Expert NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel (5/4/24)

Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers! We have an odd case of the Western Conference Semifinals tipping off while the Magic-Cavaliers first-round matchup has yet to wrap up, but I'm not complaining. The Wolves-Nuggets will start their dual in Denver tonight, and it's a fascinating series as executive Tim Connelly essentially put together both teams. As such, the teams are evenly matched and play a similar team-focused, hard-nosed style of play. It's the only game on the slate, so we must approach building our lineups differently if we want to get one (or both) of stars Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards in the mix. The Nuggets are favored by five points in a game with a 208.5-point implied total, which means we could have a defensive slugfest on our hands. Let's get to it.

The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always essential to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!

This article will provide my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/4/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our excellent NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 PM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Today's NBA DFS Core Plays

Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.

Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards are the top two plays on the slate - that shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has followed the NBA this season. Jokic is the best player on the planet and will likely receive his third MVP this season, while Edwards has continued to ascend into stardom with a fantastic start to the playoffs and the Wolves sweeping the Suns in the first round. While Jokic should be your focus at Captain/MVP due to his raw points upside, we can get different on this slate in many ways.

Jokic scored 72.75 DK points the last time these teams met, but it had been a slog before that against Chris Finch and the vaunted Timberwolves defense. He finished with 57.5, 59.5, and 41.5 DK points in the three previous meetings. Those are solid numbers, but they won't get the job done tonight at his lofty price tag. The Wolves will have a plan for slowing him down, and I want to be ahead of the field and get a little creative with my lineups. Anthony Edwards at Captain/MVP is one way to do so. He averaged 56 DK points per game over the four games against the Suns and 56 DK points against the Nuggets in mid-March. Getting to him allows you to avoid playing the Reggie Jackson's and Christian Braun's of the world, which is a net positive.

I won't be getting to very much Jamal Murray on this slate. He's questionable with a calf injury, but he will play tonight. I don't love his upside against this Wolves defense, though. The Wolves smothered everything around the perimeter against the Suns, and when guards tried to go inside, they were greeted by a mix of Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert. If I get to anyone in this pool as a wild card option at Captain/MVP, it'll be Rudy Gobert. Gobert has had some solid games against the Nuggets this season, and his size will undoubtedly be needed against Jokic and company tonight.

Top Core Plays:

1. Nikola Jokic ($13,800 DK; $20,700 DK CPT; $17,500 FD)
2. Anthony Edwards ($11,400 DK; $17,100 DK CPT; $15,000 FD)
3. Rudy Gobert ($9,000 DK; $13,500 DK CPT; $6,400 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Value Plays

Using the same premium NBA projections, let's see what players are popping as the best values tonight.

We'll want to mix in Gobert, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr., as they are all critical rotational pieces that will get a lot of playing time. Gobert is my favorite of the trio, but you can make a case for Porter Jr. or Gordon at cheaper salaries. We will focus on this slate's "real" value options, and there aren't any that I like more than my man, Jaden McDaniels.

McDaniels had an up-and-down first round from a DFS perspective, scoring 19.5, 42, 13.5, and 25.75 DK points from Game 1 to Game 4. His elite defensive presence will always be needed, but I think this matchup is good for him to do some damage on the offensive side. Aaron Gordon and MPJ will likely be primary defenders, and his game will force them to guard the perimeter and protect against his drives to the basket. The Nuggets ranked well defensively all year, but if there's one weak spot, it's defending the PF position. Denver allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the last 15 games of the regular season.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker feels like a better play than his hyphen-mate, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. NAW is cheaper and projected to play just a few fewer minutes, so I'm gravitating toward using him as he's a better FPTS/min producer. Mike Conley had a great first round and is always an appealing, consistent mid-range option we can entertain. For my money, Minnesota legend Naz Reid is the biggest wild card on the slate. His salary has slid to $5,000, a far cry from where he was before Karl-Anthony Towns came back into the fold. He didn't do much in the first round, but he's the type of player who can get hot and put up 40 DK points before you can even blink. He's the 6th Man of the Year for a reason, and I'll be taking some shots on him tonight.

Top Value Plays:

1. Aaron Gordon ($7,800 DK; $10,500 FD)
2. Michael Porter Jr. vs. LAL ($8,200 DK; $11,000 FD)
3. Jaden McDaniels ($5,800 DK; $9,000 FD)
4. Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,600 DK; $8,000 FD)
5. Mike Conley ($7,000 DK; $10,000 FD)
6. Naz Reid ($5,000 DK; $8,500 FD)

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Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids

1. Jamal Murray is not in my plans for tonight. He's still battling a calf injury, and now he will be guarded by some mix of McDaniels, Alexander-Walker, and Edwards, with Gobert and Towns lurking down low. He will have to shoot the lights out to hit value tonight, and I try not to build my lineups with that dependency.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns ramped up his production as the first round progressed, but I'm still not interested in getting him in lineups tonight. He's a little too scoring-dependent and expensive for my tastes on this slate, especially with how I want to get to Jokic, Edwards, and Gobert.

My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today

Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.

• My favorite overall play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite CASH play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite GPP play(s): Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels
• My favorite value play(s): Jaden McDaniels

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