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Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers. We're kicking off the first Saturday in February with a five-game slate, highlighted by incredible game environments in the Bucks-Mavericks and Warriors-Hawks matchups. Those showdowns both feature implied totals of at least 244 points and teams that rank in the top 12 in pace, so it's a near-lock that we'll see optimal plays come out of those games. We don't have a ton of value as we approach mid-day, but that always seems to get flipped on its head as the day progresses (especially on weekends).
The key to being successful in NBA DFS comes down to making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always really important to have a game plan and the best players and spots circled first before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and also gain access to our RotoBaller Premium Discord where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate up until lineups lock!
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 2/3/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our awesome NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:30 PM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.
I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace, and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first take a look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
Kyrie Irving remaining out of the lineup is a critical piece of news for this slate, as that means Luka Doncic will return to hogging all the usage in the world after missing Wednesday's game against the Timberwolves. The Mavericks-Bucks game graded out as the top matchup to target in my K-Grade model, and I'm inclined to agree. The high implied total and fast projected pace is great, but the fact that these teams allow the 11th and 12th most fantasy points per game over their last 15 games has me excited to target Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Warriors-Hawks game is another one to heavily target for many of the same reasons - both teams allow even more fantasy points per game than the Mavericks and Bucks do, with the Hawks allowing the second-most over their last 15 games. Trae Young is in great form and I'll never talk anyone off of playing Stephen Curry, but I'm always going to do whatever I can to get to Doncic whenever he's playing. Unless more value opens up, we can't get to both Doncic and one of Young or Curry.
The Kings-Bulls, Jazz-Spurs, and Lakers-Knicks matchups all feature one or two players we'll want exposure to in this upper range. Domantas Sabonis has a smash matchup against the Bulls, but he's too expensive for my tastes with Doncic on the board. Donovan Mitchell is coming off a subpar DFS output (40 DK points) in his last game, but he has 70+ DK point upside in a matchup against the most vulnerable backcourt in the NBA. Jalen Brunson, Victor Wembanyama, and Nikola Vucevic are the other higher-salaried players I'd look to get exposure to, as they're all in advantageous matchups and have solid price tags. Anthony Davis and LeBron James are both questionable after missing their last game, so that's something we'll have to keep a close eye on. If one or both are out, things are going to open up in a major way.
Top Core Plays:
- Luka Doncic, DAL vs. MIL – PG ($11,500 DK; $12,600 FD)
- Donovan Mitchell, CLE vs. SAS – PG/SG ($9,700 DK; $10,500 FD)
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. CLE – PF/C ($9,400 DK; $10,200 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
Once again, Donte DiVincenzo is popping as the top value on the board. That's three consecutive Knicks slates where the former Villanova guard has been a consensus "best value" play, which is pretty incredible to think about. He's not $5,300 anymore, but he's still producing at a high enough rate (1.09 FPTS/min) and holds the second-highest usage on the team (24%) with the projected lineup tonight. OG Anunoby remaining out would be the best-case scenario for DiVincenzo's potential on this slate.
We don't have much injury news opening up cheap players for extra minutes, so we have to work with what we have here. The Mavericks gave Richaun Holmes the start against the Timberwolves with Derek Lively II out, and he responded with an emphatic 33.5 DK points over 30 minutes. He likely won't see that many minutes again tonight, but he's still among the top value options as long as he gets the start.
Jonathan Kuminga is my favorite value play on the board tonight if we can consider $6,700 "value." He's in the starting lineup now and playing upwards of 40 minutes lately, and that has translated to DFS success as he has at least 43 DK points in four of his last five outings. It's an incredible game environment, so get to as much Kuminga as you feel comfortable with.
They aren't shown here, but if AD or LBJ don't play that opens up value everywhere. Austin Reaves, D'Angelo Russell, Taurean Prince, Christian Wood, Rui Hachimura, and Jaxson Hayes would all be in consideration, with my favorites being Reaves, Prince, and Rui.
Top Value Plays:
- Jonathan Kuminga, GSW vs. ATL - SF/PF ($6,700 DK; $7,400 FD)
- Donte DiVincenzo, NYK vs. LAL - SG/SF ($7,000 DK; $7,500 FD)
- Richaun Holmes, DAL vs. MIL - C ($6,800 DK; $7,200 FD)
- Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK vs. LAL - C ($6,300 DK; $7,700 FD)
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
It's Luka Doncic, all day and all night. The superstar has two 80 DK point games and a mind-blowing 101.5 DK point game...over his last five games. He finished with "only" 75.5 and 63 DK points in the other two contests. Get him in your lineups and move on. The best value PG is Alex Caruso, but he doesn't have the highest ceiling and the Kings have defended the position well recently. Ayo Dosunmu, Tre Jones, and Malik Monk should all be rotated in your player pool as they're cheap and have some upside.
Top PG Options:
- Luka Doncic vs. MIL ($11,700 DK; $12,600 FD)
- Donovan Mitchell @ SAS ($9,700 DK; $10,500 FD)
- Trae Young vs. GSW ($9,500 DK; $10,000 FD)
- Alex Caruso vs. SAC ($5,600 DK; $5,800 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
As detailed in the "Core Plays" section, Donovan Mitchell is my favorite spend-up at the position. It's too good of a spot and too cheap of a DraftKings price to pass up.
DiVincenzo is once again one of the best plays on the slate as he'll continue to take on extra usage in the absence of big man Julius Randle. Klay Thompson and Khris Middleton are intriguing plays in the mid-range as they both have elevated ceilings given their game environments, but I'm not finding myself getting to the mid-range since I'm prioritizing Doncic. Caruso, Dosunmu, and Monk can all be rotated in this position as well.
Top SG Options:
- Donovan Mitchell @ SAS ($9,700 DK; $10,500 FD)
- Klay Thompson @ ATL ($5,900 DK; $6,600 FD) prefer on DraftKings
- Alex Caruso vs. SAC ($5,600 DK; $5,800 FD)
- Ayo Dosunmu vs. SAC ($5,200 DK; $6,300 FD) prefer on DraftKings
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
DiVincenzo is eligible at SF as well, but we'll focus on how good a play Kuminga is tonight. He's starting to get expensive, but he has earned it as he playing a ton of minutes and putting up solid stat lines while doing so. He's not quite a high-usage player, but he ranks just behind Thompson with a 23% usage rate with Chris Paul and Dario Saric off the floor this season. The game environment can't get any better against the Hawks, who notably allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing SFs this season.
DeMar DeRozan, Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are all solid options in the mid-range, but as stated before, they'll be tough to get to if we want Doncic in our lineups. Hopefully we get some value opening up as the day rolls along.
Top SF Options:
- Jonathan Kuminga @ ATL ($6,700 DK; $7,400 FD)
- Klay Thompson @ ATL ($5,900 DK; $6,600 FD) prefer on DraftKings
- DeMar DeRozan vs. SAC ($7,500 DK; $8,000 FD)
- Josh Green vs. MIL ($4,500 DK; $5,100 FD) prefer on DraftKings
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
This is an incredibly tough position with the way things stand. Aside from Kuminga, we don't have any real value popping at PF tonight. Jarrett Allen projects as the top value on the board, but he's questionable to play after tweaking his ankle on Thursday. Draymond Green is never anyone's favorite selection, but he's going to play around 30 minutes in the top game environment on the slate. It's also a bonus that he relies on hustle stats for his DFS scoring because he can provide value even when his shots aren't falling.
On the other side of the ball, Jalen Johnson is the other PF who's interesting tonight. He's cheap enough to fit him into stars-and-scrubs builds, and while he doesn't possess much of a ceiling, he's consistently scoring 35-45 DK points lately. Wembanyama is among my favorite plays tonight, which was detailed above. If Jarrett Allen is out, Wemby becomes an even higher priority as the Cavs wouldn't have much frontcourt defense left aside from Evan Mobley.
Top PF Options:
- Victor Wembanyama vs. CLE ($9,400 DK; $10,200 FD)
- Jonathan Kuminga @ ATL ($6,700 DK; $7,400 FD)
- Draymond Green @ ATL ($6,400 DK; $7,000 FD)
- Jalen Johnson vs. GSW ($7,200 DK; $8,300 FD) prefer on DraftKings
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
The top spend-up option is Wemby, but I also like Nikola Vucevic if you can get to him and make the rest of your lineup work. Richaun Holmes was detailed in the "Value Plays" section, but I also really like Isaiah Hartenstein at his DraftKings pricing. His salary hasn't caught up to his role after missing about a week, and he has put up 47.75 and 39 DK points over his last two outings. The Lakers rank well against Cs, but they could be without one of their premier defenders in Anthony Davis tonight.
Top C Options:
- Nikola Vucevic vs. SAC ($7,600 DK; $8,100 FD)
- Richaun Holmes vs. MIL ($3,800 DK; $4,500 FD)
- Isaiah Hartenstein vs. LAL ($6,300 DK; $7,700 FD) prefer on DraftKings
- Domantas Sabonis @ CHI ($10,300 DK; $10,400 FD)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks
- Milwaukee @ Dallas (246 total)
- Golden State @ Atlanta (244.5 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- I'm not getting any Giannis on this slate. Doncic has been significantly outperforming him recently, both on a median production and ceiling basis.
- LeBron James. I'll only get to him if he's ruled in and Anthony Davis is ruled out.
- Non-Wemby Spurs. While I love Wembanyama for his potential ceiling, I don't have any other Spurs even remotely on my radar for this slate.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play on the slate: Luka Doncic
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Donte DiVincenzo
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Donovan Mitchell / Victor Wembanyama
- My favorite value play: Jonathan Kuminga
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