Evaluating Ambiguous Fantasy Football Backfields (2024) - Part II

Rob's second entry where he takes an in-depth look at six ambiguous fantasy football backfields and the ADP of each running back to determine the best targets.

Fantasy football managers often find plenty of fantasy value with ambiguous backfields. Since we don't exactly know how the touch distribution will be dispersed, prices are often reduced due to that uncertainty. If you're one to wait on the running-back position, targeting these backfields can provide much fantasy value if you draft the right one. Luckily, with many of these ambiguous backfields, most options are not overly expensive, and a missed pick will not ruin your fantasy drafts.

In our first entry to this three-part series, we focused on the ambiguous backfields of the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. This second entry will focus on the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys before wrapping up with the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Chargers. These six backfields have plenty of potential but also many unknowns and question marks. To potentially reap the benefits of these backfields, you need to be willing to accept the unknown of how these backfields will shake out. We'll identify which running backs fantasy managers should target from these backfields.

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Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard: RB27, ADP 94 vs. Tyjae Spears: RB37, ADP 119

This is one of the more interesting ambiguous backfields that we have. Pollard was electric in 2022. He finished 15th in rushing yards, 12th in receiving yards, second in yards per reception, fourth in yards per route run, fifth in yards per touch, third in yards per carry, fourth in breakaway run rate, first in yards after contact per rushing attempt, and eighth in yards created per touch.

That level of efficiency, especially on 232 total touches, is wild. Equally wild, however, is the drop-off that Pollard experienced last year. Although, some of that could be attributed to his broken leg in the 2022 playoffs. Still, Pollard wasn't the same player last year as in 2023.

As you can see from the table above, Spears outperformed Pollard in almost every category last season. However, if you compare Spears to Pollard's 2022, you come to a completely different conclusion, which makes this particular ambiguous backfield more difficult to assess.

We're left wondering which Pollard we will see in 2024. It should be noted that in 2022, Pollard worked as the 1B to Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas. He finished with 232 touches to Zeke's 248. Pollard was a clear workhorse running back this past season, touching the ball 307 times compared to Rico Dowdle, who was Dallas's No. 2 running back. He had just 106 touches.

If you look at Pollard's efficiency in 2022 and 2023 and then compare those seasons to his number of touches, you might conclude that he cannot handle such a big workload. He's better and more efficient if his touches are more managed.

Two or three running backs typically possess different skill sets when you have ambiguous backfields. Maybe one is more of a bruiser or an in-between-the-tackles kind of runner, while the other is a more explosive pass-catcher. Determining how the workload will be distributed is much easier in those situations. That's not the case with Tennessee's backfield. Spears and Pollard bring a lot of the same qualities to the table. There is a lot of overlap in their skill sets, which makes this even more difficult.

Given Pollard's experience and Tennessee's willingness to sign him to a decent contract given Spears' productive season, fantasy managers should expect Pollard to lead the way, at least early. This will not be a No. 1 and No. 2 type of backfield. Pollard will be the 1A, and Spears will be the 1B. It's going to be a very close split, and some weeks could very well be a "hot hand" situation until or if someone separates and forces the coaching staff to do something differently.

Realistically, however, given Spears' injury history from college and Pollard's efficiency downfall with more touches last season, we should expect the coaching staff to want to keep this backfield 50/50 to keep both backs healthy and efficient.

Yards per Screen Target Leaders, 2023
[min. 10 receptions]

Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears each averaged 7.00+ YPT and ranked top-10.

Tony Pollard: just 3.93 YPT (bottom-3 among qualifiers)

A new coaching staff, but wouldn't be surprised to see Spears retain passing down work. pic.twitter.com/ROdB0ne8Qk

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 13, 2024

This will come down to who gets the high-value touches because I expect their total touches to be fairly similar, with a slight edge to Pollard. However, there is one area where he struggled immensely with last season -- scoring. Pollard had 72 total red- zone touches, the second most. He had 30 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line and 13 inside the 5-yard line, both of which were the sixth most among running backs. He was also third in red-zone targets.

Given the incredibly strong amount of red-zone work Pollard received, it's amazing he finished with just six total touchdowns, which was 24th most among running backs. If Pollard struggles to punch the ball into the end zone, Spears could easily become the preferred fantasy option because of his potential scoring opportunities.

The Winner: Tyjae Spears

While Pollard's ADP is fine, my projections have him finishing at RB28 for half-PPR PPG. That's more or less exactly where he's being drafted. Spears, on the other hand, will finish as the RB33 based on my projections. That's not a ton of positive value, but it's more than Pollard.

Due to Pollard's struggles near the goal line, Spears could be in line for more of the high-value touches in Tennessee this season. Spears was also a far more effective pass-catcher out of the backfield last season. If Pollard ends up with more touches, but Spears gets an ample share of the targets and goal-line opportunities, Spears should finish ahead of Pollard in fantasy scoring this season. Given Pollard's inefficiency across the board last season and Spears being the cheaper option, fantasy managers should prefer to target to him over Pollard this season.

Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott: RB40, ADP 130 vs. Rico Dowdle: RB43, ADP 141

You're probably thinking one of two things right now, "I'll draft Dowdle or neither." I certainly understand that opinion, especially after Elliott's last two seasons, but I encourage you to keep your mind open because they're the same cost right now. It's a true 50/50 proposition.

Many fantasy managers want nothing to do with Elliott this season; however, if you hold that opinion, I'd like to ask you to do this... scroll up and look at Pollard's stats and efficiency from 2022. Pollard finished 15th in rushing yards, 12th in receiving yards, second in yards per reception, fourth in yards per route run, fifth in yards per touch, third in yards per carry, fourth in breakaway run rate, first in yards after contact per rushing attempt, and eighth in yards created per touch.

Despite that, the Cowboys, which includes the same head coach, still gave Elliott more touches than Pollard. Think about that. Why should we expect this same head coach to do anything differently with Rico Dowdle?

Rico Dowdle touches per season
NFL: 106, 0, 7
CFB: 128, 137, 77, 148
HS: 215, 22, 41

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 21, 2024

In seven seasons in the NFL and college, Dowdle has never had 150 touches in a season. He's never had more than 215 touches in a season since high school. Meanwhile, Elliott had 248 touches in 2022 while competing with Pollard and 235 touches last year with Rhamondre Stevenson.

For all of Elliott's inefficiencies, he still finished as the RB15 in 2022, averaging 12.6 half-PPR PPG. He had eight weeks, and he finished as a top-30 running back. He won't be winning any weeks, but it's certainly possible he will outplay his current ADP. One of the biggest reasons for this is his expected role in the red zone. We already discussed Pollard's red-zone work in 2023 and the sheer volume of his scoring opportunities. Those will now likely fall to Elliott.

Elliott had 35 red-zone rush attempts in 2022 with the Cowboys, 14th most. He was third in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line with 26 and second in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line with 16. That season, he tied for fourth with 12 rushing touchdowns. Considering the strength of the Dallas offense, there's no reason to believe he can't accomplish the same feat in 2024, even if it comes with downright poor efficiency metrics. Dowdle was more efficient than Elliott, averaging 4.8 yards per touch to Elliott's 4.1. Dowdle was also more explosive. His breakaway run rate was 3.4% to Zeke's 0.5%. The question is, will any of that matter?

Dallas running backs had 443 touches last year and 524 touches in 2022. Given the lack of talent in the current backfield, fantasy managers should expect the number of running-back touches to decrease in 2024. Fantasy managers should expect a fairly even split between Zeke and Dowdle; however, given Elliott's experience and how this front office and coaching staff feel about him, it shouldn't be surprising to see Zeke operate as the team's 1A to Dowdle's 1B.

The biggest difference is likely to come in scoring opportunities. Elliott's size and experience will give him the upper hand once Dallas gets to the goal line, and fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if Zeke has a 2022-esque season.

The Winner: Ezekiel Elliott

Fantasy managers shouldn't be overly thrilled about drafting either player. Given Dowdle's touch totals throughout his career, it's unlikely he will suddenly command a high number of touches. On the flip side, Zeke has proven time and time again that he can handle carrying a big workload. Zeke has also shown he can punch the ball into the end zone. With Elliott's touchdown potential, he is the better bet than Dowdle given their price tags, which, at this time, are almost identical.

Drafting Elliott will not be fun; he won't be a league winner, but realistically, Dowdle will not be, either. If his college coaches never felt comfortable giving him even 150 touches and he has 113 touches in three NFL seasons, why should we expect something drastically different in 2024?

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