Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! As the season dwindles down, many clubs will be focused on any trophies left at stake, Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, etc and it will cause squad rotation and or rest. The Starting XI will remain fluid for those specific clubs, while others may try new formations as their league positions cement for next season.
The top two favorites this weekend are Liverpool -600 vs Nottingham Forest +1500 and Crystal Palace +110 vs Everton +280. I will guide you through this four-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 32
Goalies
Sam Johnstone- DK $5.2K || FD $12
Opponent - Everton
Outside of Alisson, there are not many quality keepers who are viable this weekend. That leaves us with Sam Johnstone who has had quite a number of ups and downs in his career. However, with teammate Vince Guaita still out, Johnstone has taken over starting duties for the Eagles. In two starts in domestic play, he has 2 wins, 11 saves and 1 goal against and he has double-digit DraftKings points in both matches. Everton is currently the third-worst club in Goals For Per 90 – 0.77 – and in their last five away fixtures, they are being outscored 4 to 12. This sets up an ideal opportunity for Johnstone to keep his perfect record alive.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Alisson (DK $5.9K || FD $14), Iversen (DK $4.9K || FD $11)
Forwards
Cody Gakpo - DK $9.9K || FD $21
Opponent - Nottingham Forest
Unsurprisingly, Gakpo is one of the most expensive forward-eligible players on the slate. The Liverpool striker has not had the exact start many Reds fans hoped for after his move from PSV of the Eredivisie. However, no time is better than the present to start producing tenfold. In his last five appearances in domestic play – 4 starts –, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 6 shots, 8 created chances, 7 crosses, 3 corners, 6 tackles and 2 interceptions. For those of you that have been here since the beginning of the season, you know by now that Nottingham Forest has been by far the worst defense in the league and they become exponentially worst when they play away. In their last five away matches, they are being outscored 2 to 13 and in Liverpool’s last five home matches, they are the complete opposite, outscoring their opponents 13 to 2. If you want to even have a chance at winning a contest, whether ‘CASH’ or ‘GPP’ this weekend, it is imperative you Gakpo at the very minimum.
Bryan Mbeumo - DK $7.7K || FD $15
Opponent - Aston Villa
Outside of Liverpool, there are barely any ‘viable’ options left at the striker position on the slate this weekend. Bryan Mbeumo may be the next best option due to his crossing and open-play abilities. In his last five fixtures in domestic play, he has 2 assists, 6 shots, 6 created chances, 24 crosses, 6 corners, 2 tackles and 2 interceptions. Aston Villa has picked up form lately in part to Ollie Watkins starting to score in waves. Whether Mbeumo is able to get on the score sheet or not, his peripherals alone are worth considering.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Salah (DK $11.9K || FD $23), Iheanacho (DK $6.9K || FD $17)
Midfielders
James Maddison - DK $8.1K || FD $19
Opponent - Wolverhampton
We are blessed with Maddison at a very manageable salary this weekend. The midfielder as many know is the heartbeat of the Foxes and he is in sole charge of set-pieces. In his most recent five fixtures in domestic play, he has 1 assist, 9 shots, 10 created chances, 22 crosses, 13 corners and 7 tackles. Wolverhampton is a stronghold despite what the statistics say. However, they are much worse when playing away – outscored 11 to 23 over the season when away –. Leicester should be able to control the match, playing at home this weekend and it will be Maddison making the calls on the ball.
Michael Olise - DK $9.6K || FD $16
Opponent - Everton
Despite things not entirely working out last week when we chose Olise over Eze, we will go right back to the well here. Olise got very unlucky to not get on the score sheet last weekend and he has an arguably better matchup this weekend. Everton is the second-worst club in both Shots Against Per 90 – 15.54 – and Chances Created Against Per 90 – 11.9 –, the fourth-worst in Crosses Against Per 90 – 19.8 – and the sixth-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.48 –. This bodes well for Olise who plays on the right-flank and has strong open-play ability on and off the ball. It may be hard to fit him alongside a Liverpool stack, however, he is a strong candidate to make ‘CASH’ lineups this weekend. Throughout his last five matches in domestic play, he has 3 assists, 12 shots, 11 created chances, 30 crosses, 21 corners, 10 tackles and 9 interceptions.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Luiz (DK $6.2K || FD $14), Sarabia (DK $5.6K || FD $11)
Defense
Trent Alexander-Arnold - DK $7.9K || FD $13
Opponent - Nottingham Forest
Alexander-Arnold may finally be getting into form after faltering all season thus far. The wingback who is known for his offensive contributions has done very little to provide on either end, especially defensively. Nevertheless, he is finally getting onto the score sheet with 3 assists, 2 shots, 11 created chances, 31 crosses, 12 corners, 15 tackles, 7 interceptions and 7 clearances in his last five matches in domestic play. Nottingham Forest is the second-worst in Crosses Against Per 90 – 21.38 – and the third-worst in Chances Created Against Per 90 – 11.35 –. For ‘CASH’ contest, Alexander-Arnold is well worth consideration in terms of floor play.
Luke Thomas- DK $3.1K || FD $8
Opponent - Wolverhampton
If the predicted formation and Starting XI holds true for Leicester City, Luke Thomas will undoubtedly be one of the highest-owned players in the majority of contests this weekend. Not only is he the cheapest fullback out of all of the expected Starting XIs, but Leicester is also looking like they will play a 3-4-2-1 with both Luke Thomas and Timothy Castagne playing at the wings. As mentioned prior, Wolverhampton is not an easy defense to crack, but for $3.1K on DraftKings and a possible ceiling game, Thomas will be hard to pass on.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ward (DK $3.7K || FD $9), Hickey (DK $3.5K || FD $8)
Corner Takers:
Aston Villa: Luiz/McGinn
Brentford: Jensen/Mbeumo
Everton: McNeil/Gray
Crystal Palace: Olise/Eze
Wolverhampton: Sarabia
Leicester City: Maddison
Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White
Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold/Robertson
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!