RotoBaller's Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft

Courtesy of our good friends over at Fleaflicker, we hosted a RotoBaller fantasy football mock draft with a bunch of the RotoBaller football experts.  Our own Frankie Soler (@Frankie_Soler) was kind enough to write up a thorough post-draft analysis.  As you're preparing for your own fantasy football drafts, developing your draft strategy, identifying ADP sleepers, quality rookies, breakouts and busts, for PPR and Non-PPR leagues, the RotoBaller mock draft can serve as a good guide and help you kill it at the draft table. 

RotoBaller's Fantasy Football Mock Draft

You can study all the stats you want and read up on as many sleepers as you can handle but when it comes down to it the most effective way to strategize in fantasy is to mock draft. The more you familiarize yourself with every possible scenario that could arise in a draft, the more prepared you’ll be. In short, mock drafting ensures nothing will surprise you when it comes time for the real thing. The RotoBaller authors and I conducted a 12 team, 3 Wide Receiver, two flex, PPR mock draft that had it’s swerves but should give you an idea what to expect if you happen to play in a similar format.  Here's the draft results and my analysis of rounds 1-5. You can see the entire draft results here as we finish the last round in the next day or two.

Round One

1)   Leib0039 – RB1 Jamaal Charles,  KC

2)   Real Talk Ralph – RB2, LeSean McCoy, PHI

3)   Just Berglund – RB3 Adrian Peterson, MIN

4)   Aaron M – RB4 Matt Forte, CHI

5)   Zach Attack – RB5 Eddie Lacy, GB

6)   Ryan Rufe – WR1 Calvin Johnson, DET

7)   Richie Smith – WR2 Demaryius Thomas, DEN

8)   McCloy24 – WR3 A.J. Green, CIN

9)   Rotoballer Evan – TE1 Jimmy Graham, NO

10) Frankie – WR4 Dez Bryant, DAL

11)  The Real Samuel L’s – QB1 Peyton Manning, DEN

12)  Legion of Doom – RB6 Montee Ball, DEN

The pace was set fairly early in regard to seeing receivers come off the board as Calvin Johnson going at number six resulted in four receivers total going in the first round. That’s not out of the ordinary for a PPR league that starts 3 wide receivers as it’s crucial to secure a top pass catcher as soon as you can. The balance of power automatically shifts from running back to receiver in these kinds of leagues so it was clear that everyone embraced the format of this particular mock.

The most surprising pick of the first round was probably Montee Ball at 12. Many expect him to have a big year within the Peyton Manning offense but seeing him go as just the sixth running back off the board was unexpected. I don’t particularly dislike the pick or anything I just didn't see it coming. Ball will certainly get his fair share of receptions so the PPR boost justifies the pick, especially when you consider the question marks other running backs carry with them.

Round Two

13)  Legion of Doom – WR5 Brandon Marshall, CHI

14)  The Real Samuel L’s – WR6 Julio Jones, ATL

15) Frankie – RB7 Arian Foster, HOU

16) Rotoballer Evan – QB2 Aaron Rodgers, GB

17) McCloy24 – RB8 Marshawn Lynch, SEA

18) Richie Smith – RB9 DeMarco Murray, DAL

19) Ryan Rufe – WR7 Alshon Jeffery, CHI

20) Zach Attack – RB10 Alfred Morris, WAS

21) Aaron M – RB11 Le’Veon Bell, PIT

22) Just Berglund – RB12 Giovani Bernard, CIN

23) Real Talk Ralph – WR8 Jordy Nelson, GB

24) Leib0039 – RB13 Doug Martin, TB

With the top tier receivers off the board, several mock drafters opted for the more traditional RB/RB approach while Ryan Rufe went all on in wide receiver, taking Alshon Jeffery to pair with Megatron. It’s an aggressive move but in a three wide receiver league it’s not the craziest idea. The traditional RB/RB approach in this kind of mock is much more risky in my opinion given that it’s a long wait before you end up filling those three wide receiver slots.

The “best player on my board” strategy could be attributed to RotoBaller Evan from the 9 spot, opting to put more stock into pure talent than format in following up Jimmy Graham with Aaron Rodgers. That’s a gutsy move in a mock with this kind of depth but the path less traveled approach is always a high risk-high reward way to go about fantasy. I wanted a running back quickly given that it would be a while before I picked again so I was happy to grab Foster at 15 overall. The advantage of being at one of the ends of a draft is that you can count players so you can ensure you get at least one of the guys you want at the turnaround. I didn’t want to miss out on Dez Bryant but felt comfortable Foster, Bell, or Lynch would be there when I picked again so I opted to take the WR first. It’s a simple trick to apply in a draft that gives you both flexibility and a strategic advantage.

Round Three

25) Leib0039 – WR9 Randall Cobb, GB

26) Real Talk Ralph – WR10 Pierre Garcon, WAS

27) Just Berglund – QB3 Drew Brees, NO

28) Aaron M – WR11 Andre Johnson, HOU

29) Zach Attack – WR12 Antonio Brown, PIT

30) Ryan Rufe – TE2 Rob Gronkowski, NE

31) Richie Smith – TE3 Julius Thomas, DEN

32) McCloy24 – RB14 Reggie Bush, DET

33) Rotoballer Evan – RB15 C.J. Spiller, BUF

34) Frankie – RB16 Zac Stacy, STL

35) The Real Samuel L’s – RB17 Ryan Mathews, SD

36) Legion of Doom – QB4 Tom Brady, NE

In what was the most surprising round yet, a pair of tight ends went earlier than I expected and Legion of Doom grabbed Tom Brady at the end of the third. I think it’s a little premature to grab a tight end not named Jimmy Graham in the first three rounds, especially when we’re talking about two guys with a history of injuries in Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas. That’s a lot of stock to put into a third round pick. The Brady pick isn’t all that crazy if you consider the next time Legion of Doom picked there was a chance Brady was off the board but I fear Brady's days as a top four QB may be behind him given his lack of true weapons.

My favorite pick in this round was probably Pierre Garcon to Real Talk Ralph at 26 overall. Although it wasn’t the exact receiver I would have chosen, rolling with McCoy as your number one back and following him up with two wide receivers is the way to go, especially since you have to start three. McCoy/Nelson/Garcon is a fantastic trio to build a fantasy team around. I applied my strategy of letting the turnaround dictate what player I would get once again, opting to take my second running back in Zac Stacy and hope a receiver I wanted would be there at my next pick. It paid off for the second time in a row so I was beginning to like my team at this point.

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Round Four

37) Legion of Doom – RB18 Bishop Sankey, TEN

38) The Real Samuel L’s – RB19 Trent Richardson, IND

39) Frankie – WR13 Vincent Jackson, TB

40) Rotoballer Evan – RB20 Andre Ellington, ARI

41) McCloy24 – WR14 Wes Welker, DEN

42) Richie Smith – RB21 Shane Vereen, NE

43) RyanRufe – WR15 Keenan Allen, SD

44) Zach Attack – WR16 Victor Cruz, NYG

45) Aaron M – RB22 Toby Gerhart, JAX

46) Just Berglund –WR17 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

47) Real Talk Ralph – RB23 Chris Johnson, TEN

48) Leib0039 – QB5 Matthew Stafford, DET

Running back panic appeared to set in during round four as a bunch of guys went earlier than anticipated, particularly Bishop Sankey and Trent Richardson. I would have tried to stock up on some of the better receivers still on the board rather than force my way into a second running back just for the sake of having one. The Real Samuel L’s did wait on RB as a whole though so the Trent Richardson pick is fine.

A slew of other RBs in Ellington, Gerhart, Bush, and Vereen being selected means we haven’t cracked 20 receivers taken yet through four rounds. That’s surprising in a mock with this set up but it also means the draft changes at this point. After the first few rounds of a draft, teams start drafting more on need than value so ultimately everything ends up balancing itself out. The strategies were becoming clear now: drafters like myself, mccloy24, and Real Talk Ralph wanted a greater balance between running back and receiver. Other participants like JustBerglund, Aaron, and Zach Attack still viewed the running back position as a one of shallow depth, taking them early and often. Vincent Jackson was the exact receiver I wanted at 39 so grabbing Zac Stacy the turn before worked out perfectly. I’ve always claimed I love being at either end of the draft and this mock was no different.

Round Five

49) Leib0039 – RB24 Ben Tate, CLE

50) Real Talk Ralph – RB25 Ray Rice, BAL

51)  Just Berglung – TE4 Vernon Davis, SF

52) Aaron M – WR18 Michael Crabtree, SF

53) Zach Attack – WR19 DeSean Jackson, WAS

54) Ryan Rufe – RB26 Joique Bell, DET

55) Richie Smith – WR20 Roddy White, ATL

56) McCloy24 – QB6 Nick Foles, PHI

57) Rotoballer Evan – WR21 Percy Harvin

58) Frankie – WR22 Julian Edelman, NE

59) The Real Samuel L’s – RB27 Frank Gore, SF

60) Legion of Doom – WR23 T.Y. Hilton, IND

My favorite two picks in this round were easily Joqiue Bell to Ryan Rufe and Roddy White to Richie Smith. I was planning on grabbing Roddy myself had he been available. I’m expecting a huge bounce back year for the whole Falcons offense and actually have Roddy ranked way ahead of where most rankers have him. As for Joique Bell, I think he’s an underrated part of the Lions offense that will be a huge contributor in PPR formats. The only drawback to that pick is that Joique ends up being Ryan Rufe’s first running back taken so that could potentially be troublesome.

As for the rest of the round, Frank Gore plummeted to the 27^th RB taken which is likely due to both his age and his lack of receptions. Foles being taken before the likes of Cam Newton and Andrew luck raises an eyebrow but isn’t too crazy. It’s a bold move that could pay off given the upside of being in a Chip Kelly offense. Overall this was one of the more solid rounds of the draft as everybody made some fairly wise choices.

 More Mock Draft analysis from rounds 6-15 to come soon...