Eric Cross' Top 100 Dynasty Rankings for Fantasy Baseball (July 2024)

3 months ago by Eric Cross

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The second half of July is always exciting for fantasy baseball purposes. Not only do we have the MLB draft and new faces joining my dynasty and prospect rankings, but we also have the MLB trade deadline, which causes values to change a bit as well.

Since my June update, we've seen plenty of values change. Breakouts are becoming more believable now, and some struggling star players have started turning their seasons around.

Below, you'll find my Top 100 Dynasty Rankings from my June update, with notes on some key movers this month. Check out my Patreon for my full Top 500 Dynasty Rankings.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

What Factors Into My Rankings

Many elements go into dynasty rankings, but I primarily weigh the following:

Current/Recent Performance
Expected future short-term performance
Expected future long-term performance
Profile/metrics analysis
Durability
Team Context (it matters a little bit)

Dynasty Rankings Notes

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

There aren't many hitters hotter than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. right now. Over his last 12 games, Guerrero is hitting .522 with six doubles and eight home runs, and has a ridiculous 13 doubles and 14 home runs over his last 32 games. For the season, Vladdy has a 14% barrel rate, 94.5 mph AVG EV, and 56.7% hard-hit rate, and has an AVG EV above 93 mph on all three pitch types. The metrics have always been elite with Guerrero, but a higher groundball rate has limited him to some degree.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a laser beam to center 💥 pic.twitter.com/ae8AYof7xU

— MLB (@MLB) July 30, 2024

However, over the last 30 days, Guerrero's groundball rate is down to 43.2% after being over 50% earlier in the season. This version of Vlad is a Top-15 player. Can the lower groundball rate stick, though? That's why I haven't bumped him back into my Top-15 quite yet.

Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

One of the biggest jumps in the top part of my Top 500 rankings this month was Boston outfielder Jarren Duran who has quickly turned into one of the most exciting players in baseball. In 494 plate appearances so far this season, Duran is slashing .290/.349/.504 with 33 doubles, 12 triples, 13 home runs, 23 steals, and 76 runs scored. The only other two players with at least 10 home runs, 20 steals, 70 runs, and a .290 AVG right now are two fellows named Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani.

Pre-swing change (43G): .256/.325/.395, 1 HR, 16 XBH

Post swing change (57G): .310/.362/.571, 11 HR, 36 XBH

The underlying data and mechanical adjustments detailed in the piece backs up the breakout as well. https://t.co/H3SD5IYZUc pic.twitter.com/9AvMtkiqzJ

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 23, 2024

Duran hinted at this type of breakout last season, which is why I was so adamant about drafting him this spring and acquiring him in as many dynasty leagues as I could. But the real and full breakout has happened over the last two months or so after Duran made a swing change, as Aram Leighton from Just Baseball detailed so well above. Duran has finally found that happy medium and is really flourishing right now. He's improved his walk and strikeout rates this season with above-average contact and quality of contact metrics. I'm 100% buying.

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Without question, Ketel Marte is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. I've been 100% guilty of that in my rankings as well, but that ends now. In nearly 200 fewer plate appearances, Marte has nearly replicated his home run (24) and stolen base (6) totals from last season while slashing .302/.370/.544. Marte continues to show a great approach at the plate with a 9.9% walk rate, 17.4% strikeout rate, and above-average contact rates, but it's been really encouraging to see his already solid quality of contact metrics take a step forward this season.

After posting an 8% barrel rate, 91.1 mph AVG EV, and 42.8% hard-hit rate in 2023, Marte has improved those to 11%, 93.8 mph, and 53.8%, respectively. All three of those are career-best marks for Marte. This is a surefire Top-50 overall player and might even be the #1 option at second base if Mookie Betts loses eligibility after this season.

Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies

If you had told me back in March that I'd be ranking Brenton Doyle inside my Top 100 in July, I probably would have looked at you funny. But when tangible changes are made, and a player breaks out, their ranking needs to change accordingly. In 419 plate appearances this season, Doyle is slashing .273/.335/.473 with 17 home runs and 21 steals, giving him a shot at a 25/30 season if he continues his current pace. The overall production has been great to see, but it's the improvements under the hood that have me buying into this 2024 version of Doyle.

On top of Doyle improving his quality of contact metrics, Doyle has improved all of his contact and approach metrics by a decent margin this season. As long as these improvements stick moving forward, Doyle should continue to provide Top 100 of better value for fantasy.

Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox

Maybe I'm spoiling the surprise, but you'll see below that I have Garrett Crochet as a Top-5 pitcher now. And when I tweeted this out several days ago, some asked how I could rank Crochet so high already. Well, we're okay with making Paul Skenes the #1 SP but not Crochet being in the top five? I'm not saying Crochet is as good as Skenes, but he was a Top-10 pick himself back in 2020 and has been just as good as Skenes has been since Skenes debuted. In his last 16 starts, Crochet has posted an exceptional 2.13 ERA (1.83 FIP). 0.94 WHIP, 5.3% walk rate, and a 35.6% strikeout rate.

Again, I'm not saying Crochet should be ranked where Skenes is, but everything about Crochet screams Top-5 pitcher.

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

There hasn't been a better pitcher in baseball over the last two months than Taj Bradley. Yes, he's been even better than Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and whatever other name you want to throw out there. Over his last nine starts, Bradley has posted a stellar 0.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.5% walk rate, and a 30.8% strikeout rate. Opposing batters have only hit .162 off Bradley during this stretch, and he's only allowed one earned run combined in his last five starts.

Taj Bradley, 97mph ⛽️

5th K pic.twitter.com/AKqDx64lBo

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 25, 2024

Bradley is generating more ground balls and whiffs this season and has a whiff rate above 30% and a BAA under .160 on his splitter, curveball, and cutter. He's now inside my Top-20 pitcher rankings for Dynasty and is inching closer to the ace discussion.

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Updated: July 2024 | The full Top 500, along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Age	Previous
1	Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	KCR	24.12	1
2	Juan Soto	OF	NYY	25.76	2
3	Shohei Ohtani	UT/SP	LAA	30.07	3
4	Gunnar Henderson	SS	BAL	23.08	6
5	Kyle Tucker	OF	HOU	27.53	4
6	Ronald Acuna Jr.	OF	ATL	26.61	5
7	Elly De La Cruz	SS	CIN	22.54	8
8	Aaron Judge	OF	NYY	32.26	11
9	Fernando Tatis Jr.	OF	SDP	25.57	9
10	Yordan Alvarez	OF	HOU	27.09	12
11	Mookie Betts	2B/SS/OF	LAD	31.81	10
12	Bryce Harper	1B	PHI	31.78	13
13	Wyatt Langford	OF	TEX	22.70	15
14	Rafael Devers	3B	BOS	27.76	14
15	Jose Ramirez	3B	CLE	31.86	16
16	Paul Skenes	SP	PIT	22.16	25
17	Tarik Skubal	SP	DET	27.69	19
18	Julio Rodriguez	OF	SEA	23.58	7
19	Trea Turner	SS	PHI	31.08	18
20	Corey Seager	SS	TEX	30.26	17
21	James Wood	OF	WAS	21.86	28
22	Corbin Carroll	OF	ARI	23.93	24
23	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	TOR	25.37	33
24	Royce Lewis	3B	MIN	25.15	21
25	Luis Robert Jr.	OF	CHW	26.98	22
26	Francisco Lindor	SS	NYM	30.71	30
27	Freddie Freeman	1B	LAD	34.88	26
28	Riley Greene	OF	DET	23.83	38
29	Jackson Chourio	OF	MIL	20.38	36
30	Austin Riley	3B	ATL	27.32	23
31	Jarren Duran	OF	BOS	27.89	80
32	Matt Olson	1B	ATL	30.34	20
33	Pete Alonso	1B	NYM	29.64	29
34	CJ Abrams	SS	WAS	23.81	44
35	Corbin Burnes	SP	BAL	29.77	27
36	Ketel Marte	2B	ARI	30.80	76
37	Coby Mayo	3B	BAL	22.63	90
38	Ozzie Albies	2B	ATL	27.55	34
39	Garrett Crochet	SP	CHW	24.97	55
40	Junior Caminero	3B	TBR	21.06	37
41	Jackson Holliday	2B	BAL	20.65	32
42	Jose Altuve	2B	HOU	34.23	39
43	Spencer Strider	SP	ATL	25.75	40
44	Tyler Glasnow	SP	LAD	30.93	41
45	Triston Casas	1B	BOS	24.53	42
46	Jordan Westburg	2B/3B	BAL	25.44	45
47	George Kirby	SP	SEA	26.48	46
48	Gerrit Cole	SP	NYY	33.89	43
49	William Contreras	C	MIL	26.59	47
50	Cole Ragans	SP	KCR	26.63	66
51	Grayson Rodriguez	SP	BAL	24.70	35
52	Zack Wheeler	SP	PHI	34.17	49
53	Logan Gilbert	SP	SEA	27.23	75
54	Michael Harris II	OF	ATL	23.39	31
55	Eury Perez	SP	MIA	21.28	51
56	Adley Rutschman	C	BAL	26.47	52
57	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	SP	LAD	25.94	54
58	Luis Castillo	SP	SEA	31.66	53
59	Jasson Dominguez	OF	NYY	21.47	65
60	Aaron Nola	SP	PHI	31.15	60
61	Noelvi Marte	3B	CIN	22.78	81
62	Randy Arozarena	OF	SEA	29.41	74
63	Zac Gallen	SP	ARI	28.99	58
64	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	OF	NYY	26.49	77
65	Taj Bradley	SP	TBR	23.35	185
66	Oneil Cruz	SS	PIT	25.81	63
67	Jared Jones	SP	PIT	22.98	62
68	Christian Yelich	OF	MIL	32.65	50
69	Will Smith	C	LAD	29.34	67
70	Max Fried	SP	ATL	30.53	73
71	Josh Naylor	1B	CLE	27.10	83
72	Pablo Lopez	SP	MIN	28.39	64
73	Manny Machado	3B	SDP	32.06	61
74	Freddy Peralta	SP	MIL	28.15	68
75	Matt McLain	2B/SS	CIN	24.98	69
76	Mike Trout	OF	LAA	32.98	71
77	Cody Bellinger	OF/1B	CHC	29.05	72
78	Bryan Reynolds	OF	PIT	29.50	96
79	Shane McClanahan	SP	TBR	27.25	89
80	Marcus Semien	2B	TEX	33.87	59
81	Tanner Houck	SP	BOS	28.08	95
82	Hunter Greene	SP	CIN	24.98	105
83	Brenton Doyle	OF	COL	26.21	250
84	Logan Webb	SP	SFG	27.69	79
85	Anthony Volpe	SS	NYY	23.25	48
86	Seiya Suzuki	OF	CHC	29.95	88
87	Dylan Cease	SP	SDP	28.58	86
88	Charlie Condon	3B/OF	COL	21.28	NR
89	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	KCR	26.80	87
90	Luis Gil	SP	NYY	26.15	82
91	Jackson Merrill	OF	SDP	21.27	126
92	Chris Sale	SP	ATL	35.34	137
93	Spencer Steer	1B/OF	CIN	26.64	99
94	Joe Ryan	SP	MIN	28.15	101
95	Jordan Lawlar	SS	ARI	22.03	78
96	Nick Lodolo	SP	CIN	26.48	103
97	Adolis Garcia	OF	TEX	31.41	56
98	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	COL	22.99	119
99	Colt Keith	2B	DET	22.95	169
100	Kevin Gausman	SP	TOR	33.56	98

If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see the full Top 500, along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.

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