Evaluating Hot Early-Season Pitchers: Can They Keep It Up?

We're still less than a month into the 2023 MLB regular season and there are many players bound for regression whether it be on the positive or negative side of the ledger. That's just the reality as hot and cold starts set the table for regression throughout the 162-game grind.

However, it's also fun to dive in and evaluate whether a player is likely to sustain their early-season results, for better or worse. In this piece, we're looking at starting pitchers who are off to excellent starts through their first two or three turns through the rotation and whether or not they will be able to keep it up moving forward. After all, these pitchers are only about 10% into their regular-season workload.

Let's dial in on six pitchers who have come out of the gate firing and whether or not they will continue to dominate for your fantasy baseball roster.

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Can They Keep It Up?

Justin Steele, Cubs

Justin Steele has been about as consistent a pitcher as you can ask for in his young big-league career. The southpaw debuted to the tune of a solid 4.26 ERA between nine starts and 20 appearances spanning 57 innings in the 2021 season. Last season, he turned in a tidy 3.18 ERA in 24 starts and 119 innings as a full-time member of the Cubs rotation. The good news is his supporting numbers backed up the excellent work as he also posted a 3.20 FIP and 3.81 SIERA along with a 24.6% K%.

This season, he's off to a sterling 1.42 ERA across three starts. While the supporting ERA indicators do spell some form of regression, his 3.64 FIP and 3.61 SIERA are still strong numbers. By now, we know we're getting solid if unspectacular strikeout numbers from Steele as he owns a 26.5% K% on the young season and posted a 23.8% mark in 2021 in addition to the aforementioned 24.6% clip from a season ago.

He's gone at least six innings in all three of his starts and most recently hurled seven innings of two-run ball while allowing just three hits and one walk against eight strikeouts against a dangerous Dodgers lineup on the road in Los Angeles. In summation, while he won't maintain a 1.42 ERA, Steele is for real and should be a strong fantasy baseball consideration.

Kyle Freeland, Rockies

Kyle Freeland is another left-hander enjoying a scorching-hot start as he owns a 0.96 ERA in three turns through the rotation. However, unlike Steele, the regression monster should hit in a big way moving forward.

His 3.66 xERA is nice, but he also owns a 4.34 FIP, 5.32 xFIP, and 5.27 SIERA. Freeland is also yielding fly balls at a 51.9% clip but has allowed just two homers in 18 2/3 innings. His ground-ball rate has slipped in each of the last two seasons and sits at just 33.3% this time around. That's a dangerous trend when you pitch your home games at Coors Field.

It's also dangerous rostering a player who simply does not strike anybody out. Freeland has just 11 punchouts in those 18 2/3 frames and owns a career 17.8% K% across 158 career appearances. His control is steady but if you don't miss many bats, Coors is going to eat you alive. Freeland posted an even 6.00 ERA at home last season.

Avoid Freeland as he's going to fall flat on his face sooner than later. Last night's start could be a harbinger of things to come.

Kyle Freeland’s ERA went from 0.96 to 3.80

— Rum Bunter (@rumbunter) April 18, 2023

Wade Miley, Brewers

One of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, Wade Milkey is off to another hot start. Miley has pitched to a 1.50 ERA through three starts and 18 innings of work. He's walked just three in that time while surrendering only one long ball on the season. An elbow issue limited Miley to just nine appearances (eight starts) with the Cubs last season but he posted a healthy 3.16 ERA in that time.

Miley's supporting data is a mixed bag. He owns a 3.16 FIP, which is excellent, but also a 4.20 SIERA. That said, he also sits in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity and 89th in hard-hit rate. His control is excellent by way of a 4.2% BB% but that number should regress given his 8.1% career mark. The biggest problem with Miley is the lack of strikeouts with a career 18.4% mark that is just below his 19.4% clip from this season.

Miley keeps the ball in the yard largely due to a quality ground-ball rate that approaches 50% for his career and sat at 52.6% last season. In turn, he continues to put up solid ERA figures, posting a 3.98 mark or better in four of the past five seasons. While he's likely to keep the runs in check, Miley's lack of strikeouts lowers his overall fantasy baseball value.

Sonny Gray, Twins

Sonny Gray is off to the hottest start of this list as he owns a scrumptious 0.53 ERA through three starts and 17 innings of work. While not everything is rosy under the hood, Gray should still serve fantasy managers well in 2023.

With two standout performances, Sonny Gray is this week's #MNTwins Player of the Week.

Recap of Thursday's blowout: https://t.co/DetZ0YINbH
Subscribe: https://t.co/blr0XC8Cox pic.twitter.com/qaaR3ptem2

— Talkin' Twins ⚾️ (@TalkinTwins) April 14, 2023

His 2.32 FIP is excellent but Gray also owns a 4.03 SIERA. He ranks in the 51st percentile in hard-hit rate and only the 39th percentile in average exit velocity. On the positive side, he ranks in the 71st percentile or better in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, barrel rate, K%, and whiff%. He's punching out the opposition at a 27.9% clip but needs to reign in the walks given his elevated 10.3% BB%.

Gray has seen a dip in what was a fantastic ability to keep the ball on the ground earlier in his career. After posting a 51.1% ground-ball rate in the shortened 2020 season, Gray slipped to a 47.2% mark last season and a 44.5% clip in 2022. He's at just 31.7% this time around but has yet to allow a homer given the lack of hard contact and barrels.

At the end of the day, this is a guy sporting a career 3.53 ERA in 250 appearances. He's posted a 3.08 mark or better in two of his last four seasons and is under 3.70 in three of his last four. He's also posted a strikeout rate of 27% or better in four of his last five seasons. He'll certainly cool off but Gray is very much a fantasy baseball asset on a strong Minnesota Twins club.

Bryce Elder, Braves

Injuries in the rotation have provided Bryce Elder with the opportunity to show what he can do on a full-time basis at the big-league level. The early results are encouraging.

After all, Elder debuted last season as just 23 years of age and spun a 3.17 ERA across 54 innings. He kept the ball on the ground at a healthy 49.3% clip and yielded just 0.67 home runs per nine innings as a result. Through three starts this time around, the right-hander owns a 1.53 ERA in 17 2/3 innings of work. The supporting is cause for pause, however.

While Elder owns a strong 2.59 FIP, his SIERA slips to 3.95 while sporting a mediocre 15.3% K-BB%. Additionally, Elder ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and 24th in average exit velocity. He's between the 57th and 59th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate.

It's interesting that his big-league results have outperformed his most recent minor-league work. Elder owns a 2.76 ERA in 71 2/3 innings at the MLB level but posted a 4.46 ERA in 105 innings at Triple-A last season and was touched up for four runs in six innings in his lone minor-league start this season.

He doesn't stand out in the strikeout department and his suspect metrics are concerning and certainly not worthy of a 1.53 ERA. However, he's worth riding for now as he's 2-0 in three starts as part of a very good Atlanta Braves team.

Hunter Brown, Astros

To say Hunter Brown has hit the ground running at the big-league level is a major understatement. Through 10 appearances (five starts) spanning 39 innings, Brown has pitched to a 1.38 ERA and has yet to allow his first big-league homer. Furthermore, the righty has posted an eye-popping 61.2% ground-ball rate, hence the lack of the long ball.

Brown owns a career 3.37 SIERA and while the Statcast data isn't overwhelming, it's solid enough. He ranks in the 70th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, 63rd in xBA, 77th in xSLG, and 78th in barrel rate. He's more around the league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, whiff rate, and chase rate. His 96.1 mph average fastball ranks in the league's 88th percentile.

At just 24, this is all rather impressive. The fact he's a full-time member of the Houston Astros rotation just adds to the notion that Brown will continue to deliver value for fantasy baseball managers. While he owns a solid 25.5% K% in his brief big-league tenure, his 31.5% clip from last season at Triple-A tells us he has the upside to stand out in the strikeout department. Brown appears to be the real deal and a dynasty league stud.

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