RADIO
Last weekend was heartbreaking. After starting off the weekend with a winner and correct score (+850), we bagged a game 2 winner and was one goal away from another correct score. The +924 parlay was on the brink of coming in as the under 12.5 corners came in for game 3 but Aston Villa only received one yellow card in their game, rather than the required two. So one yellow card away from glory. But hey ho, the second correct score banked on the season helps us keep ticking over. Onwards and upwards.
- Picks total - 4 out of 12
- Parlays - 0 out of 4
- Correct scores - 2 out of 12
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take into consideration these things before you place any bet. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, November 07th, 2020
Fulham @ West Ham - 3:00 pm ET
Fulham got their first win of the season last week, to lift them out of the relegation zone with a 2-0 victory against winless West Brom. After conceding ten goals in their first three games, they've tightened things up defensively with just four goals conceded in their last four games and a first clean sheet last week. Fulham's away form has been decent too, with one-goal losses in two games and a draw in their other. They've yet to lose by more than one goal in an away game and will go into this weekend with renewed confidence.
West Ham's brutal run of games to start the season is over and they have three consecutive games they should be able to win. They've finished a six-game run against teams who finished in the top-8 last season, picking up eight points in the process. It's been mentioned before that Manager David Moyes was absent (Covid-19) from their only two wins but since his return, they recovered from 3-0 down to draw at Tottenham, drew with Manchester City then narrowly lost to Liverpool last weekend with a late goal.
The loss of Michail Antonio to injury is a big blow to West Ham but they should still have enough to pick up three points here. I don't envisage an easy win (although I wouldn't be surprised if Fulham fails to turn up and get rolled over by three or four) but West Ham still has better players, has scored in every one of those tough six matches they've come through and should have too much for Fulham.
West Ham 14th - 8 pts
Fulham 17th - 4 pts
Score prediction: West Ham 2 - 1 Fulham (Pinnacle & Draftkings odds +700)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - West Ham to win @ -117 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, November 08th, 2020
Liverpool @ Manchester City - 11:30 am ET
Liverpool looks like they've shaken off that 7-2 embarrassment at Aston Villa and have picked up seven points from their three subsequent games to top the league table. They still have just one clean sheet this season in their seven games and the fifteen goals conceded is second-worst in the league. The absence of star defender Virgil Van Dijk is being felt, but they've managed to keep a clean sheet in all three Champions League games, it's just in the EPL where their defensive issues are being highlighted. Only Tottenham has scored more goals than Liverpool so they have no problems at the other end of the pitch.
Manchester City's stuttery start to the season could get a huge boost with a win here and if they manage it, they'll move just two points behind their most likely title challengers with a game in hand. For City, they've strangely had difficulty in scoring goals with just one in each of their last four games, in no small part to losing Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus for much of the early season. Like Liverpool, they have one standout blemish on their record with a 5-2 loss against Leicester, but outside of that game, they've only conceded three goals in their other five games.
This game is a clash in styles which is even more highlighted by the team's current struggles at opposite ends of the pitch. Liverpool's iffy defense should be breached by City despite their attacking issues. And even though Manchester City have been solid defensively, Liverpool should still have too much-attacking talent to be kept out. We'll also include the corners in this bet as the odds for both teams scoring are miserly, to say the least. The last three league meetings between these teams at Manchester City hasn't seen more than seven corners and their six last league contests has seen more than 10 corners just once. Even when they played out a 4-3 thriller, they only combined for ten corners.
Manchester City 10th - 11 pts
Liverpool 1st - 16 pts
Score prediction: Manchester City 1 - 1 Liverpool (Pinnacle odds +800)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Both teams to score Yes & under 11.5 total corners @ +110 (Draftkings)
Aston Villa @ Arsenal - 2:15 pm ET
Aston Villa has been brought back down to Earth after starting the season with four straight wins. A fortnight ago, Leeds ran rampant in beating them 3-0 and last weekend Southampton was 4-1 up against them before two injury-time consolation goals made the scoreline a bit more respectable. After conceding just two goals in their first four games, they've now shipped in seven in two games and look more like the side who had the second-worst defensive record in the league last season.
Arsenal got a huge monkey off their backs last week after finally beating a "Big-6" side away from home in the league. It was a much-needed win too after back-to-back 1-0 defeats. This Arsenal team is very different from previous incarnations as they have the best defensive record in the league and the seven goals conceded in seven games make them the only team to not average more than one goal a game against. They certainly aren't as fluid going forward and haven't scored more than two in a league game since their 3-0 opening day win at Fulham. Similarly to West Ham, Arsenal's run has been tough with four of their last five games coming against teams who finished in the top-5 last season.
Last week's win at Manchester United might just release a pressure valve on this Arsenal team and they may be able to play with a bit more freedom than in recent weeks against a Villa side who now look shaky at the back. A contentious disallowed goal last week contributed to Arsenal's first home defeat of the season and against, albeit weaker, opposition in the Europa League, they've scored seven in two home games either side of their win at Old Trafford.
Arsenal 9th - 12 pts
Aston Villa 8th - 12 pts
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 1 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +900)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Arsenal to win & Arsenal to score over 1.5 goals @ -108 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All three picks @ +750
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!
