RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! It's been a long time, but I couldn't resist the opportunity to dust off my computer and get back in the LOL DFS game for a bit, I have missed it quite a bit.
The EUM is back, and all the simmering undercurrents of the passionate European fans that have led to world wars and soccer hooligans can now be settled - ON THE RIFT. I've been digging around for info on these teams, and some of them are familiar from the spring. These are the champions and runners-up from their respective regional leagues. The EU Masters tournament gives us a good look at perspective LEC talent, and some fond reminders of LEC past as teams blend vets and up and comers in their fight for national pride. FanDuel hasn't joined the party yet, but DK has some contests up so that we can sweat some action during the day. Just like spring, we will have four days of six-game slates then a break. September 4th, we'll see each group finish out on their play in a single day. After that, we'll proceed to the bracket stage where the group's top seeds face the twos from the other groups in the best of five elimination matches, finally Bo5. The Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the EU Masters slates on DraftKings that lock at 10:30 AM ET on Monday, August 30th, 2021. Also, make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger, as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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10:30 AM: AGO Rogue (+200) vs. Misfits Premier (-275)
We get to start the main stage off with a banger! Two teams near the top of tier lists kick us off, with the third seed from Polish Ultraliga AGO Rogue taking on the first seed from the LFL Misfits Premier. Both of these organizations and leagues have been historically very strong in EUM play. Rogue finished first in their regular season with a 12-2 record but bowed out of the playoffs without winning a game in two matches. Rogue opened with a loss to PDW, which we will see tomorrow, and continued their losing ways going down to Illuminar, who we will see later today. MSF finished their regular season third, but they ousted both teams that finished ahead of them in 3-1 fashion, including EU Masters Spring champions Karmine Corp.
Statistically, these teams line up very well with each other, and it should be a close match. Both teams excel in the early game, with MSF holding the edge in first blood and Rogue having a higher rift herald and first turret rating. They also have a fantastic GD@15 of 3369, first in the Ultraliga compared to MSFP with 994 GD@15, good for third in the LFL. Rogue's total gold per minute is also higher, and they have a 91% win rate when ahead at the 15-minute mark.
With these top teams from high-powered regions, we could see a bit of a playoff mentality as neither side wants to risk giving the other a leg up early in group play. Both teams return the same rosters from the spring edition of the tournament and, along with UCAM, are the favs in this group. Rogue project well, though given MSFP 19.5 deaths per loss over the summer season. Unfortunately for them, MSFP did down AGO Rogue 2-0 in the spring, and given Rogue's struggles in their playoffs, I think we could see a similar result here.
This could go either way, but I'll look for a dog or pass route on this one, as I believe AGO Rogue has the higher upside. However, MSFP did put up 19 and 20 kills in their wins over Rogue in the spring, so if you want to stick with the favs and ride the LFL's recent strength, I don't blame you. I prefer Rogue's gold generation stats, the projections, and the discount.
Top AGO Rogue Plays:
- Lucker - ADC - 30% KS leads the team in their wins.
- Pyrka - SUP - 70% KP paces the team.
- Lurox - JNG - A veteran presence with LEC experience and an ax to grind versus Shlatan from the losses in the spring.
- Chres - MID - A versatile mid who has played 25 unique champions throughout the season.
11:30 AM: Anorthosis Famagusta (+180)vs. UCAM Esports (-240)
This one is another matchup between two teams that participated in the spring edition of EU Masters. AF bowed out in the group stage, going 2-4, but posting an impressive win over K1 from the Ultraligia. UCAM went 6-0 in their group and lost in the semifinals to the eventual champs. AF is the GLL champs, but Greece has been a weaker region in the past EUM competitions. UCAM had a rough summer split but turned it up in the playoffs knocking off G2 Arctic and Mad Lions Madrid en route to a loss in the finals versus the Vodafone Giants.
AF dominated the GLL and have the stats to match. They compare favorably with UCAM and could come out with an early lead based on their high rift herald rate. UCAM, though has much better vision stats and baron percentage. That and they have been battle-tested in a better region and past EU Masters competitions.
UCAM are the clear favorites here and return 4 of 5 players from the spring split squad. Anothosis kept their mid-jungle duo intact but added a new bot duo from another league and a top laner from one of their rivals. This retooled AF squad has put up INSANE numbers in the GLL, averaging over 28 kills per win and nearly 20 deaths per loss. In addition, AF has the highest pace of any team at the event, pushing out almost 1.5 combined kills and deaths per minute. That makes this an attractive matchup on both sides. I do like taking some shots on AF in large fields.
Top Anorthosis Famagusta Plays:
- JOJOC - MID - He leads the team in kill share in their wins.
- Dom1nant - JNG - holds the second-highest KP% on the team.
- iLevi - SUP- leads the team in KP%.
- JaxPlank - TOP - his opposite number leads the team in death percentage
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12:30 PM: Fnatic Rising (+155) vs. Berlin International Gaming (-195)
Fnatic Rising have changed out their mid laner after Feviben retired, and after falling short in the spring play-ins, they made it through in the summer to return to the main stage for the first time since 2020 summer. Berlin International had a disappointing run in the spring edition of EU Masters, losing to Prime League rival mousesports in the bracket stage. BIG traded out their top and jungle but returned the same mid and bot duo.
We've got another statistically close matchup here, and again as most of these teams were at or near the top of their respective regions, it shouldn't be a huge surprise. This matchup is nearly comical in the way the teams mirror one another. CSM, GPM, first blood, first turret, drakes, early game rating, late-game rating, and vision numbers for both teams are all within five percent of each other. FNC has a better herald rate, while BIG has the edge in barons, both of those by 19% to each side.
With only slight differences in the stats for these teams, it may come down to the strength of the schedule. The Prime League has historically been the stronger of the two regions, but with BT XL making a deep run in the spring, it may be the NLC's time to shine. I will still give the edge to BIG in the matchup, but both teams have the potential to score very well here. FNC has given up nearly 19 kills in their losses, with BIG being slightly over 19, and both teams are over 20.5 kills in their wins.
Top BIG Plays:
- RKR - MID - He led the team in KP% and KS% in the Prime League playoffs.
- Akabane - JNG - Mid-jungle duos are so hot right now.
- Keduii - ADC - As close as this matchup is, the game could last quite some time, and a complete six-item ADC is always a threat.
- Seaz - SUP - 65% KP isn't great for support, but with the pace of this matchup, it will be tough to avoid a full-stack.
1:30 PM: Zero Tenacity (-135) vs. Illuminar Gaming (+105)
With a name like Zero Tenacity, you hardly need me to break down who's going to take this one, do you? They were the Balkan league's regular split and playoff champions defeating Crvena Zvezda Esports 3-2. They were known as Z10 in the spring. They won their play in a group but failed to qualify for the main stage. Illuminar is a team we have seen at this competition multiple times, but this roster is entirely different from the one that couldn't escape the group stage in spring. ILG was only 7-7 in their regular split, but they ran the entire Ultraliga gauntlet, only losing in the finals 3-2.
The questions of league strength are again in play as Poland has been typically much stronger than the Balkans in international play. This could be another good upset spot as Z10 are a much better early game team than are ILG. ILG has a much better late game, though, and I think that coupled with their pedigree should give them the edge here. ILG tends to play a slower style which could suppress scoring in the match. I'll stick to small stacks from ILG if I play much here.
This is a matchup that I had projected the line to be nearly the opposite of what it opened at. I'm pretty surprised at Z10 opening as the favs here. I think this will make ILG quite popular for this opening slate, and I would expect this line to move over the next day.
Top ILG Plays:
- Chris - JNG - Mid-jungle duos again. 75% KP and near 30% KS in the playoffs.
- Eścik - MID - Slightly less KP% than his jungler, but slightly higher KS% this duo will carry the game for ILG.
- Illuminar Gaming - Team - Even with Z10 having the edge in many statistical categories, I think the ILG team could score well if this game goes long, and they averaged 36 minutes per game in the playoffs.
2:30 PM: Macko Esports (-120) vs. Vodafone Giants (-110)
All of these groups are pretty strong, but for Macko, this may just be the group of death. The Giants barely squeaked into the Superliga playoffs but caught fire once there riding to the title. Macko dominated the Italian league, winning first in the regular season and spring and summer playoffs. They swapped out their bot lane from spring to summer but didn't miss a beat. The Giant's, too, have had some roster movement between spring and summer, but the bot duo remains as consistent as ever, with former LEC players Attila and Kasing holding it down.
Even with Macko dominating their league, the Giants should have the edge in the early game. VG has the advantage in herald and first turret by a fair margin. Macko leads in first blood and GD@15, but I expect the Giant's to claim the first turret and hold the early edge. VG also has a significant lead in drake percentage and far superior vision numbers, which leads me to believe they will maintain any lead they accrue.
This line is another that I was surprised to see, and I expect it too will move over to Vodafone Giants. Giants also project well here, with Macko averaging over 20 deaths per loss. Giant's should carry a high roster percentage to go with these factors. I won't let that bother me and will have plenty of VG stacks for Monday's slate.
Top GIA Plays:
- Attila - ADC - After an insane playoff run that ended with a 28.8 KDA and a team-leading 37% kill share, he's got to be the number one option.
- kaSing - SUP - Averaged nearly 80% KP in playoffs.
- 113 - JNG - Second in both kill metrics.
- Th3Antonio - TOP - this is more of a comment on the supportive role that Miniduke plays than anything special from Antonio. His opposite number Stenbosse leads the team in death percentage as well.
3:30 PM: mousesports (+155) vs. Karmine Corp (-195)
The main stage started with a banger, and it will end with one too. The spring EU Master's champion Karmine Corp faces off with the third-place team from spring mousesports. KC downgraded losing top lane prospect Adam to FNC, but they added LEC stalwart Cabochard to replace him. Cabo's veteran presence will mitigate any talent drop-off from that of Adam. mousesports return a similar roster from spring, trading out Lider for Czekolad and Enjawve for Kamilius at support. KC comes in as the second seed from LFL losing in the finals to MSFP, and mouse should be warmed up after finishing third in the Prime League and fighting their way through the play-ins.
I'll be looking for KC to push the pace in this matchup as they hold a significant edge in early stats. KC lead in first blood, first turret, GD@15, and early game rating. Mouse does have a slightly higher rift herald percentage, but KC answer with higher drake and baron numbers. The two teams didn't face each other in the spring tournament, but KC did down XL 3-1, who defeated mouse 2-1 in the semis. So via the stats and the transitive property, I like Karmine Corp for the win in this one.
KC project well as they averaged 19.6 kills in their wins and mouse 19.91 deaths in their losses. Those numbers combine to put KC in the second-highest projection of the slate for me and a much higher probability of reaching it than the other top projected team. Karmine Corp's Blue Wall will be out in force on Twitter and in person, and I expect they will start their run to defend the spring title in style.
Top KC plays:
- Xmatty - ADC - Leads the team in both kill metrics.
- Targamas - SUP - Second to his ADC in KP%
- Saken - MID - The table setter for this team is third in KP% and second in KS%.
- Cabochard - TOP - His opposite number Sartorius leads the team in death percentage.
Summary
- TLDR - Rogue, Anorthosis, BIG, Illuminar, Giants, and Karmine Corp are my picks to win. Even with a couple of big upsets in there, I don't think you need to go crazy, as the larger the slate, the less wild you need to get with your plays. You can build a very potent roster out of the favorites and slight dogs that might very well be favs by the time the slate locks.
- After a few weeks of playoffs in the major regions, we bounce back to BO1, which can result in some very wild outcomes. Couple the format with the level of play, and you could see some crazy sloppy games pay off in a game stack takedown.
- Other outlier outcomes that are more easily believable are a pop-off from the jungle, support, or top laners outscoring their more expensive carry players.
I'm glad to have been back for this one, I hope you enjoy the content, and I'll try to make it back for a couple of breakdowns at the upcoming world championships.
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