RADIO
Last weekend was a bit of a disaster, despite being one goal away in all three games from a sweep. Fulham lost 2-1, just needing to draw, Wolves conceded a late equalizer from questionable goalkeeping (although the under 3.5 goals did hit) and Brighton conceded a late equalizer (although the over 1.5 goals hit). Unfortunately, we don't win money for being close so we dust ourselves off and go again. This week's edition comes out early as we have a Friday night game which has appealing odds.
- Picks total - 2 out of 9
- Parlays - 0 out of 3
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take into consideration these things before you place any bet. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Friday, October 30th, 2020
Crystal Palace @ Wolves - 4:00 pm ET
As mentioned, Wolves hurt us last weekend by conceding a late equalizer. Correctly predicted; it was a close game with Newcastle and the goals came in the second half. Friday's game should be a similar affair. Wolves will look to keep things tight and last week's goal denied them three straight clean sheets. They look like they are missing Diego Jota from an offensive standpoint (after his move to Liverpool) as they have only scored six goals in their six games so far this season. But they still have enough match-winners and I expect a repeat of last season's encounter which Wolves won 2-0.
Crystal Palace also hurt us last week by beating a Fulham side who remain bottom of the league. They played in their usual style, looking to break and nick a goal which they did early which allowed them to play almost in cruise control. Wolves are a considerably better team than Fulham at both ends of the pitch. Wilfried Zaha remains a huge part of how Crystal Palace plays and he leads the team with five goals this year. Wolves rarely get caught on the break however and for Crystal Palace, that might prove to be the sticking point for them in finding a breakthrough of their own.
Wolves 9th - 10 pts
Crystal Palace 8th - 10 pts
Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 0 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +850)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Wolves to win @ +101 (Pinnacle)
Saturday, October 31st, 2020
West Ham United @ Liverpool- 1:30 pm ET
Liverpool returned to winning ways last week with a come from behind 2-1 victory against Sheffield United. The only blemish on their season remains the 7-2 hammering against Aston Villa and they appear to be the favorites to retain their title this year. That is despite suffering from a plethora of defensive injuries which goes some way to explaining why they've conceded 14 goals in six games and have just one league clean sheet. Going forward, Liverpool remains one of the most prolific teams in European football. They've scored 15 goals in six games and at least two in every game. With their defensive woes, they need to score at least two to win games right now.
West Ham has recorded back-to-back impressive draws, coming from 3-0 down with ten minutes left t0 draw at Tottenham before picking up a point against Manchester City last week (1-1 at home). Strangely, their only two wins came when their manager David Moyes had to miss both games following a positive Covid-19 test, both of which were emphatic victories against better opposition in Wolves (4-0) and Leicester City (3-0). Read into that what you want. But they have proved they can score against the bigger teams with the only blank coming in the opening day loss against Newcastle.
These two teams have played a combined 12 league games with a total of 49 goals coming in those matches. With Liverpool scoring two or more in every game and keeping just one clean sheet, coupled with West Ham scoring in five straight games, I'm expecting goals here. This fixture ended 3-2 to Liverpool last season and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a similar scoreline again. I expect Liverpool to win but finding value in that is difficult so we'll back the goal-lines in this game.
Liverpool 2nd - 13 pts
West Ham United 12th - 8 pts
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 1 West Ham United (Pinnacle odds +950)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Both teams to score Yes & over 2.5 total goals @ -114 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, November 01st, 2020
Southampton @ Aston Villa - 7:00 am ET
Aston Villa's impressive winning run to start the season was halted at home to Leeds last Friday, suffering their first defeat of the season 3-0. I don't believe Aston Villa is as good as their third place in the league suggests but they've not relied on luck and have deserved their early success. It'll be a challenge to see how they react to their first setback this season and the extra couple of days between games might help them take stock and realize their loss was more down to Leeds being excellent than anything they did wrong.
For Southampton, they ended Everton's unbeaten start to the season with a comfortable 2-0 victory at home and are now unbeaten in four league games. Their only away win this season was a 1-0 victory against a winless Burnley team but they did manage to win ten more points away than at home last season, including a 3-1 win in this fixture.
This looks to be a tight game on paper and a draw wouldn't surprise me in the least. But for our pick, we're going to look at the cards and corner markets, which admittedly haven't been too kind to us so far. In regards to corners, both teams rank in the bottom half for corners won and both have had a total of 48 corners in their games. There haven't been more than ten total corners in any Southampton game and not since the opening game of the season has there been more than ten total corners in any Aston Villa game.
For the cards, Aston Villa has had at least two players booked in every game while Southampton has only had more than one player booked in two games this season with four of their nine bookings this season coming in a 5-2 loss against Tottenham. Last season, Southampton's 55 total yellow cards were the third-fewest also so I'd also be inclined to lean towards Aston Villa receiving more bookings in this game if you went down that route. That outcome could be heavily dependant on how the game plays out and as I mentioned, it should be a tight game and is too close to call.
Aston Villa 3rd - 12 pts
Southampton 7th - 10 pts
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 1 Southampton (Pinnacle odds +650)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Under 12.5 total corners & Aston Villa over 1.5 total cards @ +145 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All three picks @ +924
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!
