FAB Bidding - Week 9 Waiver Wire Targets

The passing of Week 8 means we're halfway through traditional fantasy football seasons and waist-deep in bye-week chaos. With our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

Week 8 brought injuries to George Kittle, Kenny Golladay, T.Y. Hilton, among others. And now we must absorb the Bengals, Browns, Chargers, and Eagles going on bye. With that in mind, here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 9, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Drew Lock (QB, DEN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

10% rostered

Lock had a quiet Week 8 going until the Broncos stampeded to a 31-30 comeback victory over the Chargers, who are entering Falcons territory re: blowing leads. After two straight games with zero passing TDs and two interceptions, Lock completed 26-of-41 passes for 248 yards, three TDs, and one pick. He still has a poor 4:5 TD/INT ratio in his injury-shortened 2020 but faces the aforementioned Falcons Defense in Week 9 within Atlanta’s dome.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

28% rostered

I know the Vikings are 99% Dalvin Cook, but Cousins and his elite duo of wide receivers are home in the dome against Detroit for a divisional tilt. It’s not a great week for streaming QBs but if you need help covering byes then Cousins, who just completed 11-of-14 passes for 160 yards and a TD, fits the mold of a top-16 option. People may overreact to Dalvin Cook getting all of the scores and pass over Cousins, forgetting that Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are capable of ushering him to QB1 territory.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Matt Breida (RB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 15-20%***
Jordan Howard (RB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

19% rostered & 18% rostered

Very quickly as I'm running around today (Tuesday), Myles Gaskin is expected to miss three weeks with an MCL sprain and that vaults Breida into the expected starter's role. His versatility as runner and receiver give him a solid projection floor in all formats, but there's no ruling out that Jordan Howard doesn't vulture goal-line carries and Patrick Laird likely spells some passing work. Your FAB action will depend on immediate need and whether you're in standard or PPR (as should be true with all FAB dealings, but Breida highlights that). Miami also traded a sixth-round pick to Kansas City for DeAndre Washington but he'll need time to get up to speed.

***Breida did not practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury, which thrusts Howard into the spotlight. Breida still has the higher upside but is a risk with the DNP.

Injury updates on #Dolphins top two running backs: Myles Gaskin (knee) and Matt Breida (hamstring) both did not practice Wednesday

Here’s the full report pic.twitter.com/PaGp6Nl4R6

— Josh Tolentino (@JCTSports) November 4, 2020

DeeJay Dallas (RB, SEA) - FAB Bid: 8-12%

25% rostered

Dallas was pushed to 79% of Seattle’s snaps with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde out while Travis Homer was heavily limited. Dallas only got 41 rushing yards on 18 carries but had a TD and five catches for 17 yards and another score through the air for a top-five week. Seattle toyed with San Francisco, who suffered their own spree of injuries yet again, and now we know Dallas can carry the load if Carson/Hyde miss Week 9 at Buffalo. It’s a short-term play but he’s a top-20 RB attached to Russell Wilson’s offense.

Jordan Wilkins (RB, IND) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

2% rostered

I know, how did we not see this coming? Wilkins blew away the Lions with 113 yards, a TD, and a two-point conversion on Sunday, racking up 21 touches in the process. That dwarfed Nyheim Hines’ 10 touches and Jonathan Taylor’s 13 touches. And of course, Taylor gets stuffed at the goal line and Wilkins waltzes right in on the next play. Then we learned that Taylor is dealing with an ankle injury.

Reich said Jonathan Taylor has a ‘little bit of an ankle’ issue.

But it didn’t come up during the game. Something Reich learned after.

— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) November 2, 2020

Depending on the severity of that and T.Y. Hilton’s injury, Indy’s RB committee may do even more lifting than usual against Baltimore in Week 9. I think Wilkins is a weak flex play considering the volatility of a hot-hand approach plus a bad matchup, but RB is a thin position right now.

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

30% rostered

Edwards saw 16 carries and one target next to J.K. Dobbins getting 15 carries and two targets, highlighting the 50/50 split with Mark Ingram out. Edwards would tally a 16-87-1 day on the ground while Dobbins recorded 121 yards of his own, making both solid plays but Dobbins is appropriately rostered in 68% of Yahoo leagues. Edwards may be more TD-dependent but Baltimore is a high-scoring team, making the Gus Bus a healthy add even in 12-team formats heading into a road game at Indianapolis.

Cam Akers (RB, LAR) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

31% rostered

Akers rushed the ball nine times for 35 yards, adding a 19-yard catch for a decent day in relief of the hurt Darrell Henderson, who re-aggravated his thigh injury. He’ll have their Week 9 bye to heal up but if he’s out or limited for Week 10 against Seattle then Akers would be a low-end RB2 alongside Malcolm Brown. You could liken that potential split to what we just saw from Baltimore if that helps orient you. Brown may play more snaps (he hit 60% in Week 8) but Akers is where the fantasy ceiling lies. I recognize this is a tough time to hold such a speculative add through the bye, but some are desperate for RB stock.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI) - FAB Bid: 12-15%

24% rostered

It took less than a quarter of play for Reagor to find the endzone on Sunday night, reminding us all of his electricity. Carson Wentz and the Eagles won’t have cupcake matchups like Dallas all season long, but the NFC East provides some laughers and Reagor/Travis Fulgham are a potent 1-2 punch. Dallas Goedert will get his and Alshon Jeffery/Zach Ertz will return in time, but Reagor will be a key part of this offense throughout 2020.

Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

13% rostered

Gage is coming off a quiet Week 8 (2-25-0), but Calvin Ridley is in danger of missing Week 9 versus Denver with a foot injury. This elevates Gage to WR3/flex territory in an Atlanta offense that flows through Matt Ryan (61% pass rate, 10th-highest in NFL).  While Gage has cooled since Weeks 1 and 2, we can’t forget that he combined for 15 catches, 160 yards, and a TD in those games. I still can't believe in Todd Gurley and Atlanta's rushing attack to be the reason they win, so Gage will have to step up against the Broncos in Week 9.

Kendrick Bourne (WR, SF) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

8% rostered

Bourne feasted on the soft Seattle secondary for 81 yards on eight catches (10 targets) with San Francisco in a negative gamescript throughout Week 8. No Deebo Samuel meant Bourne was already in a good spot, but George Kittle’s injury and yet another RB down in Tevin Coleman (again) meant Bourne bore even more responsibility. It’s a quick turnaround for SF as they face Green Bay this Thursday, and you know angry Aaron Rodgers will force gas-pedal offense from San Fran. Perhaps he won’t see another 10 targets but it should be close.

Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR) - FAB Bid: 5-7%

20% rostered

Samuel scored twice on seven touches in a sloppy loss to Atlanta on Thursday, rushing for 23 yards and logging another 31 through the air. It’s encouraging to see Carolina engineering touches for the versatile Samuel, who also rushed for a TD in Week 7, but it’s fair to worry about his involvement once Christian McCaffrey returns. I really hope they don't lose sight of an emerging weapon who's one of the fastest in the NFL.

A look at the rest of the top 5:

1) Tyreek Hill - 10.63 MPH
2) Curtis Samuel - 10.15 MPH
3) Kenny Stills - 9.96 MPH
4) Tim Patrick - 9.90 MPH
5) Mecole Hardman - 9.88 MPH

The #Chiefs feature two receivers in the top five fastest WRs on go routes within 1 second this season.

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 28, 2020

Carolina should need all hands on deck to keep up with the Chiefs in Week 9 so flex Samuel in deeper leagues and hope he isn’t erased by CMC.

Marvin Hall (WR, DET) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

0% rostered

With Kenny Golladay leaving Week 8 with a hip injury, Hall stepped up with a team-high 113 yards on four catches (seven targets). It was Marvin Jones Jr. who scored two receiving TDs but the usage is encouraging for Hall while Danny Amendola remained in his slot role. Hall played 42-of-61 snaps, one more than Amendola, and rewarded coaches with the triple-digit day. The Marvin stack takes on the Vikings in Week 9 should Golladay be out or limited, with Hall’s plus speed making him a Ted Ginn-style burner in a game with an early Over/Under from Vegas of 54 -- one of the highest on the slate.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Logan Thomas (TE, WAS) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

21% rostered

Thomas returns off the bye seeking his third straight game with a touchdown, having gone 3-42-1 and 4-60-1 in his last two. After averaging eight targets per game in Washington’s first three contests, he’s seen exactly four looks in four consecutive games. As long as they’re high-value looks then I’m okay with it, especially with the low bar set at TE in 2020. A rematch with the Giants, who he got for 42 yards and a score in Week 6, should leave fantasy teams satisfied.

Trey Burton (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

22% rostered

Burton only had nine receiving yards after recording 58 yards and a receiving TD in Week 6, but replicated his rushing TD from the Wildcat to placate fantasy rosters. It’s not ideal to see Burton, Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox all get four targets, but if T.Y. Hilton misses time then we’ll surely see loads of two-TE sets from Frank Reich and company. Those who don't trust Jordan Wilkins can pivot to Burton as Indy's RB next man up.

Jordan Reed (TE, SF) - FAB Bid: 3-4%
Ross Dwelley (TE, SF) - FAB Bid: 1-2% 

3% & 1% rostered

Dwelley only caught 1-of-4 targets on Sunday, but it was a 16-yard touchdown so we’ll take it. The 49ers absorbed more injuries in Week 8, with George Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo’s ankle injuries highlighting the report. Kittle was able to limp off but is now reportedly out for eight weeks with a broken bone in his foot. This elevates Dwelley to top-20 value if Jordan Reed isn’t ready to go yet. Regardless, Reed is a solid stash even with Nick Mullens at QB and I’d pay up for his long-term services down the stretch.

Albert Okwuegbunam (TE, DEN) - FAB Bid: 0-1% 

1% rostered

Okwuegbunam made his one Week 8 target count with a nine-yard score on Sunday, helping Denver to their 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers. Noah Fant returned to the spotlight with nine targets but Denver might need both of them in a green-light matchup with the Falcons in Week 9. This is only for those in dire straits but the game script expectation aligns with recent results to be worth a flier.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Houston Texans Defense (at JAX) - 4% rostered - FAB Bid: 3-4%
Washington Football Team Defense (vs. NYG) - 13% - FAB Bid: 1-2%
New York Giants Defense (at WAS) - 11% - FAB Bid: 1-2%

I know the Texans aren’t an impressive defense, but the matchup against a rookie Jake Luton is too good to miss. The Jags aren’t good enough to support poor QB play and the Texans offense should put them in a hole quickly, leaving Luton in a Ben DiNucci-like situation. 

If you can’t scoop them then re-run the WAS-NYG game. When those teams met in Week 6, the Giants had three sacks with an INT, a fumble recovery, and a TD next to 19 points allowed, while Washington only gave up 14 points with a sack and a pick.

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