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The second half of July is always exciting for fantasy baseball purposes. Not only do we have the MLB draft and new faces joining my dynasty and prospect rankings, but we also have the MLB trade deadline, which causes values to change a bit as well.
Since my June update, we've seen plenty of values change. Breakouts are becoming more believable now, and some struggling star players have started turning their seasons around.
Below, you'll find my Top 100 Dynasty Rankings from my June update, with notes on some key movers this month. Check out my Patreon for my full Top 500 Dynasty Rankings.
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What Factors Into My Rankings
Many elements go into dynasty rankings, but I primarily weigh the following:
- Current/Recent Performance
- Expected future short-term performance
- Expected future long-term performance
- Profile/metrics analysis
- Durability
- Team Context (it matters a little bit)
Dynasty Rankings Notes
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
There aren't many hitters hotter than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. right now. Over his last 12 games, Guerrero is hitting .522 with six doubles and eight home runs, and has a ridiculous 13 doubles and 14 home runs over his last 32 games. For the season, Vladdy has a 14% barrel rate, 94.5 mph AVG EV, and 56.7% hard-hit rate, and has an AVG EV above 93 mph on all three pitch types. The metrics have always been elite with Guerrero, but a higher groundball rate has limited him to some degree.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a laser beam to center 💥 pic.twitter.com/ae8AYof7xU
— MLB (@MLB) July 30, 2024
However, over the last 30 days, Guerrero's groundball rate is down to 43.2% after being over 50% earlier in the season. This version of Vlad is a Top-15 player. Can the lower groundball rate stick, though? That's why I haven't bumped him back into my Top-15 quite yet.
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
One of the biggest jumps in the top part of my Top 500 rankings this month was Boston outfielder Jarren Duran who has quickly turned into one of the most exciting players in baseball. In 494 plate appearances so far this season, Duran is slashing .290/.349/.504 with 33 doubles, 12 triples, 13 home runs, 23 steals, and 76 runs scored. The only other two players with at least 10 home runs, 20 steals, 70 runs, and a .290 AVG right now are two fellows named Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani.
Pre-swing change (43G): .256/.325/.395, 1 HR, 16 XBH
Post swing change (57G): .310/.362/.571, 11 HR, 36 XBH
The underlying data and mechanical adjustments detailed in the piece backs up the breakout as well. https://t.co/H3SD5IYZUc pic.twitter.com/9AvMtkiqzJ
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 23, 2024
Duran hinted at this type of breakout last season, which is why I was so adamant about drafting him this spring and acquiring him in as many dynasty leagues as I could. But the real and full breakout has happened over the last two months or so after Duran made a swing change, as Aram Leighton from Just Baseball detailed so well above. Duran has finally found that happy medium and is really flourishing right now. He's improved his walk and strikeout rates this season with above-average contact and quality of contact metrics. I'm 100% buying.
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
Without question, Ketel Marte is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. I've been 100% guilty of that in my rankings as well, but that ends now. In nearly 200 fewer plate appearances, Marte has nearly replicated his home run (24) and stolen base (6) totals from last season while slashing .302/.370/.544. Marte continues to show a great approach at the plate with a 9.9% walk rate, 17.4% strikeout rate, and above-average contact rates, but it's been really encouraging to see his already solid quality of contact metrics take a step forward this season.
After posting an 8% barrel rate, 91.1 mph AVG EV, and 42.8% hard-hit rate in 2023, Marte has improved those to 11%, 93.8 mph, and 53.8%, respectively. All three of those are career-best marks for Marte. This is a surefire Top-50 overall player and might even be the #1 option at second base if Mookie Betts loses eligibility after this season.
Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies
If you had told me back in March that I'd be ranking Brenton Doyle inside my Top 100 in July, I probably would have looked at you funny. But when tangible changes are made, and a player breaks out, their ranking needs to change accordingly. In 419 plate appearances this season, Doyle is slashing .273/.335/.473 with 17 home runs and 21 steals, giving him a shot at a 25/30 season if he continues his current pace. The overall production has been great to see, but it's the improvements under the hood that have me buying into this 2024 version of Doyle.
On top of Doyle improving his quality of contact metrics, Doyle has improved all of his contact and approach metrics by a decent margin this season. As long as these improvements stick moving forward, Doyle should continue to provide Top 100 of better value for fantasy.
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Maybe I'm spoiling the surprise, but you'll see below that I have Garrett Crochet as a Top-5 pitcher now. And when I tweeted this out several days ago, some asked how I could rank Crochet so high already. Well, we're okay with making Paul Skenes the #1 SP but not Crochet being in the top five? I'm not saying Crochet is as good as Skenes, but he was a Top-10 pick himself back in 2020 and has been just as good as Skenes has been since Skenes debuted. In his last 16 starts, Crochet has posted an exceptional 2.13 ERA (1.83 FIP). 0.94 WHIP, 5.3% walk rate, and a 35.6% strikeout rate.
Again, I'm not saying Crochet should be ranked where Skenes is, but everything about Crochet screams Top-5 pitcher.
Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
There hasn't been a better pitcher in baseball over the last two months than Taj Bradley. Yes, he's been even better than Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and whatever other name you want to throw out there. Over his last nine starts, Bradley has posted a stellar 0.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.5% walk rate, and a 30.8% strikeout rate. Opposing batters have only hit .162 off Bradley during this stretch, and he's only allowed one earned run combined in his last five starts.
Taj Bradley, 97mph ⛽️
5th K pic.twitter.com/AKqDx64lBo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 25, 2024
Bradley is generating more ground balls and whiffs this season and has a whiff rate above 30% and a BAA under .160 on his splitter, curveball, and cutter. He's now inside my Top-20 pitcher rankings for Dynasty and is inching closer to the ace discussion.
Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
Updated: July 2024 | The full Top 500, along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
| Rank | Player | Pos. | Team | Age | Previous |
| 1 | Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | KCR | 24.12 | 1 |
| 2 | Juan Soto | OF | NYY | 25.76 | 2 |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | UT/SP | LAA | 30.07 | 3 |
| 4 | Gunnar Henderson | SS | BAL | 23.08 | 6 |
| 5 | Kyle Tucker | OF | HOU | 27.53 | 4 |
| 6 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | OF | ATL | 26.61 | 5 |
| 7 | Elly De La Cruz | SS | CIN | 22.54 | 8 |
| 8 | Aaron Judge | OF | NYY | 32.26 | 11 |
| 9 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | OF | SDP | 25.57 | 9 |
| 10 | Yordan Alvarez | OF | HOU | 27.09 | 12 |
| 11 | Mookie Betts | 2B/SS/OF | LAD | 31.81 | 10 |
| 12 | Bryce Harper | 1B | PHI | 31.78 | 13 |
| 13 | Wyatt Langford | OF | TEX | 22.70 | 15 |
| 14 | Rafael Devers | 3B | BOS | 27.76 | 14 |
| 15 | Jose Ramirez | 3B | CLE | 31.86 | 16 |
| 16 | Paul Skenes | SP | PIT | 22.16 | 25 |
| 17 | Tarik Skubal | SP | DET | 27.69 | 19 |
| 18 | Julio Rodriguez | OF | SEA | 23.58 | 7 |
| 19 | Trea Turner | SS | PHI | 31.08 | 18 |
| 20 | Corey Seager | SS | TEX | 30.26 | 17 |
| 21 | James Wood | OF | WAS | 21.86 | 28 |
| 22 | Corbin Carroll | OF | ARI | 23.93 | 24 |
| 23 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | TOR | 25.37 | 33 |
| 24 | Royce Lewis | 3B | MIN | 25.15 | 21 |
| 25 | Luis Robert Jr. | OF | CHW | 26.98 | 22 |
| 26 | Francisco Lindor | SS | NYM | 30.71 | 30 |
| 27 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | LAD | 34.88 | 26 |
| 28 | Riley Greene | OF | DET | 23.83 | 38 |
| 29 | Jackson Chourio | OF | MIL | 20.38 | 36 |
| 30 | Austin Riley | 3B | ATL | 27.32 | 23 |
| 31 | Jarren Duran | OF | BOS | 27.89 | 80 |
| 32 | Matt Olson | 1B | ATL | 30.34 | 20 |
| 33 | Pete Alonso | 1B | NYM | 29.64 | 29 |
| 34 | CJ Abrams | SS | WAS | 23.81 | 44 |
| 35 | Corbin Burnes | SP | BAL | 29.77 | 27 |
| 36 | Ketel Marte | 2B | ARI | 30.80 | 76 |
| 37 | Coby Mayo | 3B | BAL | 22.63 | 90 |
| 38 | Ozzie Albies | 2B | ATL | 27.55 | 34 |
| 39 | Garrett Crochet | SP | CHW | 24.97 | 55 |
| 40 | Junior Caminero | 3B | TBR | 21.06 | 37 |
| 41 | Jackson Holliday | 2B | BAL | 20.65 | 32 |
| 42 | Jose Altuve | 2B | HOU | 34.23 | 39 |
| 43 | Spencer Strider | SP | ATL | 25.75 | 40 |
| 44 | Tyler Glasnow | SP | LAD | 30.93 | 41 |
| 45 | Triston Casas | 1B | BOS | 24.53 | 42 |
| 46 | Jordan Westburg | 2B/3B | BAL | 25.44 | 45 |
| 47 | George Kirby | SP | SEA | 26.48 | 46 |
| 48 | Gerrit Cole | SP | NYY | 33.89 | 43 |
| 49 | William Contreras | C | MIL | 26.59 | 47 |
| 50 | Cole Ragans | SP | KCR | 26.63 | 66 |
| 51 | Grayson Rodriguez | SP | BAL | 24.70 | 35 |
| 52 | Zack Wheeler | SP | PHI | 34.17 | 49 |
| 53 | Logan Gilbert | SP | SEA | 27.23 | 75 |
| 54 | Michael Harris II | OF | ATL | 23.39 | 31 |
| 55 | Eury Perez | SP | MIA | 21.28 | 51 |
| 56 | Adley Rutschman | C | BAL | 26.47 | 52 |
| 57 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | SP | LAD | 25.94 | 54 |
| 58 | Luis Castillo | SP | SEA | 31.66 | 53 |
| 59 | Jasson Dominguez | OF | NYY | 21.47 | 65 |
| 60 | Aaron Nola | SP | PHI | 31.15 | 60 |
| 61 | Noelvi Marte | 3B | CIN | 22.78 | 81 |
| 62 | Randy Arozarena | OF | SEA | 29.41 | 74 |
| 63 | Zac Gallen | SP | ARI | 28.99 | 58 |
| 64 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OF | NYY | 26.49 | 77 |
| 65 | Taj Bradley | SP | TBR | 23.35 | 185 |
| 66 | Oneil Cruz | SS | PIT | 25.81 | 63 |
| 67 | Jared Jones | SP | PIT | 22.98 | 62 |
| 68 | Christian Yelich | OF | MIL | 32.65 | 50 |
| 69 | Will Smith | C | LAD | 29.34 | 67 |
| 70 | Max Fried | SP | ATL | 30.53 | 73 |
| 71 | Josh Naylor | 1B | CLE | 27.10 | 83 |
| 72 | Pablo Lopez | SP | MIN | 28.39 | 64 |
| 73 | Manny Machado | 3B | SDP | 32.06 | 61 |
| 74 | Freddy Peralta | SP | MIL | 28.15 | 68 |
| 75 | Matt McLain | 2B/SS | CIN | 24.98 | 69 |
| 76 | Mike Trout | OF | LAA | 32.98 | 71 |
| 77 | Cody Bellinger | OF/1B | CHC | 29.05 | 72 |
| 78 | Bryan Reynolds | OF | PIT | 29.50 | 96 |
| 79 | Shane McClanahan | SP | TBR | 27.25 | 89 |
| 80 | Marcus Semien | 2B | TEX | 33.87 | 59 |
| 81 | Tanner Houck | SP | BOS | 28.08 | 95 |
| 82 | Hunter Greene | SP | CIN | 24.98 | 105 |
| 83 | Brenton Doyle | OF | COL | 26.21 | 250 |
| 84 | Logan Webb | SP | SFG | 27.69 | 79 |
| 85 | Anthony Volpe | SS | NYY | 23.25 | 48 |
| 86 | Seiya Suzuki | OF | CHC | 29.95 | 88 |
| 87 | Dylan Cease | SP | SDP | 28.58 | 86 |
| 88 | Charlie Condon | 3B/OF | COL | 21.28 | NR |
| 89 | Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | KCR | 26.80 | 87 |
| 90 | Luis Gil | SP | NYY | 26.15 | 82 |
| 91 | Jackson Merrill | OF | SDP | 21.27 | 126 |
| 92 | Chris Sale | SP | ATL | 35.34 | 137 |
| 93 | Spencer Steer | 1B/OF | CIN | 26.64 | 99 |
| 94 | Joe Ryan | SP | MIN | 28.15 | 101 |
| 95 | Jordan Lawlar | SS | ARI | 22.03 | 78 |
| 96 | Nick Lodolo | SP | CIN | 26.48 | 103 |
| 97 | Adolis Garcia | OF | TEX | 31.41 | 56 |
| 98 | Ezequiel Tovar | SS | COL | 22.99 | 119 |
| 99 | Colt Keith | 2B | DET | 22.95 | 169 |
| 100 | Kevin Gausman | SP | TOR | 33.56 | 98 |
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see the full Top 500, along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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