EPL DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (4/8/23) - English Premier League Soccer Matchweek 30

Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! As the season dwindles down, many clubs will be focused on any trophies left at stake, Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, etc and it will cause squad rotation and or rest. The Starting XI will remain fluid for those specific clubs, while others may try new formations as their league positions cement for next season.

The top two favorites this weekend are Aston Villa -160 vs Nottingham Forest and Leicester -105 vs AFC Bournemouth. I will guide you through this six-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.

The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 30

Vegas Odds for the Day

Goalies

Bernd Leno- DK $4.7K || FD $10

Opponent - West Ham United

With such a large slate, it is more than okay to be a little different in certain positions, especially in ‘CASH’ contests. A majority of the field this weekend will be on Emiliano Martinez due to his superb matchup against the hapless Garibaldi, who have mustered just 3 goals in their last 5 away matches and 5 goals total in all away matches this season in domestic play. However, we will save some salary with Leno who is in another good spot to produce. Both Fulham and West Ham have struggled to score goals, however, Fulham is at home. The Hammers are tied with Nottingham Forest for the least amount of goals on the slate in their last five away games – 3 –. For approximately $1K less salary on DraftKings and the same possible upside, this is a great value play. In Leno’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 1 win, 19 saves and 9 Goals Against.                          

Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Martinez (DK $5.7K || FD $13), Arrizabalaga (DK $5.3K || FD $13)

Forwards

Ollie Watkins-DK $8.9K || FD $23

Opponent - Nottingham Forest

Watkins will undoubtedly be one of the highest-owned players on the slate in all contests this weekend. Not only is Nottingham Forest awful at scoring goals when playing away, but they are just as bad at defending too. In their last five away matches, they have conceded 12 Goals Against and over the season when away that number climbs to a league-high 34 Goals Against. Over the season, Nottingham Forest is the fourth-worst club in both Shots Against Per 90 – 14.44 – and Created Chances Per 90 – 11.37 – and they are the second-worst in both Crosses Against Per 90 – 21.62 – and Goals Against Per 90 – 1.79 –. Watkins is one of the most in-form strikers in the league over the last month and in his most recent five fixtures in domestic play, he has 3 goals, 14 shots, 3 created chances, 2 tackles and 8 clearances. It would not be unexpected for him to extend his goal streak to three games.            

Patson Daka- DK $6.2K || FD $16

Opponent - AFC Bournemouth

It looks like Jamie Vardy may find a spot back on the bench this weekend, conceding his starting spot to Patson Daka. Daka has yet to be a consistent producer for the Foxes and over his last five appearances – 3 starts – in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 5 shots, 2 created chances and 1 tackle. Depending on your roster build or value estimator, one could say that Daka’s salary may be a little too rich for their blood, however, his matchup is more than enticing. In Bournemouth’s last five away fixtures, they are being outscored 3 to 9 and over the season that becomes 12 to 38 when away. Throughout the season, Bournemouth is the worst club in Shots Against Per 90 – 16.65 –, Crosses Against Per 90 – 25.03 –, Chances Created Per 90 – 12.31 – and Goals Against Per 90 – 1.86 –. Daka only needs one goal to maintain value and his chances of doing that here are relatively high.                                 

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Isak (DK $8.8K || FD $20), Vinicius (DK $4.5K || FD $15)

Midfielders

James Maddison- DK $9K || FD $22

Opponent - AFC Bournemouth

Welcome the second highest-owned player on the slate, Foxes’ superstar, James Maddison. Maddison had to be subbed off late in the game due to a toe injury during Tuesday’s 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. However, all signs expect him to be healthy for the home matchup against the Cherries this weekend. In Maddison’s last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 assist, 9 shots, 13 created chances, 25 crosses, 14 corners, 7 tackles and 3 interceptions. Bournemouth’s putrid defense has been aforementioned in Daka’s highlight and depending on where Maddison slots in the formation this weekend will ultimately depict what areas he will succeed in. If he slots out wide, he will be crossing plenty and if he stays inside as a midfielder, he will see his fair share of shooting opportunities.                           

Andreas Pereira- DK $7K || FD $15

Opponent - West Ham United

Depending on salary after the above mentions and other players one might have in their pocket, the next midfielder to target would be either Fulham’s Andreas Pereira or Tottenham’s Ivan Perisic. However, we will stick with Pereira who has a much safer floor and a pretty reasonable ceiling with star and teammate Aleksandar Mitrovic out due to suspension. In Pereira’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 15 shots, 6 created chances, 21 crosses, 13 corners and 2 tackles. Mitrovic is normally the spearhead of Fulham’s attack, however with him out, Pereira has been pushing further up the pitch. In West Ham’s last five away fixtures, they have been outscored 3 to 10.                                   

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Perisic (DK $6.5K || FD $11), Buendia (DK $5.4K || FD $15)

Defense

Kieran Trippier- DK $8.5K || FD $16

Opponent - Brentford FC

Newcastle’s starting XI this weekend looks rather suspect at best with few playmakers to support striker Alexander Isak. If this remains the lineup after kickoff, Trippier will be a key player for the Magpies in their trip to Brentford. Trippier is known for his offensive prowess, however, if Newcastle struggles early to produce, it is safe to expect Trippier to sit higher up the pitch. Over his last five matches in domestic play, he has 2 assists, 4 shots, 10 created chances, 52 crosses, 30 corners, 7 tackles, 9 interceptions and 16 clearances. Those are incredible peripherals and the exact reason why his salary is so high. In a fast-paced matchup with Brentford, it would not be out of the question for Trippier to exceed value.                    

Ben Chilwell- DK $6.7K || FD $13

Opponent - Wolverhampton

Chelsea did very little in their first match in the post-Potter era in a 0-0 draw with Liverpool on Tuesday. In that game, Chillwell was practically invisible in 78 minutes of play, however, it is safe to classify this performance as an outlier to his typical production. In his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 8 shots, 14 created chances, 43 crosses, 31 corners, 4 tackles, 5 interceptions and 2 clearances. Wolves do a good job defensively for the most part, although, they are the fifth-worst club in Crosses Against Per 90 over the season – 19.34 –. Until the conglomerate of coaches from Chelsea changes tactics and formation, Chilwell will remain an integral part of this club.             

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Robinson (DK $4.6K || FD $11), Castagne (DK $4K || FD $12)

Corner Takers:

Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White

Aston Villa: Luiz/McGinn

Newcastle United: Trippier

Brentford: Jensen/Mbuemo

West Ham United: Bowen/Rice

Fulham: Pereira

AFC Bournemouth: Tavernier/Billing

Leicester City: Maddison

Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March

Tottenham: Perisic/Son

Chelsea: Chilwell/James

Wolverhampton: Moutinho/Neto

Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!