Fact or Fiction: Surprising Fantasy Football Performances From David Montgomery, Michael Wilson, Allen Lazard, more

Week 4 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the third week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 4. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?

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David Montgomery - RB, Detroit Lions

Week 4 stats: 32 carries, 121 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, two receptions, two targets, 20 receiving yards - overall RB2

David Montgomery suffered a quad injury in Week 2 against the Seahawks and was held out of the team's Week 3 win over the Falcons. You might think that the team would have eased him back in a little last Thursday night when the Lions took on Green Bay, but you'd be wrong. Instead, Montgomery tied his career high for carries with 32 of them, finishing with 121 yards and three touchdowns. He also caught two passes for 20 yards.

So, what does that mean? Well, Montgomery has played two full games this season and he's taken over 70% of Detroit's snaps in both games. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs just hasn't found his footing yet for the Lions. He looked fine in the one game that Montgomery missed, gaining 80 rushing yards on 17 carries, but with Montgomery in the lineup, his usage appears capped.

Conventional wisdom is that Gibbs will siphon off more work at some point. He has the draft capital. his college tape was really good, and he already has 18 targets. For now, Montgomery is getting the bulk of the work in Detroit. He's fifth in the league in rushing yards per game. He's a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 play until Gibbs starts getting more work.

Verdict: Fact, Until Gibbs Gets More Involved...If That Even Happens

Michael Wilson - WR, Arizona Cardinals

Week 4 stats: seven receptions, seven targets, 76 yards, two touchdowns - overall WR6

Michael Wilson, a rookie out of Stanford, came into Sunday's game against the 49ers with a couple of solid outings, albeit ones that came on low volume. In Week 2 against the Giants, he caught all three of his targets for 56 yards, and then in Week 3 against Dallas, he caught both of his targets for 86 yards.

This week, his usage shifted pretty dramatically. Instead of getting a couple of deep targets, Wilson made his money in the short and medium-yardage game. He was targeted seven times, a career-high. He caught all seven, finishing with 76 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

It was a good game for Wilson and it continued the upward trajectory that he's been on. It's enough to convince me to add Wilson off the waiver wire in any league where I can get my hands on him.

I also want to temper my expectations. It was good to see the way Wilson was used, but he was still behind Rondale Moore in snaps. And with no signs of Kyler Murray returning soon, it looks like Joshua Dobbs will continue on as the Cardinals starter. And Dobbs, well...this last game was his first multi-touchdown game ever. Sure, part of that is because he's only made six career starts, but it's not like Dobbs is a rookie. He was drafted in 2017. It's nice to see him get a shot this year, but it's hard to know if we should trust this offense.

I like Wilson, but he's probably going to be a matchup-dependent flex option and nothing more.

Verdict: Little Bit Of Fact, Little Bit Of Fiction

Allen Lazard - WR, New York Jets

Week 4 stats: three catches, three targets, 61 yards, one touchdown - overall WR9

There was some hope for Allen Lazard this season. He joined his former Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in heading to the Jets and with Garrett Wilson on the other side of the field, there was a chance to eat as the Packers' second wideout.

But, well...we all know what happened. Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1. Zach Wilson took over as the starter and Lazard just didn't really do much over the first three games.

He had his best outing of the season on Sunday against the Chiefs, though. Lazard finished the game with three catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. All three numbers either tied or set new season highs. That's great...just not really encouraging. Lazard hasn't had more than three catches in any game this season, and his best performance came in a game where Wilson looked abnormally good.

Simply put, Lazard's not consistent enough to be worth fantasy consideration right now, much less to consistently finish as a WR1 as he did against the Chiefs.

Verdict: Fiction

Cole Kmet - TE, Chicago Bears

Week 4 stats: seven receptions, nine targets, 85 yards, two touchdowns- overall TE1

It was the moment that Bears fans have been waiting for: a breakout Cole Kmet game. The Notre Dame product was targeted nine times, catching seven passes for 85 yards and two touchdowns.

The 85 yards were the most for Kmet since he had 87 yards back in November 2021. It was the third multi-touchdown game of his career.

Look, I still believe Kmet's got talent. This week was a special occasion—he was facing the Broncos defense. Denver has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the fifth-most to tight ends. It was a perfect storm for Kmet to have a big showing.

When it comes down to it, the Bears' passing offense is still a work in progress. Kmet was held under 50 yards in each of the team's first three games and I don't really see reason to expect any different going forward.

Verdict: Fiction

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