EPL DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (8/27/22) - English Premier League Soccer Matchweek 4

Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are here for Gameweek 4!!! We get to continue to cherish the return of our beloved Premier League season for yet another year. This year will be filled with new players, new clubs and just as many upsets and superb victories as every year carries. Today’s slate will feature two of the top flight giants, Liverpool -1000 and Manchester City -550. This will cause many managers to side with one club or the other and it will cause diverse ownership among players. This makes this slate a much ‘safer’ ‘cash’ slate than typical. I will guide you through this five-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.

Please Be Advised: This write-up does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.

The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 4

Vegas Odds for the Day

[H] Brentford (+100) vs [A] Everton (+270):  Total: u2.5            

It has become very clear that Everton does not have what it takes to be successful in the top flight and the season just started. The Toffees continue to struggle for goals after striker Richarlison left for Tottenham and their other striker Calvert-Lewin is still hurt. Furthermore, the visitors barely beat League One side Fleetwood days ago 1-0. The hosts are currently averaging 2 goals per game and they have what appears to be a juicy matchup against a bottom-tier Everton.

Expected Outcome: Brentford 2-0

Forwards

Ivan Toney-DK $8.2K || FD $18

Even with the additions in defense for the Toffees, it seems they are still struggling to keep the opposition out, especially physical strikers. Toney is just that and he also possesses much better chances of scoring against a leaky defense versus Solomon Rodon who is expected to start for Everton. Through three appearances, Toney has 2 goals, 2 assists, 2 shots and 3 crosses.

Midfielders

Demarai Gray-DK $6.9K || FD $15

Unfortunately, this matchup does not provide us with a clear-cut option at midfield and it ultimately comes down to the higher upside. Both Gray and his opposition Mathias Jensen-DK $5.4K || FD $14 have a relatively similar floor and both of them take the majority of set-pieces for their respective clubs. However, Brentford is conceding more shots per game than Brentford and Gray is already in a favorable position in the formation for Everton as a winger, versus Jensen who sits in the middle of the pitch. Through three matches, Gray has 1 goal, 9 shots, 17 crosses and 2 tackles.

Defenders

Conor Coady-DK $2.6K || FD $8

Due to the nature of the matchup and a lack of reliable fullbacks, we will dive into the heart of the Everton defense. Aforementioned, Everton is letting the opposition have their space and break the defensive line which will keep Coady busy against Brentford. The center-back is known for his physical play but it remains to be seen since his arrival to Goodison Park. Can he be the one to stop Toney and company?

[H] Brighton & Hove Albion (-115) vs [A] Leeds United (+250):  Total: u2.5                 

Both clubs had statement wins this past weekend with Brighton beating West Ham away 2-0 and Leeds defending home turf with a 3-0 victory over Chelsea. This will be quite the matchup this weekend with two clubs vying for a top-four spot in the early stages of the season and to showcase their explosive form. This could ultimately end up as a trap game for Leeds supporters after their triumphant win against Chelsea though, resulting in a low-scoring affair all around. 

Expected Outcome: 1-1

Forwards

Rodrigo-DK $6.7K || FD $17

With Patrick Bamford most likely out once again with injury, Rodrigo will look to lead the line. The striker has been one of the hottest players in the top flight, if not the hottest play since the season started. He currently has 4 goals, 1 assist and 6 shots in three appearances. This is exactly what Leeds was hoping for when they acquired him two off-seasons ago. Brighton is a much more sound defense than what Chelsea is showcasing as of late and it will make it that much harder for Rodrigo to continue his point streak. However, all of Leeds looks in form right now and Rodrigo should be in consideration as long as his form keeps up.

Midfielders

Pascal Gross-DK $8.8K || FD $16

With the more compact defense that Brighton will throw together, it may make it hard for Leeds midfielders like Jack Harrison-DK $7.3K || FD $16 to be successful, but he is a great pivot if you don’t want to pay that high of a salary for Gross. Nevertheless, Gross is showing great consistency to start the season with 2 goals, 1 assist, 21 crosses, 2 tackles and 1 interception. The two-way midfielder has been a key cog in the Brighton midfield so far this season and he will remain a major player in the matchup against the explosive Leeds offense. 

Defenders

Pascal Struijk-DK $3.2K || FD $13

We may have one of the top plays for defense on the slate right here with Struijk. The fullback is a much more defensive-minded player, but he does possess offensive qualities to support when needed. Brighton runs a pretty offensive heavy formation – 3-5-2 – and he will see plenty of Solly March who is expected to start on the right side, as well as Pascal Gross. Not only is this a good play on DraftKings, but also a terrific play on FanDuel if Struijk can keep up his momentum. In three appearances, the defender has 1 assist, 1 cross, 12 tackles and 6 interceptions.

[H] Chelsea  (-250) vs [A] Leicester City (+625)  Total: o2.5                

It would be fair to side with the hosts in this match, even after they dropped a 3-0 loss at Leeds last weekend. Leicester is having a shocking start to the season and things are not going to improve until their offense gets figured out and they purchase a new goalkeeper. In four appearances in all competitions, Leicester has scored five goals. They most recently squeaked out a win against Stockport County from League Two. A League Two club kept Leicester goalless the entire match. That is a statement in its own describing the status of Leicester’s offense. Chelsea’s defense on the flip side is nothing to scream about, even after the arrival of Koulibaly, but they play a compact formation – 3-5-2 – and will force the ball away from Jamie Vardy. If Chelsea can figure out their offense, they will comfortably win this fixture.

Expected Outcome: Chelsea 2-0 

Forwards

Raheem Sterling-DK $8.4K || FD $18

Due to the salary and inconsistency that the forwards in this matchup bring, it made it rather difficult to pick one, but we will side with the hosts and the home crowd advantage. Sterling has yet to bring his skillset to Chelsea’s dry offense with only 1 assist, 6 shots and 1 cross to be accounted for through three appearances. It shows that Chelsea is missing something that Manchester City had in their lineup. Nevertheless, Sterling will have the best chances of scoring or producing at all when comparing him to the opposition, Jamie Vardy. Leicester City is still counting on Danny Ward to backstop them and as long as he is in the net, Sterling has a shot at scoring.

Midfielders

Youri Tielemans-DK $3.8K || FD $14

This is a major IF, but IF teammate James Maddison-DK $8.3K || FD $17 is ultimately ruled out, Tielemans will take over his spot in the starting XI and be on the majority of set-pieces. Tielemans has been used sparingly to start the season due to many off-season rumors of him transferring. However, the window closes next week and if Maddison cannot play due to his injury in training, Tielemans will be the next man up and the ultimate chalk play.

Defenders

Reece James-DK $7.8K || FD $15

Danny Ward in the net? Check. Chelsea playing an aggressive 3-5-2 formation with Reece James as a wingback? Check. Leicester is playing a fullback that will not be able to handle James’ physicality and speed? Check. James will be a high-owned defender on the slate this weekend depending on how managers ultimately build their lineups. Leicester is giving up goals left, right and center and James loves to join the attack when possible with one goal already this season. He also has 5 shots, 24 crosses, 4 tackles and 4 interceptions through three matches.

[H] Liverpool (-1000) vs [A] Bournemouth (+2800)  Total: o2.5                

If you had Bournemouth ahead of Liverpool after three matches on your bingo card, you just won $1,000,000, because nobody would have expected that before last weekend. Liverpool drew their first two matches against Fulham and Crystal Palace and was most recently defeated by the hands of Manchester United on Monday. The one positive about all of this is that Liverpool has won the last six meetings against Bournemouth and in that time, Bournemouth only scored once. That means Liverpool has outscored Bournemouth 19-1 in that timeframe! This is the perfect opportunity for the Reds to rebound, despite the ongoing injuries.

Expected Outcome: Liverpool 3-0

Forwards

Mohamed Salah-DK $10.2K || FD $23

Salah will either drive a lot of managers crazy this weekend or bring them to glory. The Reds are missing a few key players in their starting XI and Salah is one of the last remaining that can damage a defense. The winger is thankfully dual-eligibility on DraftKings still and he will be fed the ball a lot in this meeting with Bournemouth. As I mentioned in the matchup preview, Liverpool has outscored Bournemouth tenfold in their six meetings. If they do it again here, Salah will be at the center of the action. In three appearances, he has 2 goals, 8 shots and 5 crosses.

Midfielders

Marcus Tavernier-DK $3.9K || FD $13

This is a no-brainer it seems. Liverpool midfielders have too high a salary with little to no production through three appearances and Tavernier is the majority set-piece taker for the Cherries. Liverpool has shown so far this season that their defense is not necessarily unpenetrable as many thought and this provides the perfect opportunity at a low cost. In three matches, Tavernier has 2 shots, 13 crosses and 1 tackle.

Defenders

Trent Alexander-Arnold-DK $8K || FD $15

Alexander-Arnold is back for more fun! The attacking fullback will undoubtedly give managers fits when trying to fit him and others from Liverpool and Manchester City this weekend due to his high salary. Nevertheless, he is worth the high cost thanks to his safe floor and large role on set-pieces and within the attack for Liverpool. In three appearances, he has 5 shots, 30 crosses, 5 tackles and 2 interceptions.

[H] Manchester City (-550) vs [A] Crystal Palace (+1150)  Total: o2.5                

After outscoring opponents 6-0 through the first two matches of the season, Manchester City has conceded six goals over their last two matches in all competitions, once to Newcastle away and another against Barcelona in a friendly. It seems that some of the giants of the league – City, Liverpool, Chelsea –  are conceding many goals to start the season and City may not have an easy challenge ahead of them when they welcome Palace to the Etihad either. Palace started the season by holding a newly formed Arsenal offense to a 2-0 win and then proceeded to draw with Liverpool 1-1. Most recently they defeated Aston Villa 3-1 and Oxford United 2-0 away. The Eagles are showing incredible form to start the new season and they may prove a formidable foe when they travel to the Etihad this weekend. Can Haaland extend his goal streak and lead City to victory, or will Palace stimy them?

Expected Outcome: Manchester City 2-0

Forwards

Erling Haaland-DK $9.7K || FD $23

Haaland continues to not disappoint since his arrival at the Etihad. The young striker now has 3 goals in his first three competitive appearances for Manchester City. He also has 11 shots to go with it. That is a relatively solid floor for a striker who is mostly goal-dependent, especially in the given formation that the club runs. Crystal Palace is playing much better defensively, however, Haaland has proven that he can score against any club. 

Midfielders

Kevin De Bruyne-DK $10K || FD $22

De Bruyne is very hard to pass up on this slate with other giants like Liverpool playing too. The Belgium midfielder is the definition of consistency and that is what we need, especially when playing a ‘cash-centric’ lineup. De Bryune is not only the face of the transition, but he also carries the bulk of the offense with 1 goal and 3 assists through three matches. He also has 4 shots, 23 crosses and 1 tackle. Just his floor alone is worth paying up to his salary and all of the production comes as a bonus.

Defenders

Joachim Anderson-DK $2.8K || FD $14

We are going to look to Palace for defense in this meeting and take advantage of FanDuel’s defensive scoring model. Anderson has been the heart of the Palace defense so far this season with 1 shot, 1 cross, 1 tackle and 5 interceptions. He will be fairly active in this matchup thanks to Manchester City’s high-octane offense. This will give Anderson plenty of chances to tally peripherals and it will also give managers a cost-effective defender to help pay up elsewhere.

Goalies

Ederson-DK $5.9K || FD $14

Despite Ederson and Manchester City’s flaws last weekend, we will go back to him here. Before the 3 goals against in the Newcastle meeting, Ederson had back-to-back shutouts and was the top keeper in the league through two gameweeks. He now has a chance to bounce back against a Crystal Palace side who are finding form, but still not scoring nearly as many goals as they should be. Their shot-taking is still suspect at times, especially if Eduoard starts at striker again for the Eagles. Luckily, Alisson is also playing, which could take away some ownership from Ederson, making him even more appealing.

Alisson-DK $5.8K || FD $15

Nobody truly knows what is happening with the Reds’ defense right now and more so Alisson. He has let in a few questionable goals so far this season and he also has yet to win a match through three appearances. In that time he has conceded a combined 5 goals against Fulham, Crystal Palace and Manchester United. If there was a time for a bounceback and to finally tally his first win of the season, it is here. He will also see less ownership than typical because of his form and due to Ederson also playing.

Expected Corner Takers:

Everton: Gray/McNeil

Brentford: Jensen

Leeds United: Harrison/Aaronson

Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross

Leicester City: Maddison

Chelsea: Mount/James

Bournemouth: Tavernier

Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold/Robertson

Crystal Palace: Eze

Manchester City: De Bruyne

Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!