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Former Lions and Colts tight end Eric Ebron is heading to the Steel City to play with Pittsburgh this fall. The 26-year-old signed a two-year, $12-million deal with the Steelers and now looks to make an impact on the team coming off a disappointing 2019.
With the Steelers TE1 position essentially up for grabs, Ebron has a chance to be a great fantasy pickup in drafts this summer. But can he recapture the magic of his 2018 season when he led all tight ends with 13 touchdowns?
Let’s breakdown the fantasy value for this enigmatic athlete.
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Cold on the Colts
Ebron had a down-year in 2019 with the Colts, his sixth year in the NFL, accumulating 52 targets (second-lowest of career), 31 receptions (second-lowest of career), 375 yards (second-lowest of career), three touchdowns (third-lowest of career), and 34.1 yards per game (second-lowest of career).
After a breakout year with Indy in 2018 that saw him record career highs in the same categories mentioned above (110 targets, 66 receptions, 750 yards, 13 touchdowns), fantasy owners scratched their heads after seeing how low it got with his value last season. He went from a monster fantasy asset to below the average in one season.
Part of the issue in regards to the UNC product’s plummet in 2019 was the utilization of a two-tight end set with Jack Doyle which capped “the sky is the limit” production capacity for Ebron. When comparing Doyle and Ebron’s stats from last season, the former finished with 43 receptions, 72/141 TE targets (51 percent), 448 yards, and four touchdowns while the latter compiled 31 receptions, 52/141 targets (36.8 percent), 375 yards, and three touchdowns.
The clear presence of two capable tight ends severely hindered Ebron’s fantasy value last season. Now it’s understandable as to why the Colts let Ebron walk in free agency, as they had another solid piece already. However, the former Colt can now fill a major void on the Steelers and try to regain sole TE1 status.
The Steelers’ Struggling Tight Ends
Though 2019 saw the absence of QB Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers also had no tight end production either. Overall, the unit of four featuring Vance McDonald, Nick Vannett, Xavier Grimble, and Zach Gentry compiled 53 receptions, 76 targets, 408 yards, and three touchdowns, and thus signaled a clear need of improvement in production at the position. I mean, Ebron alone wasn’t too far off from this unit in regards to stats.
Vance McDonald led the Steelers TEs with 38 receptions, 55/76 targets (72 percent), 273 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Therefore, the former 49er remains a candidate to hinder Ebron’s production considering he had a leading TE role on the team in 2019.
It’s undetermined whether Pittsburgh uses a two-tight end set or one starter, but McDonald’s role on the team should not be undermined. With the addition of Ebron, the Steelers now have capable starters at RB, WR, and TE, thus leading them to possibly focus on QB or defensive pieces in the 2020 draft.
With Big Ben slated to return in 2020 along with the addition of Ebron, the fantasy value of the WRs will now fluctuate. With QBs Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph running the show for most of last season, WR James Washington racked up 44 receptions, 80/510 targets (15.6 percent), 735 yards, and three touchdowns while counterpart WR Diontae Johnson amassed 59 receptions, 92/580 targets (18 percent), 680 yards, and five touchdowns.
Though both receivers were on the fantasy teams or radar of many owners last season, this production will likely decrease in 2020. This is taking note that JuJu Smith-Schuster, the star wide receiver who had an off-year in 2019 due to Big Ben’s absence, should be a bounce-back candidate in fantasy.
In 2018, Smith-Schuster was the leading receiver on the team even with Antonio Brown in the mix. He had a ridiculous 111 receptions (T-6th among NFL receivers), 166/589 targets (24 percent and 4th among NFL receivers), 1,426 yards (5th among NFL receivers), and seven touchdowns compared to 42 receptions, 70/510 targets (13.7 percent), 552 yards, and three touchdowns in 2019. Big Ben makes the difference and Smith-Schuster should regain his status as WR1 on the team in 2020 and hopefully be an elite fantasy option again.
On top of that, the addition of Ebron should cut into the production of Washington and Johnson because the TE position will likely see more targets and yards. Therefore, Washington and Johnson could be viewed as fantasy flex plays at best. Meanwhile, Ebron and Smith-Schuster should get a steady flow of targets which would merit them both fantasy relevance.
McDonald vs. Ebron - Fantasy Outlooks
In the end, it’s going to come down to Vance McDonald vs. Eric Ebron for the Steelers' TE1 spot. Because we don’t know the play distribution for both players, there may be a tiny risk in drafting either in a high spot. Either one of these TEs can bring down the fantasy value of the other depending on playing time.
If it’s equal playing time, that leaves no room for explosive and consistent fantasy production weekly. Nevertheless, Ebron was signed for a reason and he should be viewed as the better candidate to draft in fantasy considering he’s younger and proved he can be productive in years past like 2018. A reasonable expectation for Ebron is that he can finish a top-20 fantasy TE while McDonald could be in the top-30.
Essentially, Ebron could serve as a great starting TE in large redraft fantasy leagues (think 12-14 teams) or as a second TE in smaller leagues. McDonald shouldn’t be considered much of a worthy fantasy draft pick at this point.
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