through two games, but Daniel Jones FED Nabers against Washington last week. Nabers had 18 targets, catching 10 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown in the game. Jones threw 28 passes, so 18 of those going Nabers' way is intriguing. No one else had more than four.

It's weird to say it, but Nabers could be a WR1 in fantasy while the rest of his offense is complete and utter garbage. Like ... I guess running back Devin Singletary is going to be solid, but Jones might never throw for 200 yards in a game and yet he'll pepper Nabers with so many targets that he'll consistently produce.

Verdict: Fact

Quentin Johnston - WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Week 2 stats: six targets, five receptions, 51 yards, two touchdowns - overall WR9

The Chargers used to have one of the best wide receiver duos in the game with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but those two are playing elsewhere this season. That's left the team in a precarious spot. Entering the season with Joshua Palmer as your No. 1 wide receiver is RISKY.

Enter Quentin Johnston, the team's first-round pick last season out of TCU. Johnston had a very disappointing rookie year, which seemingly made everyone forget about him. But two weeks in, it looks like we're heading for a second-year breakout for him.

In Week 2, Johnston caught a pair of touchdowns and led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Notably, he had four more targets than Palmer did. And looking at snap rates, his 70% snap share led the team's wide receivers. Ladd McConkey was at 49% and Palmer at 43%.

So ... Johnston might be the No. 1 receiver for the Chargers with Justin Herbert throwing footballs to him??? Yes, he needs to be added off the waiver wire in a lot of places. He won't post WR1 numbers every week, but he'll have upside and flex appeal most weeks.

Verdict: Fact, mostly

Mike Gesicki - TE, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 2 stats: nine targets, seven receptions, 91 yards - overall TE4

The Week 1 tight-end apocalypse might still be a concern, but the position did look better in Week 2. Four players scored in double figures in half-PPR, one more than in Week 1, and 12 players had seven or more points, twice as many as last week.

One of the best showings came from Mike Gesicki, who was targeted nine times against the Chiefs, catching seven passes for 91 yards. He played under 50% of the team's snaps, though, which wasn't great to see.

Mike Gesicki had a great day yesterday. The Bengals used him on hi-lo concepts both to the middle of the field and outside and let him cook DBs one on one.

Tied for the 4th best yardage game of his career and definitely the best game he's had in general since 2021. pic.twitter.com/fQ5LdtV0zQ

— mike (@bengals_sans) September 16, 2024

With Tee Higgins out, the Bengals are desperate for production, so that also explains some of what we saw out of Gesicki this week. He might have fantasy TE1 appeal until we see Higgins back on the field, but he'll likely fall back into the murk of the tight-end position after that.

The team has too many other tight ends to juggle for Gesicki to maintain value once Joe Burrow isn't forced to look his way.

Verdict: Fiction, though it might be a temporary fact until Higgins is back

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