Expert NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel (4/20/24)

Happy holidays, and welcome to the start of the NBA Playoffs, everyone! The Play-In Tournament is fine and dandy, but nothing matches the intensity of NBA Playoff basketball (well, actually...maybe the NHL Playoffs). We have a fun slate on tap today, tipping off with the Magic-Cavaliers and ending with a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals in the Lakers-Nuggets affair. The Suns-Wolves series should be a lot of fun, and we'll see if the Tom Thibodeau-coached Knicks still have any gas left in the tank as they match up with the Sixers.

The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always essential to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!

This article will provide my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/20/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our excellent NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 PM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.

I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.

Today's NBA DFS K-Grades

Today's NBA DFS Core Plays

Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.

No one on the entire slate comes remotely close to matching the ceiling that Nikola Jokic brings to the table, so we'll start there. The likely MVP of the 2024 season, Jokic has dominated the Lakers, averaging 63.5 DK points per game over three outings. That's 2.5 DK points higher than his season average, which makes sense as the Lakers ranked middle-of-the-pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to centers. The game projects as the top game environment on the slate, so let's get to the best player in the league in said game.

LeBron James is rated as the top player in the optimizer, edging out Jamal Murray and Anthony Davis with just a hair. I'd love to get to him as he is my second favorite high-priced option on the slate, but we can't fit him and Jokic in lineups without additional value opening up. The same goes for Anthony Davis. We can get to the other Nuggets, as they're priced in the mid-tier and typically correlate well with Jokic.

Top Core Plays:

1. Nikola Jokic vs. LAL - C ($11,600 DK; $12,100 FD)
2. LeBron James vs. DEN - SF/PF ($9,400 DK; $10,600 FD)
3. Jamal Murray vs. LAL - PG ($7,600 DK; $8,600 FD)
4. Jalen Brunson vs. ORL - PG ($9,200 DK; $10,000 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Value Plays

Using the same premium NBA projections, let's see what players are popping as the best values tonight.

There's not much to love as actual "value" plays on this slate, so fitting Jokic with another stud in lineups is challenging. We have to go with mid-range options to make this work, and we have plenty to pick from. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. look like solid plays, but they're not priced low enough to be considered "value" options. Jonathan Isaac is a gamble I love taking today as he's very cheap, has a path to high-20s minutes, and can easily exceed 5x value due to his stat-stuffing ways. OG Anunoby is underpriced relative to his projected minutes and production. He hasn't shown much of a ceiling lately, but we know he'll get the minutes. He's less risky than other value options since he's not a scoring-dependent player.

Grayson Allen should be locked into at least 30 minutes and has the type of game that can shine against the Wolves if they prioritize guarding Durant, Booker, and Beal. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the most unexciting player on any given slate he's a part of, but he's a necessary piece today at his pricing. The Lakers allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to SGs this season, and he should be able to provide value as long as he's hitting his shots. Lastly, Mike Conley has stepped up with some big games down the stretch in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT is back in action, but I still like Conley in this spot, as the Wolves need him as a facilitator and a scorer.

Top Value Plays:

1. Jonathan Isaac vs. CLE - PF/C ($4,000 DK; $5,100 FD)
2. OG Anunoby vs. PHI - SF/PF ($5,000 DK; $5,700 FD)
3. Grayson Allen vs. MIN - SG/SF ($5,300 DK; $5,800 FD)
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. LAL - SG ($4,000 DK; $5,000 FD)
5. Mike Conley - PG ($5,400 DK; $6,000 FD)

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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard

Jalen Brunson could get overlooked on this slate, which might be a significant mistake. The Knicks star point guard turned on the jets late in the season with Julius Randle out for the year, producing 60+ DK point games regularly while hitting 79 DK points in a pace-up spot against the Spurs on 3/29. The Sixers defend the position well, but we know Thibs will have Brunson out there for as many minutes as he can handle.

Jamal Murray is another top target for the position. He's a little expensive on FanDuel but affordable on DraftKings and correlates well with Jokic. The matchup is also elite, as the Lakers allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to point guards during the regular season, while the game environment is the best on the slate. Jalen Suggs is another piece I'd like to sprinkle in at the position. He's far too cheap on DraftKings for someone projecting to play 30 minutes, and while the Cavs' defense is excellent, I still love his chances of hitting value in this spot.

Top PG Options:

1. Jalen Brunson vs. PHI ($10,000 DK; $9,200 FD)
2. Jamal Murray vs. LAL ($7,600 DK; $8,600 FD)
3. Mike Conley vs. PHX ($5,400 DK; $6,000 FD)
4. Jalen Suggs vs. CLE ($4,700 DK) DraftKings Only

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard

We can get a little weird at the shooting guard position. Anthony Edwards and Donovan Mitchell are the highlights here, and I love them as studs to get to today in a vacuum. However, getting to them with Jokic is nearly impossible, so they'll only be featured in my non-Jokic lineups. Anunoby and Allen have already been covered in the "Values" section, but I'll reiterate that they both look like great plays at their mid-range pricing. Donte DiVincenzo hasn't been covered yet, but that analysis is straightforward. He will play for nearly 40 minutes and averaging just under 0.9 FPTS/min, so he projects as one of the top values on the slate.

Top SG Options:

1. OG Anunoby vs. PHI ($5,000 DK; $5,700 FD)
2. Anthony Edwards vs. PHX ($9,000 DK; $9,300 FD)
3. Grayson Allen vs. MIN ($5,300 DK; $5,800 FD)
4. Donovan Mitchell vs. ORL ($8,500 DK; $9,900 FD) DraftKings Only
5. Donte DiVincenzo vs. PHI ($6,700 DK; $7,100 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward

There are many ways we can go at small forward. LeBron James rates out the best, but we have the same issue with Edwards and Mitchell. Unless we're fading Jokic, it will be tough to fit LeBron into lineups today. Anunoby, Hart, Edwards, and Allen have already been covered, so I'll highlight others I like at SF. Franz Wagner is priced reasonably, and while he doesn't have the most appealing ceiling in his bag, he is good for 30-40+ DK points and is locked into starter-level minutes for the Magic.

Jaden McDaniels is the final piece I'll be mixing in at the position. He's one of the only viable options priced under $4,000 on DraftKings today, and while his production is volatile, he can occasionally flash for a 25-point game. He only needs 19.5 DK points to hit 5x value today, and I like his chances of going over that mark as long as he plays his typical 30-minute role.

Top SF Options:

1. LeBron James vs. DEN ($9,400 DK; $10,600 FD)
2. OG Anunoby vs. PHI ($5,000 DK; $5,700 FD)
3. Josh Hart vs. PHI ($6,800 DK; $7,500 FD)
4. Anthony Edwards vs. PHX ($9,000 DK; $9,300 FD)
5. Grayson Allen vs. MIN ($5,300 DK; $5,800 FD)
6. Franz Wagner vs. CLE ($6,300 DK) DraftKings Only

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward

Aside from Paolo Banchero, all these players have been covered in previous sections. Banchero has taken a major step forward this season, taking charge of this young Magic team and leading them to the fifth seed in the East in just his second NBA season. This isn't a game I love to target as it ranks last in my K-Grade model, but Banchero is the type of player who can pop for 50+ DK points despite a terrible game environment.

Top PF Options:

1. LeBron James vs. DEN ($9,400 DK; $10,600 FD)
2. OG Anunoby vs. PHI ($5,000 DK; $5,700 FD)
3. Jonathan Isaac vs. CLE ($4,000 DK; $5,100 FD)
4. Paolo Banchero vs. CLE ($8,300 DK; $8,900 FD)
5. Anthony Davis vs. DEN ($9,300 DK; $11,200 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
6. Josh Hart vs. PHI ($6,800 DK; $7,500 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center

It's Nikola Jokic, and then everyone else for me on this slate. If the soon-to-be three-time MVP is one of the least popular players on the slate, which is how he's projecting right now, I'll force him into most of my lineups. The ceiling he brings can't be ignored, and it's important to note that raw points matter even more on smaller slates.

Isaiah Hartenstein and Rudy Gobert look like great values at their respective salaries, and I'll be mixing them in on DraftKings, where we can play two centers. Hartenstein should play close to 30 minutes against Embiid and the Sixers, and he's in great form as he's averaging 36.3 DK points per game over his last four outings. Gobert is also playing well lately, posting games of 48.5, 56.5, and 61.75 DK points over his previous five contests. However, it's much more likely that I'll be stacking up the too-cheap Isaac with Jokic with the way I'm building out my roster constructions.

1. Nikola Jokic vs. LAL ($11,600 DK; $12,100 FD)
2. Jonathan Isaac vs. CLE ($4,000 DK; $5,100 FD)
3. Anthony Davis vs. DEN ($9,300 DK; $11,200 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
4. Isaiah Hartenstein vs. PHI ($5,100 DK; $7,500 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
5. Rudy Gobert vs. PHX ($7,200 DK; $8,200 FD)

Today's Top NBA DFS Game Environments

1. Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (224.5 implied total)

Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids

1. I'm not a fan of getting to Joel Embiid on this slate. He's still clearly battling injury issues on the court, and while his play hasn't suffered, he doesn't have the same path to a ceiling game that guys like Jokic, LeBron, and AD have today. The Knicks are also elite at defending centers, as they allowed the second-least fantasy points per game to the position during the regular season.
2. The high-priced Suns in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. The Suns have had the Wolves number this season as they dominated all three matchups, but the playoffs are a different beast. We (hopefully) won't see the same level of ticky-tack calls and flops, which means the Wolves should be able to flex the defensive muscles they've shown all season. They're also too expensive to like on a slate with Jokic, LeBron, AD, and Brunson.

My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today

Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.

• My favorite overall play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite CASH play: OG Anunoby
• My favorite GPP play(s): Jonathan Isaac / Anthony Edwards
• My favorite value play(s): Jonathan Isaac / Jalen Suggs / OG Anunoby

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