Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity for Week 4

Welcome to the first edition of Statcast pitchers analysis this season! I covered this series two seasons ago and am very excited to be back at the helm. Statcast provides a ton of interesting and insightful advanced metrics that we can use to predict future fantasy performance. Each week I will select one of these stats, choose two risers and two fallers to analyze, and ultimately determine what those stats could mean for future fantasy output.

Given the small sample size we currently have for pitchers, I will start the series with a slightly more straightforward stat, average exit velocity (EV). EV has become immensely popular for analyzing hitters but can also be used to effectively analyze pitchers. EV is a better stat for hitters than pitchers as hitters have a greater influence on the measure. That being said, EV is related to ERA for pitchers, and pitchers generally don’t want to give up hard contact as it improves the hitter’s chance of getting a hit. EV in combination with several other metrics can provide pretty compelling insights for pitchers. This week I will focus exclusively on starting pitchers.

I will pick two SP in the top percentiles of EV and two in the bottom percentiles, take a look behind the curtain, and predict if their performances to this point have been legit or outliers. I will also try to focus on pitchers who may not be obvious overall fantasy studs or duds to provide the most insight and use to you, the reader. Without further ado, let’s get into another season of Statcast pitchers Studs and Duds!

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Top EV Pitchers

All exit velocity stats current as of Sunday, April 18.

Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds

(2-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 83.3-MPH Avg. EV)

Wade Miley has had a lot of ups and downs in his career, and it looks like 2021 could be another up. Miley has gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 23.1% strikeout rate over his first three starts. Part of his success can be attributed to his low EV; his 83.3 MPH mark is the second-lowest among qualified pitchers. Should we expect to see another strong season from Miley?

It is not all that surprising to see Miley avoiding hard contact; he has never been an overpowering pitcher, so he has had to rely on avoiding damaging contact, rather than avoiding bats. His career average EV is 87.7 MPH, so he is definitely over-achieving in that regard. Further, he has done a great job keeping the ball out of the air, which has helped his cause. His career 8-degree launch angle is solid, but his current -0.9-degree launch angle, coupled with his EV is his best hope for finding success.

The numbers all make sense for Miley to this point, but that still does not give me absolute confidence that he will be a huge success this season. Relying mostly on an 85.4-MPH cutter, an 81.4-MPH changeup, and a 90-MPH four-seamer leaves little room for failure, even if he is executing well overall. I wouldn't be surprised to see some regression in Miley's EV, launch angle, and strikeout rate given his career marks. Of course, he could continue to essentially pitch perfectly and be great, and could still have fantasy value even with a bit of regression. It is still quite early in the season, so larger sample sizes over time will help paint a stronger picture, but I wouldn't rule out attempting to sell high on Miley with his hot start.

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox

(2-1, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 84.7-MPH Avg. EV)

This next pitcher is one who fantasy managers have likely experienced frustration with at times over the course of their careers. Nathan Eovaldi is a pitcher who fantasy managers have always had high hopes for, but injuries and poor performance seem to have kept that from coming to fruition in recent seasons. However, he was able to find success in 2020 and is continuing that into 2021, going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 21.2% strikeout rate over 17 1/3 innings pitched. He also has the lowest EV of his career at 84.7 MPH, giving him the third-lowest mark among qualified pitchers. Let's take a deeper look to see if Eovaldi can sustain his early success.

There are several positive signs under the hood so far for Eovaldi. First, he has exhibited good pitch location on all of his pitches. He has kept his fastball in the top of the zone and has a .182 batting average against. With a 97-MPH fastball, this tactic will work so long as Eovaldi keeps the ball high enough in the zone. He has also kept his breaking pitches in the bottom of the zone, which is key to avoiding damaging contact. Eovaldi has brought back his slider and, while he has allowed a .273 batting average against with the pitch, he has also allowed an 84.8-MPH EV and a -5-degree launch angle, so positive results should follow. Overall, Eovaldi is locating his pitches, which has both allowed soft contact as well as contact on the ground with a career-low 4.5-degree overall launch angle. 

Eovaldi has found success in the early part of this season and has the underlying numbers to support his performance. He has been able to pitch well and limit hard contact with strong control of both his fastball and breaking pitches. His 3.46 SIERA supports his EV and launch angle, so I think he should continue to find success as long as he can continue what he's been doing.

Bottom EV Pitchers

All exit velocity stats current as of Sunday, April 18.

Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins

(1-1, 2.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 94.6-MPH Avg. EV)

Trevor Rogers was a stealthy fantasy sleeper coming into the 2021 season, and he has delivered so far. The 23-year-old has a stellar 2.40 ERA with a 37.1% strikeout rate to start the season. However, Rogers has allowed a 94.6-MPH average EV, making him the third-highest among qualified pitchers. Should fantasy managers be totally on board with Rogers, or should they be wary? 

Rogers' numbers on the surface look great. His expected stats are all above average, his strikeout rate is in the 89th percentile, and his 3.58 SIERA is encouraging. However, things don't look so great when you look further. Not only has he allowed hard contact, but he has allowed contact in the air with a 22.1-degree average launch angle. Hard contact is not necessarily bad if hitters are hitting the ball into the ground, but hard contact in the air is not a winning combination. His actual batted-ball profile leaves room for concern beyond his SIERA.

Further, Rogers does have a 32.3% strikeout rate in his early career, but he has done so essentially with three pitches. He relies heavily on his fastball (65.2% usage) for a starter, followed by a slider (22.4% usage) and changeup (15% usage). A 37.1% strikeout rate relying heavily on a fastball simply does not seem sustainable for a starting pitcher.

Overall, fantasy managers are likely very excited about what they have seen from Rogers to start the season. However, I fear that the underlying numbers could catch up to him as he continues into the season, especially as teams get to see him pitch more often. A batted-ball profile like his is not a recipe for success, and I question whether he can maintain a top-level strikeout rate relying so heavily on his fastball.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros

(1-1, 5.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 93.6-MPH Avg. EV)

Our final pitcher is one who has been a solid back-end fantasy rotation option for the past several seasons, but has gotten off to a bumpy start on paper. Lance McCullers Jr. currently has a 5.27 ERA with a 93.6-MPH average EV and a 62.5% hard-hit rate, both of which are in the bottom 10-percent of baseball. Should fantasy managers start to panic already?

The good news here is that all signs point to no, fantasy managers do not have anything to worry about. First, McCullers Jr.'s first two starts to the season were solid, in which he allowed one run in each start. However, his most recent start against the Tigers (3 2/3 IP, six runs allowed) has significantly skewed his overall numbers. I do not typically dismiss starts simply to make my case stronger, but it is well-known that McCullers Jr. was suffering from side-effects of his COVID-19 vaccine during that start and may miss his next start as well to ensure he is feeling 100% before he pitches next. This does not sound like anything to worry about long-term and does explain why he pitched so poorly after two strong starts.

Turning specifically to his batted-ball profile, McCullers Jr. has gotten hit hard this season, but has done a great job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 1.6-degree average launch angle. Again, pitchers can be successful while allowing hard contact if they keep the ball on the ground, and McCullers Jr., a sinker-ball pitcher, has done a good job keeping the ball out of the air for much of his career. He has struggled a bit with his command (15% walk rate), but has done a nice job of mixing his pitches and has a solid 26.7% strikeout rate to show for it.

Given his first two starts and his recent illness, signs point to McCullers Jr. being just fine, despite the hard contact he has allowed. He has limited damaging contact (with the exception of his third start) and has been able to strike hitters out. McCullers Jr.'s EV has been a dud to this point, but he should not be considered a fantasy dud overall given what we have seen so far.

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