RADIO
Week 4 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the fourth week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?
Every week, I'll be looking at five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.
Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 4. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?
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Justin Fields - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 4 stats: 22-of-34 for 312 yards and one touchdown pass, 10 carries for 55 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns - overall QB1
Justin Fields wasn't even supposed to be the starting quarterback for the Steelers this season, but a Russell Wilson injury opened the door for Fields to start at the beginning of the season. He has the Steelers 3-1 on the year and doesn't look like he's going to hand the starting role back anytime soon.
Fields isn't known for his passing prowess. He's never completed more than 61.4% of his passes in a season before, but he's suddenly completing 70.6% of his passes this season.
it's still not all totally clean, but Justin Fields keeps looking more confident and cutting out mistakes every week. pic.twitter.com/vsnDg48Kky
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 1, 2024
A big part of that is that the Steelers have game planned to take difficult throws away from Fields. He has the eighth-fewest intended air yards per throw among qualifying QBs at 6.4, whereas last year in Chicago he was at 8.5.
Those easy throws minimize risk. They also usually minimize how much passing yardage upside there is, though on occasion you'll see a performance like we saw in Week 4, with Fields throwing for 312 yards.
But even if a 300-yard passing game will be rare for Fields, he has three rushing touchdowns over the past two games and has at least six carries in each contest. Fields can make a lot happen with his legs when he gets the chance, and the Steelers are giving him that chance.
Verdict: More fact than fiction
D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears
Week 4 stats: 16 carries for 93 yards, one touchdown, seven receptions for 72 yards - overall RB3
Oh hey, D'Andre Swift exists!
After a very disappointing start to the season that saw Swift never go above 50 scrimmage yards, the former Lions and Eagles running back had his best game of the year by far against the Rams, finishing with 165 scrimmage yards and his first touchdown of the season.
Last season, Swift had his first 1,000-yard rushing season in Philly and hopes were high for a repeat this year as he came over to a Bears team that looked to be very talented offensively.
But the offensive line has let this whole team down and Swift just hasn't been able to consistently get things going. He's a much better player than he looked over the first three weeks of the season, but he also won't have a game like he did in Week 4 very often.
The truth is somewhere in the middle, which is an improvement over what we thought the case was for Swift a week ago, at least.
Verdict: Fiction, but his start to the year was also Fiction, you know?
Chase Brown - RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 4 stats: 15 carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns, two catches for 12 yards - overall RB5
People were high on Chase Brown coming into the year. The second-year running back flashed a lot of potential as a rookie, and he was expected to see plenty of usage this season behind Zack Moss.
That hadn't necessarily happened until Week 4. Brown came into the week with 14 carries on the season. Against Carolina, he saw 15 carries, finishing with 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
It was a pretty big jump in usage, as he tied Moss for the team lead in carries in the same. But Moss also set a new season-high in carries in this one, so really this all felt more like a game script thing. That makes me hesitant as far as projecting Brown to have caught up to Moss on the depth chart.
Verdict: Fiction, but he's improving
Dontayvion Wicks - WR, Green Bay Packers
Week 4 stats: 13 targets with five catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns - overall WR3
Early on in Sunday's loss to the Vikings, the Packers lost Christian Watson to an ankle injury. With Watson sidelined, Dontayvion Wicks was a major beneficiary. He was targeted a team-high 13 times, catching five passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
"I think this is the best wide receiver add you're going to find on waivers all year."
Dontayvion Wicks immediately slots in as a Top-36 WR in fantasy football 🚀 pic.twitter.com/x0xSB5OdV4
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) October 1, 2024
With Watson expected to miss some time, Wicks should continue to see strong usage, but it's not like he won't have competition for targets. Jayden Reed caught seven of his eight targets for 139 yards and a touchdown this week. Romeo Doubs had eight targets. Even tight end Tucker Kraft got in on the action with nine targets.
Still, Wicks showcased his talent this week and he should have plenty of opportunities while Watson is sidelined. Maybe he isn't a WR1, but he's an upside WR3 play until Watson returns.
Verdict: Fact-ish until Watson is back
Cade Otton - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 4 stats: nine targets with six receptions for 52 yards - overall TE11
Look, I think we can ignore Cade Otton's finishing as a low-end TE1 this week. He was targeted nine times, catching six passes for 52 yards.
It's been a tale of two seasons for Otton. Over the first two games, he combined for five yards on one reception. Over the last two, he's at 13 catches for 99 yards.
Otton is a solid NFL tight end, but those first two games make me way too nervous. His 17 targets over the past two games are enticing, but if his best performance barely gets him into the TE1 tier and his worst performances feature him scoring zero fantasy points, well...
Verdict: Fiction ... I think...
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