EPL DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (4/26/23) - English Premier League Soccer Matchweek 33

Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! As the season dwindles down, many clubs will be focused on any trophies left at stake, Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, etc and it will cause squad rotation and or rest. The Starting XI will remain fluid for those specific clubs, while others may try new formations as their league positions cement for next season.

The top two favorites this midweek are Brighton -185 at Nottingham Forest +490 and Manchester City -185 vs Arsenal +460. I will guide you through this four-match slate starting at 2:30 P.M. EST.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.

The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 33

Vegas Odds for the Day

Goalies

David Raya - DK $4.1K || FD $9

Opponent - Chelsea

With two potential team stacks two allocate salary to on midweek slate #2 and a decent matchup against Chelsea, we will look at inexpensive goalkeeper David Raya. Brentford has been struggling recently, scoring just 2 goals in their last four matches. However, Raya has been quite active in that time, making 24 saves and conceding just 9 goals. Chelsea has been improving since Lampard came back to the club, although, they are still quite a bit away from blowing teams out of the water, especially a club like the Hornets who like to grind the game out. Brentford will aim to keep Chelsea at the perimeter of the 18-yard box, making saves much easier to make for Raya. The goalkeeper has slate-breaking potential if the stars align.                              

Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Sanchez (DK $5.7K || FD $13), Ramsdale (DK $3.3K || FD $8)

Forwards

Deniz Undav - DK $6.4K || FD $17

Opponent - Nottingham Forest

There is a chance that Undav manages to get just his third start of the season at midweek due to teammate Evan Ferguson being out with an injury and teammate Julian Enciso playing at the weekend. If that is the case, Undav will be a boom-or-bust option at striker due to his poor performances thus far in his life in the Premier League. Luckily for him though, he does get Nottingham Forest to play against – outscored 5 to 8 in the last five home fixtures –. Forest is the fourth-worst club in Shots Against Per 90 – 14.59 – and the third-worst in both Created Chances Against Per 90 – 11.81 – and Goals Against Per 90 – 1.84 –.There is no better time than now for Undav to open his goal account in the top flight.             

Mohamed Salah - DK $9.3K || FD $21

Opponent - West Ham

After Cody Gakpo blundered any chance against Nottingham Forest at the weekend, we will take a look at his teammate Salah instead. Salah is much more expensive than Gakpo and for good reason. The winger offers open-play value with crosses, unlike Gakpo who only has a shot floor if he sees one. This provides Salah with a ‘safer’ floor and much higher ceiling potential. In his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 5 goals, 18 shots, 5 created chances, 4 crosses, 1 tackle and 1 interception. West Ham is another team struggling in the Premier League right now and after Salah was the only productive player in the close win to Nottingham Forest, he is expected to be the main man here too.                                 

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Haaland (DK $8.6K || FD $24), Mbeumo (DK $7.3K || FD $14)

Midfielders

Riyad Mahrez - DK $7.8K || FD $16

Opponent - Arsenal

Despite this match being extremely important in the title race for both Manchester City and Arsenal, it would be very surprising to see Kevin de Bruyne start. This leaves us with Riyad Mahrez who has sat out 2 of the last 3 fixtures for City and he takes the second-most set-pieces. Mahrez has been a supplementary piece to the main Starting XI this season for Pep Guardiola, coming on as either a sub or resting to start a few matches later when fixture congestion happens. In his last five appearances in domestic play – 4 starts –, he has 1 assist, 9 shots, 10 created chances, 20 crosses, 14 corners, 4 tackles and 1 interception. Since Arsenal defender William Saliba got injured, Arsenal has been a much more volatile defense and in a matchup against a creative winger like Mahrez, the game could get out of hand quickly.                             

Solly March - DK $9.1K || FD $22

Opponent - Nottingham Forest

Another play to add to the Brighton team stack, Solly March is playing out of his mind. The winger has not scored less than double-digit points on DraftKings in a given match since January. Throughout his last five fixtures in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 3 assists, 13 shots, 19 created chances, 28 crosses, 18 corners, 7 tackles and 3 interceptions. Nottingham Forest is the second-worst club in Crosses Against Per 90 – 21.59 – alongside the rest of the important metrics they are awful at. This sets up March to potentially be one of the highest-scoring midfielders on the slate.                                      

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Saka (DK $8.7K || FD $20), Gibbs-White (DK $7K || FD $15)

Defense

Trent Alexander-Arnold - DK $6.2K || FD $14

Opponent - West Ham 

Alexander-Arnold had yet another great performance after being highlighted at the weekend for his uptick in form. The fullback had 1 assist, 4 created chances, 11 crosses, 4 corners, 1 tackle and 1 interception. Dating it back further to his last five appearances in domestic play and he has 4 assists, 2 shots, 12 created chances, 31 crosses, 11 corners, 13 tackles, 9 interceptions and 7 clearances. West Ham is the middle ground in virtually all meaningful statistics, however, Liverpool will look to press early on and expect Alexander-Arnold to be a big part of it.                      

Ben Chilwell - DK $6.1K || FD $12

Opponent - Brentford

Chilwell is the next fullback worth highlighting due to his role on set-pieces for Chelsea. The one note though, is that Chelsea has moved to a 4-3-3 formation, killing a lot of Chilwell’s potential as a wingback in the 3-4-3 they used to play. With Chilwell playing further back, fantasy managers are relying on more of his defensive peripherals, when he is known for his offensive work. He is still worthy of picking up, however, his dramatic fall in fantasy production is sure to be considered. Over his last five fixtures in domestic play, he has 7 shots, 11 created chances, 34 crosses, 23 corners, 6 tackles, 5 interceptions and 3 clearances.                

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Estupinan (DK $5.1K || FD $12), Zinchenko (DK $3.7K || FD $10)

Corner Takers:

Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White

Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March

West Ham: Bowen/Rice

Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold/Robertson

Chelsea: Chilwell

Brentford: Jensen/Mbeumo

Manchester City: Mahrez

Arsenal: Saka/Martinelli

Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!