X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Statcast Exit Velocity

Rick Lucks discusses how exit velocity (EV) can be used to predict a fantasy baseball player's future performance in his ongoing series on making sabermetrics more accessible to fantasy managers.

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There is a relationship there, but it is not as clear-cut as you might think.

The hardest batted ball of the 2019 season was struck by Giancarlo Stanton. It was clocked at 120.6 mph, but Stanton only recorded a single for his efforts. The hardest-hit home run was a three-way tie at 118.3 mph: Gary Sanchez, Peter Alonso, and Aristides Aquino. Aaron Judge's best EV of the season was clocked at 118.1 mph and made an out. While higher exit velocity figures support offensive performance, you need to use other tools as well to accurately assess a player's performance.

Let's take a closer look at how the EV readings on Baseball Savant can give you an advantage in your fantasy leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How can I use EV to predict BABIP on ground balls?

The best way to get a feel for how hard a given batter usually hits the ball is to look at his average exit velocity. The league average mark in 2019 was 88.1 mph, but that stat is of little value. The exit velocity on airborne balls (both flies and line drives but not including pop-ups) is all you need when evaluating a player's HR/FB rate, while ground ball exit velocity is the best indicator of a high BABIP on ground balls. The two metrics should seldom intersect, but a lot of analysts ignore context and use overall average exit velocity to evaluate both HR/FB and BABIP.

You really shouldn't do that unless you believe that a grounder has a chance of going over the fence. Hard% is even worse, as it assumes that all batted balls of at least 95 mph are equal and makes no attempt to differentiate ground balls from airborne ones. So how do you figure out what's useful among these sabermetric measures? As always, the answer lies in placing these numbers in their proper context.

Major league batters averaged an EV of 84.8 mph on ground balls in 2019, and every mph above or below that figure is very important. For instance, hitters produced a batting average of just .150 on balls in the 80-82 mph bucket in 2019, while batted balls at 85 mph or above produced a .347 batting average.

As we've previously seen, players who can be shifted should be expected to struggle on grounders regardless of EV, while faster players can punch above their weight. Much like broader BABIP, it is a good idea to compare a player's current BABIP on ground balls to his career mark to account for these factors. As such, average exit velocity on grounders should be seen as one piece of a larger puzzle instead of the end of your BABIP analysis.

 

How can I use EV to predict HR/FB?

In 2019, the average airborne exit velocity in Major League Baseball was 92.7 mph. All other things being equal, a batter with an average airborne EV in the same area would be expected to be near the league-average HR/FB. Unfortunately, nobody of fantasy interest matched the exact MLB average in 2019.

If we increase the threshold to 92.8 mph, we get a bunch of fun names to work with: Gleyber Torres (21.5% HR/FB), Charlie Blackmon (17.7%), Jose Altuve (23.3%), and Jonathan Villar (16.7%). By exit velocity alone, all four of these guys were due for significant regression that could adversely affect their fantasy value. Sure enough, all four of them had down 2020 campaigns.

While airborne EV is an important power metric to look at, other variables can prove more important. Ironically, airborne exit velocity's most important use may be to confirm whether a player besting his career BABIP on fly balls and/or line drives can continue to do so.

 

Conclusion

Hitting the ball hard is obviously a good thing, but limiting your fantasy analysis to just exit velocity is asking for trouble. Variables such as strong pull tendencies and foot speed can trump raw EV in a player's BABIP on ground balls, while home park, launch angle, and Pull% can all support elevated HR/FB figures even if the EV doesn't. Oh, and for the love of the fantasy baseball gods, please don't use Hard% for anything.

If you'd like to learn how to interpret more statistics for a fantasy advantage, please check out our other articles on the topic.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Andrew Heaney4 hours ago

Tosses Six Shutout Innings
Triston Casas5 hours ago

Launches Three-Run Homer
Jordan Lawlar5 hours ago

Records Another Multi-Hit Performance
Pete Crow-Armstrong5 hours ago

Homers, Steals Two Bases
Yanquiel Fernandez5 hours ago

With Another Multi-Homer Game
Reese Olson5 hours ago

Strikes Out Seven In Win
Jake Mangum5 hours ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly5 hours ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle5 hours ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone5 hours ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett5 hours ago

Joining The Titans
Allan Winans6 hours ago

Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday At Triple-A
6 hours ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders6 hours ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL6 hours ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
Marcelo Mayer6 hours ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints6 hours ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb6 hours ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens6 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice6 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
7 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson7 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB7 hours ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin7 hours ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez7 hours ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler8 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones8 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo8 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson8 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson8 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras8 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski9 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis9 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager9 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings9 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson9 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jake Fromm10 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Seattle Seahawks10 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions10 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell10 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski11 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford11 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.11 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum11 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart11 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI11 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha11 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers12 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen12 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg12 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane12 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog12 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos13 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans14 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons14 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys14 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints14 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
14 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.19 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander20 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman20 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam20 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo20 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges20 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA20 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle20 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland20 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić20 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy20 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard20 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale20 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens20 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate20 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard20 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares20 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout21 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen21 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia21 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young21 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov21 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk21 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen21 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli21 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi21 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg21 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane21 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard2 days ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF