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Oftentimes, the learning curve for tight ends entering the NFL is extremely high. A common trend among NFL coaches is to draft several tight ends and develop them for a few years as blockers and receivers before letting them have a significant portion of the team's offensive snaps/target share.
For fantasy football, the tight end position has been rather bleak over the past few years. Filled with top-heavy talent and little value following the first few selections, it is difficult to predict which tight end will perform if your name isn't one of the top five or six called on Draft Day.
One tight end who broke out in 2017 was Evan Engram from the New York Giants. Built more like a wide receiver, Engram ended up leading the team in receptions and just missing out on the team lead in receiving yards. Clearly, there is a lot of talent on display with Engram's performance. However, the bulk of his targets came sans leading receiver Odell Beckham or any semblance of a running game. With the return of OBJ and addition of Saquon Barkley, does his fantasy value warrant a selection ahead of this year's incoming group of tight ends?
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Evan Engram - As Good the Second Time Around?
After being taken 23rd overall as the second tight end in the class by the New York Giants, it was assumed that Engram would spend a lot of his rookie season learning the NFL tight end route tree and improving his blocking. However, following injuries to wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, and Sterling Shepard for a significant chunk of time, Engram was thrust into the spotlight and force fed the ball. Engram finished the season with 115 targets, 64 receptions, 722 yards, and six touchdowns, leading the team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. However, Engram's catch rate was a lowly 55.7% and he was playing with aging quarterback Eli Manning and a struggling Giants team.
Let's talk about the supporting cast Engram will be playing around in 2018. Out of the backfield, rookie Saquon Barkley is a truly generational talent who has the ability to turn any game on its head with his dual-threat ability as a runner and receiver. Make no mistake about it, Barkley will command a significant percentage of the team's target share after being selected second overall by the team. In terms of receivers, Engram is once again joined by All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who when healthy is 100% guaranteed to lead the team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. Additionally, the team has third-year pro wide receiver Sterling Shepard on the roster, who led the team in receiving yards despite only playing in 11 games. Shepard was probably the best part of the Giants' offense outside of Engram last year, displaying solid catch-and-run ability out of the slot and playing like one of the best young receivers in the league. In summary, Engram will be playing with an aging quarterback in Eli Manning who will have one of the best supporting casts in the NFL at his disposal to spread the targets around.
In PPR formats, Engram is currently going as a late sixth-round pick and being drafted as the sixth tight end overall. Although he has a ton of upside in what looks to be a rejuvenated offense, there are still a lot of mouths to feed and plenty of quality options that can take away from Engram's production. Expect some regression from the tight end that will end up not justifying his cost as a mid-round pick - he is a much better pick around Rounds 10-12.
2018 Rookie TE Class - Another Engram In Here?
The 2018 rookie tight end class is filled with potential fantasy significance, more so in the long term than the short term. The only first-round pick at the tight end position is 25th overall selection Hayden Hurst. Hurst is a 25-year-old prospect who was selected by the Baltimore Ravens to be the new starting tight end for the team. The Ravens are known to feature their tight ends heavily in the team's passing game, meaning Hurst could have some short-term potential to see the field and produce. However, it seems more likely than not that Hurst will be a mid-to-late round dynasty selection, which is probably a fair spot given the time that it takes for tight ends to develop in this league. His redraft appeal is limited for one obvious reason listed below.
The Ravens also selected Mark Andrews in the third round of the NFL Draft to solidify the team's position after the losses of Dennis Pitta two seasons ago and Benjamin Watson last year. Andrews is a very athletic prospect who could be a game-changer at the position for the team but should still be viewed as nothing more than a late-round flier who, like most tight ends, does not have a clear-cut path to immediate fantasy relevance and whose long-term upside is muddled by the draft capital placed into Hayden Hurst by the team.
An interesting rookie quarterback in an underrated situation is Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki. Selected with an early pick in the second round, Gesicki could become the starter in an Adam Gase-led offense that is known to love its tight ends, but lacking one that has been productive. With the departure of wide receiver Jarvis Landry, plenty of targets are up for grabs and Gesicki could take advantage and generate significant fantasy potential in both the short and long term given his draft cost and the team's lack of options at the position. That said, this still won't be a very good offense and Gesicki will have to prove that he can pickup the playbook as quickly as he can run agility sprints.
Finally, at 49th overall, the Philadelphia Eagles selected Dallas Goedert, a tight end out of South Dakota State. He will definitely be a backup to Zach Ertz for quite some time, but we have seen the Eagles backup tight end have some fantasy significance in the absence of Ertz through injury or even as a stand-alone selection. Nevertheless, it is difficult to place too much trust in a tight end who will not be the team's starter for the foreseeable future. Unless Ertz misses a considerable chunk of time, Goedert has limited fantasy appeal in 2018.
If you are looking for a better bet to produce in 2018 in fantasy football, then it is no question - Evan Engram should be your selection 10 times out of 10. Even in dynasty startup drafts, the lack of certainty around the rookie tight end prospects and Engram's ability as well as proven talent in the league make him a superior selection despite his higher draft cost. However, that being said, there are better tight end values to be had with bigger market shares and a higher touchdown potential than Engram.
More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis
