Expert NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel (4/6/24)

It's time for another weekend slate in the NBA, RotoBallers! We're winding down the days until the regular season ends, and things are getting ugly in the annual "Silly Season." The Grizzlies scrubs helped me take down the $5 single-entry contest on DraftKings last night (Shoutout Kyrie Irving for not tanking my chances), and we get to deploy them again tonight. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are taking on the Hawks in the top game environment of the night, and since it's a game the Nuggets want to win for playoff seeding, we should see Jokic and company get a full workload in this one.

The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always essential to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!

This article will provide my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/6/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our excellent NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 PM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.

I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.

Today's NBA DFS K-Grades

Today's NBA DFS Core Plays

Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.

This is going to be a weird, challenging slate. Apart from Jokic, nothing at the top looks great, but there's a chance we see usage and production open up with players getting ruled out. Any (or all) of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, or Tobias Harris could sit, which would have enormous ramifications for the remaining 76ers. Right now, it's Jokic and some high-upside Nets against the hapless Pistons, but be sure to stay tuned for news and adjust accordingly.

Top Core Plays:

1. Nikola Jokic vs. ATL - C ($12,100 DK; $12,500 FD)
2. Cam Thomas vs. DET - PG/SG ($7,800 DK; $8,000 FD)
3. Dennis Schroder vs. DET - PG ($6,500 DK; $6,600 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Value Plays

Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.

This is where things get interesting. We've seen prices rise on what's left of the Memphis Grizzlies, but their salaries still aren't nearly high enough for the amount of minutes they'll have to play. They have nine players available, and the end-of-the-bench guys Maozinha Pereira and Zavier Simpson saw at least 30 minutes last night. This could go in many different directions, but I'm highly interested in getting to a mix of these G-Leaguers to make Jokic work in lineups.

The Nets are my top team to target for mid-range value as they face the exploitable Pistons on their home court. Detroit has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game this season and plays at the ninth-fastest pace in the NBA, so there's much to like about Brooklyn's prospects tonight. They're most forgiving to the PG and C positions - I will prioritize Dennis Schroder, Cam Thomas, and Nic Claxton.

Top Value Plays:

1. Jordan Goodwin vs. PHI - PG ($5,100 DK; $5,900 FD)
2. GG Jackson vs. PHI - SF/PF ($6,300 DK; $5,800 FD)
3. Trey Jemison vs. PHI - C ($4,000 DK; $3,900 FD)
4. Dennis Schroder vs. DET - PG ($6,500 DK; $6,600 FD)
5. Nic Claxton vs. DET - C ($6,900 DK; $7,500 FD) Prefer on DraftKings

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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard

This position is about as easy it gets for me on this slate. There are three players I'm highly interested in, and then there's everyone else. Goodwin will continue to run the point for the short-handed Grizzlies, and he has been very productive with games of 32.5, 39.5, and 40.75 DK points over his last four contests. Schroder isn't someone I love getting to on standard slates, but this is a three-gamer and we don't have a lot of options. He should play around 30 minutes against one of the worst defenses in the league, so there's plenty of appeal here. Lastly, Cam Thomas is the upside play in the same matchup as Shroder. Thomas has produced games of 44.5, 48, and 55 DK points over his most recent five-game stretch.

Top PG Options:

1. Jordan Goodwin vs. PHI ($5,100 DK; $5,900 FD)
2. Dennis Schroder vs. DET ($6,500 DK; $6,600 FD)
3. Cam Thomas vs. DET ($7,800 DK; $8,000 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard

Contrary to the PG position, the SG position is a lot tougher to figure out. I'm not getting to Dejounte Murray with Jokic on the board, so we'll have to find some mid-range plays to live with here. Thomas will be my priority, but you can feel free to take shots on Mikal Bridges and Jaden Ivey, as they are both at reasonable price points when considering their expected production. Most of my exposure will be to Thomas, though.

Top SG Options:

1. Cam Thomas vs. DET ($7,800 DK; $8,000 FD)
2. Mikal Bridges vs. DET ($7,100 DK; $7,400 FD)
3. Jaden Ivey vs. BKN ($6,500 DK; $6,400 FD)
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. ATL ($4,600 DK) DraftKings Only

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward

Small forward is an ugly position tonight. I'll likely get to some mid-range and low-end value options, such as Dorian Finney-Smith, GG Jackson, and Jake LaRavia. DFS has the lowest ceiling of this trio, but he will probably play the most, which has value against the Pistons. The Grizzlies will be the focus here, but if you want to get different, Bridges and Porter Jr. look solid as higher mid-range options.

Top SF Options:

1. GG Jackson vs. PHI ($6,300 DK; $5,800 FD)
2. Mikal Bridges vs. DET ($7,100 DK; $7,400 FD)
3. Michael Porter Jr. vs. ATL ($6,800 DK; $6,700 FD)
4. Jake LaRavia vs. PHI ($5,000 DK; $5,000 FD)
5. Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,400 DK; $4,500 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward

Power forward is another position where I don't love what we have available to us. Jalen Johnson pops in the optimizer as the best value on the board, and I'm inclined to agree as he has resumed his #2 role beside Murray with Trae Young off the floor. The exciting second-year pro put up a monster 76 DK point game against the Pistons two games ago, but it's unrealistic to expect anything close to that against the stout Nuggets defense.

Most of the top SF options also qualify at PF, so we'll look to mix and match them in both spots tonight. If you're looking for a few potentially low-owned options, take shots on Lamar Stevens, Chimezie Metu, and Tosan Evboumwan.

Top PF Options:

1. Jalen Johnson vs. DEN ($7,600 DK; $7,500 FD)
2. GG Jackson vs. PHI ($6,300 DK; $5,800 FD)
3. Jake LaRavia vs. PHI ($5,000 DK; $5,000 FD)
4. Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,400 DK; $4,500 FD)
5. Michael Porter Jr. vs. ATL ($6,800 DK; $6,700 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center

There's an obvious answer at the center position tonight, and he's one I suspect will be very popular. Nikola Jokic will go up against the Hawks in a game Denver needs to win, which means we should see a full allotment of minutes for the MVP favorite. Jokic has been rolling lately, exceeding 75 DK points in his last three contests. The Hawks have been better at defending bigs this season, but no one in the NBA can stop the freight train that is Jokic.

Nic Claxton and Trey Jemison are the only other centers I'd like in my lineups. Claxton is cheap enough to fit most lineup builds and has decent upside against a Pistons team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to centers this season. Jemison went off for 42.25 DK points last night, and he should play all the minutes he can handle against Embiid and company tonight.

1. Nikola Jokic vs. ATL ($12,100 DK; $12,500 FD)
2. Nic Claxton vs. DET ($6,900 DK; $7,500 FD)
3. Trey Jemison vs. PHI ($4,000 DK; $3,900 FD)

Today's Top NBA DFS Game Environments

1. Atlanta @ Denver (221.5 implied total)

Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids

1. I'm not a fan of getting to Joel Embiid tonight. He's priced like he's in mid-season form, but he has made just two starts since missing most of the season with a left knee issue. He didn't top 45 DK points in either outing, so I'm out on the big man until he proves he's entirely back into the swing of things.
2. The Sixers, as a whole, aren't very interesting with Embiid back, either. Everyone is too expensive if they're fully healthy tonight, and the matchup and game environment are terrible as the Grizzlies continue to trot out a sub-NBA-level lineup.
3. Clint Capela. Capela has had a few massive games recently, but they came against inferior teams that lack rebounding. The Nuggets don't have that problem. He also is only eligible at the center position, and I love Jokic too much to get away from him in this spot.

My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today

Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.

• My favorite overall play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite CASH play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite GPP play(s): Jordan Goodwin / Cam Thomas
• My favorite value play(s): Jordan Goodwin (TBD - depending on the Memphis news)

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