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Seattle Mariners first baseman Evan White is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 350
CURRENT ADP: ~375 overall
ANALYSIS: White struggled last year. There's no way you can argue against that when he put up a triple-slash of .176/.252/.346 to go along with a 41.6% strikeout rate. However, his contact wasn't actually the issue. In fact, when you look under the hood, you see that White had a solid 97 mph average exit velocity on balls in the air, a 112.8 mph max exit velocity, and a 95th-percentile Hard Hit%.
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Right away, two major numbers stand as being deviations from the MLB-norm. For one, White's Zone Contact% is exceptionally low, and his Whiff% is tremendously high. Other than that, the rest of his numbers seem to indicate a season more in line with league averages (although I'd love to see him swing at more Meatballs). However, before we get worried about the swing-and-miss in his game, we should consider that White never had a K% above 23% in the minors (minus four games at AAA in 2018). Since he's never been a big strikeout guy, that would suggest that 2020's clear swing-and-miss issues are more of an aberration than the norm we should expect going forward.
So if White settles in to become a 30% K% hitter, which is reasonable given his minor league track record, then we pair that with consistent hard contact and a power-friendly 13.7-degree launch angle, and I don't think it's unreasonable to project a .250-.260 hitter with 30 HR upside who is likely to hit in the middle of a young but potentially intriguing lineup.
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