RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”!! The 2023-2024 season has come and gone and we are officially at our second to last week of the season.
The top favorite for this week is Tottenham -320 vs Burnley FC +600. I will guide you through this six-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EDT.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via X @df_solutions, or in our Discord chat rooms.
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EPL DFS Goalies
Wes Foderingham - DK $3.6K || FD $6
Opponent - Everton
Value at the goalie position is always key, especially in ‘GPP’ formats and Wes Foderingham of Sheffield United fits the bill for this matchweek. Throughout his last five domestic starts, he has 24 saves, 18 conceded goals, and zero clean sheets. Yes, the stats are highly concerning. However, his opponent is just as bad. Over the season, Everton is the tenth-worst club in Shots For Per 90 and the second-worst in Goals For Per 90. This sets up Foderingham for a moderate floor performance with the possibility of a ceiling game if he and Sheffield United can limit Everton’s In-the-Box Chances.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dubravka (DK $5.6K || FD $13), Flekken (DK $4.3K || FD $9)
EPL DFS Forwards
Dwight McNeil - DK $10K || FD $20
Opponent - Sheffield United
Now we can play with more confidence less nerves @dwightmcneil to @CalvertLewin14 tonight 👊pic.twitter.com/2UY0HVzKis
— TOFFEE BLUECAST (@TOFFEEBLUECAST) May 3, 2024
Dwight McNeil is our ‘go-to’ ‘CASH’ forward for this slate thanks to his monopoly of set pieces. However, he requires a premium to afford him due to the fixture. Sheffield United is arguably the worst defensive club in the top flight this season and that gets backed up by the measly 16 points they have mustered up all year.
The visitors are the worst in all metrics besides Goals Against Per 90 and Big Chances Created Against Per 90, where they are the fourth-worst. Whether McNeil can produce points in this fixture remains to be seen, however, his floor will be very manageable, setting him up as an optimal ‘CASH’ selection. In his most recent five domestic fixtures, he has one goal, one assist, 10 shots, 15 created chances, 39 crosses, 24 corners, eight tackles, three interceptions, and six clearances.
Jarrod Bowen - DK $9.2K || FD $19
Opponent - Luton Town FC
Jarrod Bowen is the ‘high-ceiling’ performance chase of the weekend. The winger leads all of West Ham United in almost every meaningful offensive metric and the most impressive of the bunch is his In-the-Box Shots. When examining at a full season view and not a Per 90 view, Bowen has 62 In-the-Box Shots this season. The next best is West Ham’s defensive midfielder, Tomas Soucek, with 38 In-the-Box Shots. That shows just how vital Bowen is to West Ham’s attack.
Over his last five domestic matches, he has one goal, three assists, 13 shots, six created chances, 18 crosses, nine corners, five tackles and two interceptions. His peripherals are not as steady as they once were with the resurgence of teammate, James Ward-Prowse, however, they are still worthy of consideration. While many will be attacking other matchups like the aforementioned Everton matchup, Bowen and the Hammers offer the perfect pivot.
Luton Town in Per 90 stats, is the worst in Big Chances Created Against, the second-worst in both In-the-Box Shots Against and In-the-Box Goals Against, the third-worst in Shots Against and the fourth-worst in Created Chances Against, but they are in the top ten in Goals Against. If Bowen and company can break down Luton Town’s backline and Thomas Kaminsky early, Bowen could be in for a massive performance.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Eze (DK $8.5K || FD $19), Richarlison (DK $7.6K || FD $19)
EPL DFS Midfielders
Michael Olise - DK $9.7K || FD $21
Opponent - Wolverhampton
MICHAEL OLISE ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?! 🤯
He drops Casemiro and carves through Man Utd to give @CPFC the lead!
📹: @NBCSportsSoccer | #CRYMUN pic.twitter.com/EBYj6N5UWX
— Premier League USA (@PLinUSA) May 6, 2024
Unless the aforementioned Dwight McNeil is slotted into a midfielder spot in the lineup, Michael Olise is the top midfielder on the slate. In his last five domestic fixtures – four starts – he has three goals, one assist, 18 shots, nine created chances, 13 crosses, seven corners, three tackles, four interceptions, and one clearance. Keep in mind that Olise is coming off a brace at home against Manchester United. Now he and the Eagles travel to the Molineux. The Wolves over the season are the worst in Goals Against Per 90 and they are a bottom-ten club in every other meaningful defensive metric. The only thing to consider when selecting Olise is that teammate and midfielder Eberechi Eze continues to split set pieces, limiting Olise’s floor.
Lewis Cook - DK $4.8K || FD $14
Opponent - Brentford FC
When searching for value set piece takers, it is far and few between with Lewis Cook the most optimal choice. The midfielder has five created chances, 21 crosses, 20 corners, nine tackles, 12 interceptions, ten clearances, and four blocks in his last five outings. This is not the most ideal production. However, for his salary, it can make lineups work. Brentford is a middle-of-the-top-flight club when it comes to defense. Although, they concede the second-most Crosses Per 90 on the slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Maddison (DK $8.7K || FD $16), Kudus (DK $8.1K || FD $16)
EPL DFS Defenders
Pedro Porro - DK $6.7K || FD $15
Opponent - Burnley FC
When playing ‘CASH’ contests there is a defender who immediately sticks out amongst the rest: Pedro Porro. Porro shares set pieces with teammate and midfielder James Maddison and in the former’s most recent five domestic fixtures, he has one goal, six shots, five created chances, 27 crosses, 16 corners, nine tackles, four interceptions, nine clearances, and two blocks. Burnley is not terrible when defending crosses, however, they are the fourth-worst club in both In-the-Box Shots Against Per 90 and In-the-Box Goals Against Per 90. All it takes is one cross to connect and Porro instantly makes value.
Rayan Ait-Nouri - DK $4.5K || FD $9
Opponent - Crystal Palace
With no Pablo Sarabia and no Pedro Neto, Rayan Ait-Nouri will be relied on to take the majority of set pieces for Wolverhampton. With the fullback already playing in a cross-friendly formation – 3-5-2 – he is set up for a strong floor and potential ceiling game at home against Crystal Palace. On the slate, the Eagles are the fourth-worst at defending the cross. As long as Ait-Nouri can push forward, he is expected to exceed value. In his last five domestic appearances – four starts – he has four shots, two created chances, seven crosses, two corners, 13 tackles, three interceptions, and two clearances.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Munoz (DK $4.7K || FD $14), Coufal (DK $4.4K || FD $11)
Corner Takers
- AFC Bournemouth: Cook/Christie
- Brentford FC: Mbeumo/Jensen
- Everton: McNeil
- Sheffield United: Hamer
- Newcastle United: Murphy/Gordon
- Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross
- Tottenham Hotspur: Maddison/Porro
- Burnley FC: Brun Larsen
- West Ham United: Ward-Prowse/Bowen
- Luton Town FC: Doughty
- Wolverhampton: Ait-Nouri/Gomes
- Crystal Palace: Olise/Eze
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off. Good luck in all of your contests today!
