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Welcome back RotoBallers to my League of Legends DFS column! We will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. Thanks once again for the outpouring of support from the DFS and eSports communities. I can't thank you enough for the kind words on Twitter, and your support has afforded me the opportunity to write about something I love every day.
We're on to the knockout section of the EU Masters. The first-place teams from groups are matched up with the second-place teams from the other groups. These knockout matches will be a best of three format, and that should help our better teams to advance. Spring season is coming to a close, but there are still some massive contests posted in the FanDuel, and DraftKings lobbies, including the 15-dollar Shock Blast that pays 50k to first place!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the EU Masters slates on DraftKings and FanDuel that lock at 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, May 5th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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12:00 PM: Mouse Esports (-235) vs. Rogue (+170)
Group D's first-place squad face off with the second seed from group B in this first match of the knockout round. Both teams feature LEC level talent in the likes of Lider, Woolite, Mystiques, Jeskla, and Promisq. Both teams have a LEC caliber bot lane, but Rogue focuses more on theirs.
Mouse use their strong solo-laners to focus more on the top side of the map, and this shows with their high priority placed on the rift herald. Mouse has a 75% rift herald take in the tournament, and 60% herald take in their home region. They use the advantages gained by their solo-laners, along with their high rift herald percentage to take the first turret of the game 83% of the time.
This strategy has netted them an average gold lead at fifteen minutes of 2437 during the tournament. Rogue, on the other hand, focuses more on the bot side of the map and have a nearly 60% dragon take percentage. These have both been very successful strategies this entire season in league of legends across all regions.
I believe in this instance; we have to take a look at both bot lanes more closely. Aphelios will be a contentious pick during the draft phase as it is both carries most played champion, but Woolite has had success on any of the current late-game carries, including Varus and Senna as well. Jeskla hasn't, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a mage into the bot lanes like Ziggs, which is a pick that has a 57% win rate in the prime league this spring.
Jeskla is 4-1 on the champ this split, and it is relatively unknown in the Ultraliga, Rogue's home league. Woolite hadn't seen a mage in the bot lane since last years spring EU Masters when Fnatic's xMatty brought Veigar to the ADC role. So what does all this mean, Jeskla should be able to match Woolite with Aphelios as late-game insurance or beat him to the punch with a Ziggs or Syndra pick going into the bot lane.
Rogue focusing bot lane will not work out as well as it has either in their home league or thus far in the tournament. Being up against another LEC quality bot duo will limit what they want to do their whereas Mouse can pick a safe support for Promisq to protect Jeskla with and leave the bottom lane to fend for itself.
That will free up Mouse to focus where they have the biggest advantage, LIDER. Long famed for his assassin play the Mouse mid-laner has busted out Azir twice this tournament gone undefeated on the champion. Not only has this been a pleasant surprise for the since of Mouse it would also be a big takeaway from Czekolad.
The Rogue mid has played eight games on the Emporer of the Sands going 5-3. I think targeting the MID matchup and playing aggressively to the top side of the map looking to snowball early kills, farm advantage, rift heralds, and towers are going to give Mouse the edge in this matchup.
If we've learned anything in EU Masters thus far, it's that the favorites are never secure, and it's a two-game slate, so anything goes. I think Mouse win this 2-1 and that the best of three format gives the favorites more security. I also like that Rogue gives up over 20 kills in their losses, which will make it worth paying up for some of these Mouse players.
Lider - MID ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
The mid-laner for Mouse leads both EU Masters and Prime League in average kills per game, CSM, and Gold per minute for mids. I believe that Mouse will look to focus on his matchup, trying to get him ahead early. Even if left to his own devices, the Mouse mid can get himself ahead; he is second in the entire pro scene with 34 solo kills on the year more than ten ahead of third place.
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12:45 PM: LDLC (-125) vs. BTXL (-110)
Once these odds came out, I was a little surprised to see LDLC listed as the favorites. Then again, they are a team I have been wrong on more than once, and here we go again. Just like last round where they defeated S04, I think the only way for LDLC to take this matchup is for Tynx to hard carry out of the jungle.
I mentioned last time that S04 had been shaky during the draft phase, and that could be their undoing. They promptly went out and surrendered Graves to Tynx. Tynx came into the pro scene as a Graves one trick, and he will take the champion in any meta. Giving it up in the current version of the game is unacceptable, especially to someone so well versed on the champion.
XL has a high priority on Graves as well as Trundle themselves. This shows they have a good grasp of the current meta, and I believe they will not surrender high priority picks to Tynx. At least not without countering them with Taxer's champion pool.
LDLC is fantasy darlings having pulled the upset of S04, but I think that both of their wins in Sunday's tiebreaker matches have more to do with the other team's shortcomings. I like XL here to continue their current hot streak, which did include a win over GamersOrigin, the team that defeated this LDLC squad in the French League playoffs.
XL has shown high priority to the bot side in the tournament, securing 75% of the dragons in their matchups. This strategy is going to put them on the bottom of the map, which I believe coincides with their biggest win condition. Deadly and kaSing are a much better bot lane than Hades and YellOwStaR.
Hades brings an insane 37 KDA during the tournament into this matchup, and they too are hot coming off their run in the tiebreakers. I like hedging this matchup and will have pieces of both sides on Tuesday. This match is my favorite one to go heavy on for Tuesday's slate, and both of these teams have shown a scrappier style that leads to fantasy goodness.
Send0o - TOP ($5,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Send0o has a similar KP% and kill share on the year to that of the mid-laner Special that will make him a great value piece for slate. He has played a ton of Ornn throughout the tournament giving him some nice assist upside.
Deadly - ADC ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
The ADC is second on his team in KP% and first in kill share with 33.2% that's 8.5% higher than second place. He is 6-0 on Miss Fortune for the year, and also unbeaten on Aphelios. I made my love for Deadly known on the last slate he was on, and I was rewarded handsomely with a 3-0 performance by XL.
Summary
- We're all pretty familiar with two-game slates by now, so anything goes. I like the second match to be the bloodier one and more fantasy-friendly.
- The change to the best of three format takes game stacks out of play for me, but it could make an expensive one-off a good play.
- I like Excel and Mouse to advance Tuesday, and we should have two more two-game slates coming up with the other quarterfinals being played Wednesday. The semis will be on Saturday featuring the winners of these four matches, and I'll see you then!
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Looking Forward
The League of Legends DFS action never stops, and we here at Rotoballer have got you covered. EU masters are in full swing, and soon it will be summer split before you know it.
Be sure to check back throughout the week as we'll be publishing daily eSports DFS articles, analysis and lineup picks for League Of Legends, Counter Strike, Rocket League and eNASCAR. Thanks for reading, and good luck RotoBallers!
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