RADIO
Another week of profit last weekend. We correctly predicted Watford would beat Norwich despite being the underdogs and that both teams would score. Unfortunately, Norwich picked up a 95th-minute yellow card which stopped us sweeping the picks on the game. Then Sunday saw Chelsea beat Tottenham while keeping a clean sheet, both of which we correctly predicted. Chelsea's dominance meant yellow cards weren't as common as we'd have hoped for but still another profitable game. That made it three straight weeks of over 150% ROI. Let's hope we make it four.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 19-15-2 (+10.87 U)
- Match results: 9-3
Saturday, September 25th, 2021
Aston Villa (+693) at Manchester United (-240) - 07:30 am ET
Manchester United scraped an away win at West Ham last weekend after the home side brought on Mark Noble in injury time to take a penalty which would have leveled it at 2-2. He missed it and Manchester United held on to make it three straight league wins.
Manchester United has four wins and a draw from their first five EPL games of the season, while they only have one clean sheet (a 1-0 win against Wolves). Their one blemish came in the Champions League on matchday one when they lost 2-1 to BSC Young Boys. They're due to play Villarreal on Wednesday on matchday two in what has become a must-win game. They rested Cristiano Ronaldo for that defeat and I doubt Ole Solskjaer will risk playing a weakened side again so could rest him this weekend instead.
Aston Villa inflicted a first league defeat on Everton last weekend, with a comprehensive 3-0 win. They've won two, drawn one and lost two so far with both away games resulting in defeats. Both of those defeats saw Aston Villa concede three goals (3-2 and 3-0).
Both matches between these two last season saw Manchester United run-out winners (3-1 and 2-1), with Bruno Fernandes scoring a penalty in each encounter. Manchester United's 11 penalties last season were second-most although they're still looking for their first this season. They could (and probably should) have had at least one last weekend.
We'll also add in corners for this game. Their matches last season saw 15 corners in one game and 11 in the other with both teams winning five corners in each game. Aston Villa is averaging 5.2 corners a game this season while Manchester United is averaging 7.4 per game.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3 - 1 Aston Villa
Betting Picks:
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals - Yes (+110) 1 unit
- Anytime goalscorer - Bruno Fernandes (+125) 0.5 units
- Manchester United to take a penalty - Yes (+200) 0.5 units
- Corners - Both teams 4+ corners (-110) 2 units
Newcastle United (+240) at Watford (+130) - 10:00 am ET
As mentioned, Watford beat Norwich 3-1 last weekend for their second win of the season. It was their first points and first goals since opening day when they also scored three so it has been a bit of feast or famine for Watford. It also meant they have yet to keep a clean sheet so far this season.
Newcastle is looking for their first win of the season, with two draws and three losses their record so far. Fans were calling for manager Steve Bruce to be sacked during last weekend's game and defeat again here could well see them get their wishes. Only Norwich has conceded more than Newcastle's 13 this season and they are also seeking a first clean sheet of the season.
Newcastle has scored in four of their five games as they do appear to be more attack-minded than perhaps they have been in recent times and Steve Bruce seems to be trying to change his reputation of a negative manager. Sadly for them, the results haven't suggested they can be successful that way. Last week's 1-1 draw was the first game this season in which they didn't concede more than two so maybe they can consider. Perhaps.....
Regardless of that, Steve Bruce appears to be on borrowed time even if they do manage to pick up their first win of the season and they just look like a team going through the motions in need of fresh ideas and leadership. The fact Newcastle's scoring goals but unable to keep them out and Watford hasn't kept a clean sheet either makes me believe this could be a high-scoring affair. At the very least, both teams should score.
Jarred Gillett will make history as the first overseas referee of an EPL game. Dating back to last season, he's awarded a penalty in each of his last five games in the Championship and averages giving one penalty in every four games. He also averages 3.33 yellow cards a game in the Championship.
Both teams have received ten bookings this season while Watford's opponents have had 12 and Newcastle's opponents have had 9. If Newcastle does get something out of the game, they will likely have to dig in which could lead to more bookings, or if Watford is dominant, again Newcastle could wind up with more yellow cards. I certainly see more routes towards Newcastle being more penalized although I don't think the referee will want a feisty affair and might be a bit more lenient in his first EPL game.
Score prediction: Watford 2 - 1 Newcastle United
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Watford (+130) 0.5 units
- Both teams to score - Yes (-120) 1.5 units
- Total goals - Over 2.5 (+100) 1 unit
- A penalty to be taken - Yes (+175) 0.5 units
- Team with the most booking points - Newcastle (+120) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
