Fact or Fiction: Surprising Fantasy Football Performances From Justin Fields, Zack Moss, Logan Thomas, more

Week 5 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the fifth week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 5. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Justin Fields - QB, Chicago Bears

Week 5 stats: 15-for-29, 282 yards, four touchdowns, 11 carries, 57 yards - overall QB1

Through the first three games of the season, Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields was struggling. He'd thrown just three total touchdowns to four interceptions and he wasn't really getting a chance to use his legs much.

A couple of games later, he's still not really using his legs like he did last season, but he has suddenly found something with his arm. Over the past two games, Fields has thrown eight touchdown passes and just one interception. His yards per attempt have risen over the last two games. His highest over the first three games was 7.28; he's been over 9.5 in each of the past two contests.

I think the truth about Fields is somewhere in the middle of what we've seen this year. He's leading the NFL in touchdown percentage at 7.2%, a number that doesn't really feel super sustainable. He's also not as bad as he looked in Weeks 1-3. Per PlayerProfiler, he's 16th in accuracy rating this season and 18th in true passer rating, and honestly—that feels about right when it comes to making sense of him as a passer.

He's an average quarterback who can add a lot of value with his legs. His deep passing this year has been really strong as well, but it's another thing that doesn't seem quite as sustainable as it's been. I don't think he keeps boosting his fantasy value with four touchdown games, but I also think at some point the Bears have to utilize him better as a runner, right?

Verdict: Undecided

Zack Moss - RB, Indianapolis Colts

Week 5 stats: 23 carries, 165 yards, two touchdowns, two receptions, 30 yards - overall RB2

Jonathan Taylor returned from the Injured Reserve this week. A Colts running back rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns this week as well. Surely, that means Jonathan Taylor rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns, right?

Nope. It was actually Zack Moss, who most people thought wouldn't be playable in fantasy after Taylor returned. He had 23 carries to Taylor's six carries, and two targets to Taylor's one. Moss played 80% of Indianapolis' snaps, while Taylor played 15%.

I think it's pretty obvious what this all means. There are, IMO, two main takeaways from this game.

1. Zack Moss is going to have a role going forward for the Colts.
2. That role's not going to look like it did in Week 5.

Moss is a solid running back. He's played extremely well when given opportunities this year and currently sits third in the league in rushing yards. The problem is that Jonathan Taylor just signed a three-year, $42 million extension with the Colts on Saturday. He's Indianapolis' top running back. He was brought along slowly in his first game back, but he's going to overtake Moss in snaps. If not this week, then soon. This was a great game for Moss, but don't expect his numbers to continue to look like this.

Verdict: Fiction

George Pickens - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 5 stats: 10 targets, six catches, 130 yards, one touchdown - overall WR4

For the second time this year, George Pickens had over 100 yards in a game. He caught six of his 10 targets against the Ravens this week for 130 yards and a touchdown. Earlier in the season, he caught four of his six targets for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Browns.

Pickens has shown he's a good wide receiver. I want to make it clear that I'd really love his fantasy value in a better spot.

With Diontae Johnson set to return after the Week 6 bye week, I just don't see this Steelers offense being able to support Pickens from a fantasy perspective. Among all quarterbacks to take at least 100 snaps, Kenny Pickett has the third-worst completion percentage and averages the fourth-fewest fantasy points. I just don't see Pickett being a QB who can get Pickens the ball enough once Johnson's back for him to consistently post big numbers.

Verdict: Fiction

Logan Thomas - TE, Washington Commanders

Week 5 stats: 11 targets, nine catches, 77 yards, one touchdown - overall TE6

I was fairly high on Logan Thomas this offseason because the Commanders hired Eric Bieniemy, who had a lot of experience working with a dynamic tight end when he was in KC. Logan Thomas is no Travis Kelce, but he's got a few similar traits.

Thomas has flashed some big-play potential in the past, but injuries have been an issue. In 2020, he was targeted 110 times, catching 72 passes for 670 yards and six touchdowns, but he was limited to just six games in 2021. Last year, he just didn't really look 100%. He's already missed a game this season.

When he's been on the field, he's been solid. He has 40-plus receiving yards in three of the four games that he's played, and he scored a touchdown in the other. Health is always a concern, but Thomas can be a low-end TE1 as long as he stays on the field.

Verdict: Fact, If He Stays Healthy

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