EPL DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (3/18/23) - English Premier League Soccer Matchweek 28

Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! The Winter Transfer Window has come and gone and some clubs have made massive changes, while others are looking at the Summer to make moves. The Starting XI will be fluid for a few gameweeks as clubs get used to their new players and it is imperative that you watch closely for last-minute scratches prior to kick off

The top two favorites this weekend are Aston Villa -140 vs AFC Bournemouth and Tottenham -130 at Southampton. I will guide you through this four-match slate starting at 11:00 A.M. EST.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.

The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 28

Vegas Odds for the Day

Goalies

Jose Sa- DK $5K || FD $11

Opponent - Leeds United

Leeds United is the furthest thing from a consistent and successful offense. Add in that they are playing away and have only scored three goals in their last five away matches and this is a recipe for success. Over the season, Wolverhampton is not doing the best, however, in their last five home matches, they have conceded just two goals. Furthermore, in Sa’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 1 win, 6 conceded goals and 20 saves. The cheapest home keeper with a chance of winning, averaging 4 saves per game in their last five appearances is a ‘no-brainer’.                        

Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Martinez (DK $5.6K || FD $12), Raya (DK $5.2K || FD $10)

Forwards

Bryan Mbeumo-DK $8.9K || FD $15

Opponent - Leicester City

Brentford is the furthest thing from a chance-creating club, however, their opponents love to provide chances to score. Brentford is the third-worst club in terms of Chances Created Per 90 – 7.19, however, they are the sixth-best club in Goals For Per 90 – 1.61. Leicester City is in the middle of the pack in both Shots Against Per 90 and Crosses Against Per 90 and they are the third-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.61. Over Mbeumo’s last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 6 shots, 9 chances created, 22 crosses, 9 corners, 4 tackles, and 2 clearances. In ‘CASH’ game contests, Mbeumo is the perfect option in a prime matchup because of his share in set-pieces for Brentford, providing a floor. If you want a more direct striker option, teammate Ivan Toney is an option.                          

Ollie Watkins- DK $9.1K || FD $19

Opponent - AFC Bournemouth

Despite Bournemouth's offensive additions in the Winter Transfer Window, they are still the second-worst defense in the league and Ollie Watkins is the most in-form player on the slate. Bournemouth is the worst in Shots Against Per 90 – 16.8, Crosses Against Per 90 – 26.2, Chances Created Against Per 90 –  12.2, and they are the second-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.84. Through the striker's last five appearances in domestic play, he has 4 goals, 11 shots, 5 created chances, 2 crosses, 4 tackles, and 7 clearances. Against one of the worst defenses in the league who has conceded 9 goals in their last five away matches, this is the perfect spot for Watkins to add to his goal tally.                         

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kane (DK $10.3K || FD $23K), Jimenez (DK $6.4K || FD $15)

Midfielders

Pedro Neto- DK $5K || FD $12

Opponent - Leeds United

Leeds is the second-worst club on the slate this weekend, being outscored 3 to 7 in their last five away matches. However, Wolverhampton has not been anything to write home about, outscoring their opponents 5 to 2 in their last five home matches. Nevertheless, there are plenty of big guns to pay up for on the slate and we need a spot to pay down. That is where Neto comes into play. The midfielder is expected to slot in at left wing in the meeting with Leeds and he has shared set-pieces lately with teammate Joao Moutinho. Neto is coming off a nasty ankle injury that has kept him off the pitch for the majority of the season and in his last five appearances in domestic play – 4 starts, he has 3 shots, 3 created chances, 15 crosses, 9 corners, 5 tackles, and 1 interception. Leeds remains in the middle of the table in Shots Against Per 90, Crosses Against Per 90, and Chances Created Against Per 90, however, their goaltending continues to let them down, with the club the fourth-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.53. It is expected that Neto will see a handful of chances at a minimum.                          

Son Heung-Min- DK $9.4K || FD $21

Opponent - Southampton

The salary and the fact that Tottenham is playing away may scare many off Son this weekend. However, the striker is currently in charge of set-pieces unless teammate Ivan Perisic makes the starting XI again – they will share. Southampton is struggling regardless of where they play – outscored 3 to 6 in the last five home matches – and Son and Kane seem to finally be clicking once more. Over Son’s last five fixtures in domestic play, he has 2 goals, 10 shots, 12 created chances, 19 crosses, 10 corners, and 1 tackle. Despite there being other options, such as James Maddison of Leicester City, Son holds the highest potential ceiling out of all set-piece takers on the slate. He will be plenty busy in this matchup.                                 

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Maddison (DK $9.6K || FD $20), Luiz (DK $5.7K || FD $13)

Defense

Pedro Porro- DK $5.6K || FD $11

Opponent - Southampton

Porro has been given the chance to make a bid for the starting spot at left-wing-back lately, averaging 61 minutes in his four appearances in domestic play. In that span – 3 starts, he has 1 assist, 6 shots, 7 created chances, 18 crosses, 3 corners, 2 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 5 clearances. The defender is finally showcasing what he did so well playing for Sporting of the Primeira Liga. As aforementioned, Southampton has scored just three goals in their last five home matches, providing a strong chance at a clean sheet for Porro this weekend.                    

Jonny- DK $3.8K || FD $8

Opponent - Leeds United

If there is one ‘lock’ play on the slate, it is wingback Jonny of Wolverhampton. Throughout his last five appearances in domestic play – 2 starts, he has 1 created chance, 1 cross, 5 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 6 clearances. His peripherals are not the strongest, but that is more than fine playing against Leeds United. The visitors just got done conceding a goal to Everton fullback Seamus Coleman only a few matchweeks ago and he plays a similar style to Jonny. Furthermore, Leeds has scored only three goals in their last five away fixtures. For under $4K salary on DraftKings, Jonny should garner a mass following here.                  

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Cash (DK $5K || FD $9), Koch (DK $2.8K || FD $10)

Corner Takers:

Aston Villa: Luiz/Bailey

AFC Bournemouth: Traore/Anthony

Brentford: Jensen/Mbuemo

Leicester City: Maddison

Southampton: Ward-Prowse

Tottenham: Son/Porro

Wolverhampton: Moutinho/Neto

Leeds United: Harrison/Roca

Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!