EPL DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (1/21/23) - English Premier League Soccer Matchweek 21

Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! This will be the hardest slate to predict since the turn of the calendar with virtually every match either a pickem or as close to a pickem as you can get.

The goal will be to focus on the underperforming defenses and build from there. I will guide you through this four-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.

The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 21

Vegas Odds for the Day

Lukas Fabianksi- DK $5.4K || FD $12

Opponent - Everton

There are not many ‘good’ options on the slate at keeper this weekend, but Fabianski meets the criteria needed – playing at home and favorite –. After starting the season in good form, Fabianski has fallen off in a big way and he has conceded 10 goals over his last five games. Luckily, Everton is at the bottom of Goals For Per 90 – 0.78 –. The only negative about running a keeper against Everton is that they take the second least amount of Shot For Per 90 – 12.86 –. Therefore, if Fabianski does happen to concede a goal it could break any chance of him reaching value.             

Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Sanchez (DK $5.2K || FD $11), Hennessey (DK $4.7K || FD $9)

Forwards

Morgan Gibbs-White-DK $9.4K || FD $15

Opponent - AFC Bournemouth

We are back with more Gibbs-White. After highlighting him last weekend, he put up 2 assists, 3 shots, 4 created chances, 6 crosses, 3 corners and 1 interception in 90 minutes against Leicester in the 2-0 win. As expected his salary has climbed, although he is in another great matchup, this time against Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium. The Cherries are the worst defense in the league in both Goals Against Per 90 – 1.95 – and Crosses Against Per 90 – 23.6 – and they are the second-worst defense in Shots Against Per 90 – 15.05 –. All of these metrics suit Gibbs-White perfectly as he leads the attack and takes the majority of set-pieces for Nottingham.         

Evan Ferguson- DK $7.2K || FD $18

Opponent - Leicester City

Ferguson is looking more and more like a gift from the heavens. Brighton has been struggling without a solidified striker, however, they may have just found one. Over Ferguson’s four appearances in domestic play – 2 starts –, he has 2 goals, 2 assists, 7 shots, 3 created chances and 1 interception. That is a solid run of form to start his Premier League career off with. To make things better, he has a chance to extend his point-streak to 4 games as he makes his way to King Power Stadium this weekend. Leicester is currently the seventh-worst club in Shots Against Per 90 – 12.9 –, Chances Created Against Per 90 – 9.45 – and they are the sixth-worst club in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.5 –.                 

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Antonio (DK $7.6K || FD $13), Adams (DK $6.2K || FD $14)

Midfielders

James Ward-Prowse- DK $10.3K || FD $17

Opponent - Aston Villa

Ward-Prowse is also getting another shout-out after his clinical performance last weekend, where he personally handed Everton their defeat after scoring both goals for Southampton. In his last five appearances in domestic play he has 4 goals, 1 assist, 10 shots, 10 created chances, 32 crosses, 18 corners, 8 tackles and 8 interceptions. JWP is the heartbeat of this club and despite Aston Villa being an improved opponent compared to Everton, he will still have ample opportunities to produce.                

Jared Bowen- DK $8.6K || FD $15

Opponent - Everton

Here we have our ‘lock’ of the day. Bowen will garner mass amounts of ownership thanks to his role on set-pieces for West Ham and the lesser salary compared to all of the other set-piece takers on the slate. Over his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 10 shots, 9 created chances, 26 crosses, 13 corners, 4 tackles and 4 interceptions. Unsurprisingly, the Hammers have been plundering since the beginning of the season and Bowen is one of the main reasons. He has yet to assist a goal and he has not scored since the second week of October. However, there is no better opportunity than now playing one of the most forgiving defenses in the league, Everton. They are the worst in Shots Against Per 90 – 15.45 –, the fourth-worst in Crosses Against Per 90 – 19.5 –, the worst in Chances Against – 11.9 – and the eighth-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.11 –.               

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): March (DK $8.5K || FD $19), Bailey (DK $7K || FD $13)

Defense

Aaron Cresswell- DK $5.6K || FD $11

Opponent - Everton

Cresswell has been a shadow of his former self seeing reduced production on both ends of the pitch. Through his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 2 shots, 4 created chances, 26 crosses, 8 corners, 2 tackles, 7 interceptions and 6 clearances. Thanks to the aforementioned Everton defense and Cresswell playing at home, he should have ample opportunities to produce here in an attempt to gain form.             

Seamus Coleman- DK $3.3K || FD $8

Opponent - West Ham United

Coleman may be the second ‘lock’ of the day barring him not starting and a change of formation prior to kick-off. As of right now, Everton is expected to roll with a 3-5-2 with Coleman on one of the wings. This would be a perfect spot for him to have a big game considering Everton will be pushing a lot of the game, especially if they go down early. In Coleman’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 1 shot, 5 crosses, 5 tackles, 5 interceptions and 5 clearances. He is undoubtedly producing on the defensive end of the pitch and with this formation, his offensive touch could be unlocked once more.          

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Williams (DK $5.8K || FD $9), Moreno (DK $5K || FD $9)

Corner Takers:

AFC Bournemouth: Anthony/Christie

Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White/Williams

Leicester City: Perez/Tielemans

Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March

Southampton: Ward-Prowse

Aston Villa: Bailey/Luiz

West Ham United: Bowen/Cresswell

Everton: Gray/McNeil

Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!