Evaluating Rookie Performances for Fantasy Baseball - Triston Casas, Miguel Vargas, Masataka Yoshida, Gunnar Henderson

As we move into week 4 of the 2023 MLB season, many players have started slow after showing production during spring training or flashing potential at the end of last season. This piece will discuss potentially adjusting expectations for rookie hitters that are off to rocky starts in 2023. How should we react as fantasy managers? When is it time to let go of your draft-day rookie targets? Let’s focus on four rookies we loved during the draft season who have been disappointing to start the year. 

The step up in pitching talent from Triple-A to the major leagues is drastic and rookies unsurprisingly struggle out of the gate. Please don’t forget to remain patient and remember that exceptional rookies from years past have struggled in April. 

Notably, two standout stars from last year, Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez combined for 0 home runs in April 2022. Witt Jr. hit .216 through 19 games and Rodriguez .206 through 20 games. Julio went on to win American League Rookie of the Year and Witt Jr. finished top five in voting. The four listed obviously do not have the prospect status on the level that Rodriguez and Witt Jr. did, but the process of patience remains the same. Small sample sizes can throw fantasy managers off so now is the time to capitalize off of buy-low opportunities in your leagues. 

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Rookies Require Patience

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

Triston Casas has struggled to the tune of a .143 batting average with 2 home runs and 7 RBI through 16 games. His fantasy profile is built off of great plate discipline where he walked at a 20% clip and struck out 24.2% of the time last season. His strikeout rate has increased to 31.3% in the early going of 2023 as he is chasing pitches out of the zone more often.

Playing time concerns don’t seem to be much of a problem as the Red Sox have Justin Turner and Bobby Dalbec filling in at first base on occasion against left-handed pitchers. Those two players don’t seem to be long-term options like Casas and do not have the capability to hit the ball as hard as Casas can. Casas’s max exit velocity, per Statcast, ranks in the 80th percentile at 110.8 mph; no small feat for a 23-year-old. 

Casas’s struggles have come at a difficult time as Boston has ranked in the top four in runs scored per game early on. It’s okay to move on from Casas in shallow leagues if you believe he won’t be scooped up by another manager as we wait for his bat to come around. 

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson was the runaway favorite to win American League Rookie of the Year coming into the year. Now, the future does not look as bright as fantasy managers are questioning the hitting ability that he flashed at the end of last year. 

Henderson is striking out at a 34.3% clip so far but ranks in the top percentile of the league in walk rate at 22.4%. This is a fantasy profile you have to remain patient with and possibly take advantage of other managers who are worried this downward trend will continue. He has struggled with a .177 batting average, 1 home run, 3 RBI, and 1 stolen base through 15 games in 2023. As we mentioned before, this is a case of a top prospect struggling to adjust to major league pitching but has the pedigree and skill set to turn it around in a hurry. 

Henderson’s average exit velocity, chase rate, and sprint speed all rank in the 80-plus percentile according to Statcast. His early struggles have come from a high whiff rate and low zone swing rate. Look to buy Henderson low or scoop him up from the waiver wire if he was panic-dropped by another manager in shallow leagues. 

Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox

Masataka Yoshida has been limited to 14 games after dealing with a minor hamstring injury but has settled into the cleanup spot in the lineup for most of the year. Yoshida has hit .189 with 1 home run, 8 RBI, and 2 stolen bases in his first opportunity against major league pitching. I fully believe in Yoshida’s hitting approach with amazing plate discipline. He’s only striking out at a 7.9% clip so brighter days are ahead. 

Fantasy managers are still waiting to see the power that Yoshida flashed at the World Baseball Classic that pushed him up draft boards. Yoshida has a negative launch angle and a 64.6% groundball rate on the season. After an adjustment period, fantasy managers will understand why Boston made him their big free agent signing this off-season. 

The Red Sox have no motivation to move away from the 29-year-old NBL star this early in the season. He may be at risk of sliding down the lineup until his bat comes around but the counting stats should continue to rise in a surprisingly potent lineup. This is another buy-low opportunity for fantasy managers and should give hope that better days are ahead. 

Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers

Miguel Vargas is another case of prospect pedigree outweighing concerns over lack of production early on in the season. Vargas has put together a .216 average and 3 RBI in 16 games as the Dodgers' everyday second baseman. Gavin Lux’s pre-season knee injury further cemented Vargas’s role and left the Dodgers needing contributors from their young prospects. 

Vargas has shown his elite plate discipline so far with a 20.6% walk rate and his expected batting average sits at .278. The key for Vargas will be taking advantage of pitching in the zone when given a chance; he ranks in the 94th percentile in chase rate, per Statcast. Vargas needs to attack pitches and be more aggressive, even if that increases his chase rate overall. 

Until his productivity comes to fruition, Vargas is a tough player to hold on to in shallow formats. His expected stats look great but until his power starts to surface at the major league level, most of his fantasy value will be useful in deeper points leagues. Shallow, category league managers should feel okay letting go if they do not have room to stash an upside player of Vargas’s caliber. Monitor his production on the waiver wire or buy-low in deeper formats while waiting for his counting stats to catch on.

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