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Not quite the weekend we wanted but we scraped the smallest of profits despite only picking three winners from nine picks. Manchester United lost their first league game but did get a penalty and both teams hit the corners bet. Unfortunately, Bruno Fernandes missed the penalty to pick up another winner. Watford then had a late winner ruled out which would've bagged us another two winning picks but VAR intervened and left us with just the 'both team to score' a winner. Still, a 100.88% ROI which after the previous three big weeks isn't too bad. There's another international break after this weekend so there's a two-week wait for the next lot of EPL fixtures.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 22-21-2 (+10.94 U)
- Match results: 9-5
Saturday, October 02nd, 2021
Watford (+377) at Leeds United (-128) - 10:00 am ET
Leeds enter this weekend still searching for their first league win of the season. They are still seeking a first clean sheet of the EPL season also and the 14 goals conceded is tied for second-most. They have managed to score in five of their six games with the only blank coming at home against league-leaders Liverpool.
They will again be without last season's top-scorer Patrick Bamford for this game but Raphinha has three goals so far including goals in each of Leeds' last two games and has scored in both the home games in which Leeds found the back of the net.
Watford would've picked up all three points last week if not for a disallowed goal, but were lucky to get a point as Newcastle was considerably better for most of the game. Like Leeds, Watford is seeking a first clean sheet of the season but hasn't conceded more than two in a game so far.
I feel like Leeds will get their first win of the season here and probably should have won last week against West Ham but ended up succumbing to a late losing goal. There have been three or more goals in all of Leeds' home games so far and their style of play was similar to how Newcastle had success against Watford last week. Leeds is more adept at the pressing style which caused Watford so many problems and even without Bamford, I expect them to find a way to win this game.
We'll also dabble in a couple of prop bets, starting with corners. Watford has had five or more corners in each of their last three games while Leeds has reached that total four times (the only occasions they had fewer than five corners were the games against Liverpool and Manchester United). Both teams average conceding more than six corners per game also.
The second prop bet is on bookings, with both teams frequently getting yellow cards. Both teams have received 14 yellow cards this season which is tied for the most while Watford's opponents have totaled 15 bookings (second-most) and Leeds' opponents have totaled 14 (tied-third most).
Leeds has also had at least two bookings in all six of their games and Watford has received three or more bookings in four of their six games. Simon Hooper will be refereeing his first EPL game of the season and in his two lower-league games this season, he's totaled nine yellow cards. Any combination of over 3.5 bookings is appealing here.
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 1 Watford
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Leeds United (-128) 1.5 units
- Both teams/total goals - Yes & Over 2.5 (+110) 1 unit
- Anytime goalscorer - Raphinha (+185) 0.5 units
- Each team total corners taken - 5+ (+138) 1 unit
- Both teams total bookings - over 1.5 (+170) 0.5 units
Sunday, October 03rd, 2021
Leicester City (+136) at Crystal Palace (+222) - 9:00 am ET
Sunday's game is the closer of our two games on paper and we're going to back the underdogs. Kind of.
Crystal Palace's six points from six games doesn't look much to write home about, especially with just one win from those six games. But they have just two defeats which came against Liverpool (first) and Chelsea (third). Both defeats were also away from home and they remain unbeaten at home, thanks to an injury-time equalizer on Monday night against Brighton.
Leicester had a Europa League game on Thursday night (away at Legia Warsaw). Many teams struggle in league games following a midweek European match and Leicester lost to Brighton two weeks ago following their first Europa League game. Leicester hasn't looked anything like the team they did last season. They are without a clean sheet since the opening game of the season and only have one win (against bottom side Norwich) in their last five EPL games.
I have serious concerns about Leicester City defensively. They brought in Jannik Vestergaard from Southampton (who had the second-worst defensive record in the league last season) and he's partnered Cagler Soyuncu in the heart of Leicester's defense in the last three league games.
Soyuncu regularly looks like he's on the brink of making a howler and it's no surprise that Leicester has conceded five goals in the three games these two have started alongside each other. Soyuncu had already been credited with a mistake that led to a goal this season. For context, no player had more than three in the whole of last season.
Both Vestergaard and Soyuncu have conceded a penalty already this season too and Crystal Palace has been awarded two in their six games. Wilfried Zaha is always a threat to score and win a penalty and if he's able to isolate either defender in the penalty area, there's a decent chance he'll win a penalty or score, both of which look solid prop bets especially given Zaha is the regular penalty taker for Crystal Palace. Zaha also scored in both fixtures between these two teams last season.
Leicester's Jamie Vardy already has five goals in the league this season and has scored in two of three away games. He fits perfectly into Leicester's counter-attacking style of play and only played the final ten minutes of their game on Thursday so should be fresh for Sunday. He's also Leicester's penalty taker and I fancy him to get his name on the scoresheet this week.
I expect this to be a close game but just edge Crystal Palace as probable winners so we'll hedge with the draw and take Crystal Palace with the 'draw no bet'. I am really worried about Leicester's two center-backs and think Crystal Palace can exploit that but Leicester carries enough firepower to score a couple themselves. There are a lot of picks I like in this game which could end up being the best game of the weekend if they both play to their attacking potential and the defensive frailties show themselves.
Of course, that means the game will end up being the dullest 0-0 of the season, but we've been on a good run and this game has the makings of being one worth rolling the dice on.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 2 Leicester City
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Draw (+245) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Crystal Palace (+122) 1 unit
- Total team goals - Crystal Palace over 1.5 (+199) 0.5 units
- Total goals - Over 2.5 (+106) 1.5 units
- Anytime goalscorer - Wilfried Zaha (+210) 0.5 units
- Anytime goalscorer - Jamie Vardy (+130) 0.5 units
- Home team to take a penalty - Yes (+400) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
