X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Exploring Stuff Metrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Nick Lodolo - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Jon Anderson looks into some of the newest metrics in baseball and sees which pitchers stand out for 2023 fantasy baseball.

In the days of Statcast, we have new metrics hitting the line every year. There are so many different things we can do with the publically available data that comes out of the Statcast system.

One thing a lot of people have done is begin to isolate pitcher performance only by the movement details of the pitches they throw. This completely takes the batter out of it and gives us a better picture of what a pitcher is doing all by himself. There are positives and negatives to all of this, but undoubtedly these are interesting and useful statistics.

The long and short of it goes like this. With computer modeling, we can isolate pitch movement (release point, velocity, acceleration, where it crosses the plate, etc.) and then look at a huge sample of very similar pitches to determine what is most likely to happen with that pitch. For example, if a slider is thrown with a lot of horizontal movement and lands just an inch or so outside of the strike zone away from a right-handed batter, the chances of that pitch resulting in a swing-and-miss will be pretty high. The system assigns this probability and many more for every pitch just based on the movement - and from there we can see how pitchers are performing overall.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

A popular way to do this is to separate into three categories.

  1. A "stuff" category. This is just about the movement of the pitch.
  2. A "location" category. This is about the location of the pitch.
  3. An overall "pitching" category. This combines the two above.

These all end up with numerical scores, with 100 being the average.

It's not super common to see this data since it's relatively new and requires a lot of advanced computer modeling. I was lucky enough to run into a guy who can do it, and that's the data I am looking at for these purposes. His name is Drew and you can follow him on Twitter here.

 

How Do They Correlate?

The reason we can run into trouble here is if we start holding these granular stats above long-time proven statistics like K-BB%. That will continue to be my gold standard. The good news is that these statistics do correlate:

 

It's far from a perfect correlation (around .68), but you can see the trend upward there (Pitching+ on the y-axis, K-BB% on the x-axis). Stuff+ correlates more with the strikeout rate since it doesn't consider the locations of the pitches at all:

The way I'm mostly using these statistics is for players with smaller samples. If we have a full season or more worth of data for a pitcher, I'm just going to trust the K-BB% over these more advanced metrics. However, for younger pitchers that we haven't seen a ton of, we can get a little bit of signal from these statistics since they stabilize extremely quickly (if a guy throws five fastballs, you've seen his fastball - that's pretty much how it's going to move every time).

So once again, shout out to Drew for modeling this and letting me use his data. You can check it all out here on this web app he developed. Let's get into the numbers!

 

Top Pitchers Leaguewide by Stuff

Pitcher Stuff Location Pitching
Josh Hader 206 93 112
Pete Fairbanks 179 102 118
James Karinchak 176 95 105
Kenley Jansen 175 100 116
Emmanuel Clase 171 104 117
Jordan Hicks 168 93 99
Liam Hendriks 167 96 106
Matt Brash 167 97 103
Ryan Helsley 167 96 109
Colin Poche 166 94 107

So this certainly checks out with some of the league's toughest relievers at the top of the "stuff" leaderboards. We aren't as concerned with relievers, but the same trend continues if you limit it to starters. The top stuff marks for players that exceeded 100 innings last year were Corbin Burnes, Shohei Ohtani, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, and Dylan Cease. Bonafide aces.

Now let's drill into some players that stand out the most.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
114 139 100 106

In case we needed any more hype on Hunter Greene, he is a standout here. His stuff is 39% better than the league average and there are no issues currently with his locations. We pretty much already knew this since we've seen him regularly hitting 100 miles per hour with his fastball and earning that 30.9% K% last year.

Everybody knows Greene is filthy, but here's some more evidence of it just in case you needed it.

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
119 133 100 107

Another non-surprising name here, but I want to give you all of these names with elite stuff marks but lower ADPs. Snell is going around pick 120 these days, and with the injury and command troubles we have seen from him in the past, that makes sense. However, he stayed mostly healthy last year (128 innings) and improved on the command (9.5% BB%, league average location value above).

He has the potential to put up an ace season in 2023, and you don't have to pay a ton for him.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
126 127 98 98

He is a step behind teammate Greene, but another standout in these advanced metrics. Lodolo is super tough to hit, but he does have a bit of a history of high walk rates, although it wasn't much of an issue in the Majors last year at 8.5%. The plus with Lodolo is that he's a ground-ball pitcher as his most common pitch is the sinker. That's a pretty big help in Great American Ballpark, so you might want to take him over Greene and Snell for those reasons - and he goes 10 or so picks behind these guys.

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
153 140 98 104

Very few starting pitchers have better stuff ratings than May, but it's the same old story here with the injury and command questions. He has not thrown anything close to a full season in professional baseball since 2019, which is a concern. However, it's another massive upside option here and this time it's after pick 150.

Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
172 101 105 109

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
185 118 103 105

Two guys in a very similar boat here. Springs and Rasmussen both had breakout seasons last year, entering the Rays rotation and pitching very well. Neither of them blows you off the page with their strikeout numbers, but they are both pretty strong and you can see them trading out as above average in all three respects here - that's a very good sign, and it makes their price tags look pretty questionable.

Garrett Whitlock, Boston Red Sox

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
292 126 100 106

Whitlock did not get great results as a starter, but the pitches still modeled very well. And yes, the numbers above are only from the games he was in the starter role. He is one of my potential breakout SPs, and this makes me feel pretty good about that!

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
291 125 96 101

Kopech has a live arm and really can do some crazy things with the fastball when he needs it (ramped up to 99 miles per hour a few times last year). The metrics here paint a pretty picture, but nothing else that came out of his 2022 season really gave us a ton of reason for optimism. He has a long history of injury and a limited pitch arsenal, but here is some evidence that he could have a much better go at it in 2023.

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
320 122 97 99

Another one of my breakout pitcher picks, Bello stands out by the stuff metrics. He has an elite changeup and a good, heavy sinker. I like his prospects for the future a bunch, but he does have some trouble with command (10.1% BB% last year across all levels). I'm not assured that he will have a useful fantasy season in 2023, but I know the price is way cheap enough to take a shot at it.

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
372 123 99 98

Bradish was a trendy breakout pick last year as he debuted early in the season, but he struggled mightily with a 4.90 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a low 22% K%. He performed better over his last seven starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP - however, that was without any improvement in the K% (21%). I don't really know what to think about Bradish, but the stuff metrics seem to imply there's some upside here.

Ken Waldichuk, Oakland Athletics

ADP Stuff Location Pitching
388 115 96 102

Waldichuk goes really late in drafts despite the positive numbers he showed us last year and that we see here. The reason for that is because of the concerns about innings, wins, and quality starts being a young pitcher on a very bad team. The arsenal doesn't seem to be a problem here, and he might just be the bright spot of another bad 2023 season for the A's.

There you have it, a bunch of cheap pitchers with upside to consider for 2023. Hope you enjoyed this piece, talk to you next time!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Year In Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
A.J. Puk

Likely To Miss Multiple Months
Marquis Grissom Jr.

Notches Fifth Save At Double-A
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Records Third Save
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Shane Smith

Tosses Five Shutout Frames
Roman Anthony

With Home Run No. 5 On Thursday
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Andrés Muñoz

Andres Munoz Secures Ninth Save
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall

Matthew Golden Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
NFL

Texans Trade The 25th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Giants
Jakob Marsee

Up To 18 Steals At Triple-A

Omarion Hampton Taken No. 22 Overall By Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Selects Derrick Harmon At No. 21 Overall
Denver Broncos

Broncos Build Secondary By Selecting Jahdae Barron At No. 20

Buccaneers Add Emeka Egbuka At No. 19
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Select Grey Zabel At No. 18
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Take Shemar Stewart 17th Overall
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Select Jalon Walker At 15th Overall
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Select Walter Nolen At No. 16 In The NFL Draft

Tyler Warren Heads To Colts At No. 14
Jeff McNeil

Activated From Injured List
Brett Baty

Optioned To Minors
Zack Gelof

To Begin Rehab Assignment Next Week
Ryan Walker

Remains Giants Closer
Kumar Rocker

Heads To Injured List
Brent Rooker

Resting For First Time This Season
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Bryan Woo

Picks Up Third Win, Strikes Out Eight On Thursday
Cade Cavalli

Moving Rehab Assignment To Double-A
Paul DeJong

Having Surgery On His Nose
Royce Lewis

Starting His Rehab Assignment On Friday
Tyler O'Neill

Out On Thursday With Sore Neck
Cole Ragans

Pulled Early On Thursday With Groin Tightness
Jackson Holliday

Retreats To Bench Against Southpaw
Jake Mangum

Rays Place Jake Mangum On 10-Day Injured List With Groin Strain
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Gabriel Landeskog

Delivers Six Hits In First Game Since 2022
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF