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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the EPL Matchweek 5 slate on 10/17/2020 and 10/18/2020. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games.
Two weeks ago saw some of the craziest scorelines in Premier League history. Champions Liverpool shipped in seven goals against a team who survived relegation on the final day of last season, while Manchester United was busy having six stuck past them at home. For us, picking Leeds United vs Manchester City BTTS & over 2.5 goals somehow didn't come in despite the two teams combining for 35 shots (the most of any game this season). Southampton helped us get up and running before we were once again let down, this time by Wolves who won but didn't take the lead until the second half. So an auspicious start but one we were close to sweeping.
- Picks total - 1 out of 3
- Parlays - 0 out of 1
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take into consideration these things before you place any bet. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, October 17th, 2020
Liverpool @ Everton - 7:30 am ET
Matchweek 5 starts with a bang as the Merseyside Derby kicks things off on Saturday morning. Due to the international break, Liverpool has had two weeks to stew on their 7-2 shellacking in their last game while Everton has been sitting pretty atop the table. Whilst the two rivals had contrasting fortunes last match week, it's safe to say Liverpool have had the better of this fixture in recent times.
Everton last tasted victory over their local rivals in 2010 with 11 draws and eight defeats in their last 19 league games (plus three FA cup defeats). But this is arguably the best Everton side to have faced Liverpool in recent memory, a side which has won all four league games so far, scoring 12 goals and nine of those have come in their two home games.
Liverpool had looked like the team to beat again this year, winning their first three games of the season and scoring nine goals in the process. After their last game, they have now conceded 11 goals in four games after conceding just 33 all of last season. It wasn't until match week 13 last season that they conceded their eleventh goal of the season and despite going 27 games unbeaten to start last season, Liverpool only managed two clean sheets in their opening 15 games.
This is a fixture that has lacked goals in recent times. Despite being unable to beat Liverpool in ten years, Everton has lost to them just once in their last eight home games, drawing seven times. The last three meetings with Everton as the home team all ended 0-0. But this is a different time with a record number of goals being scored and with most top sides being unable to get much work done at the training ground to stop that due to the international fixtures. I expect goals in this game with the two sides combining for 39 goals in their eight total games so far.
Everton 1st - 12 pts
Liverpool 5th - 9 pts
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 2 Liverpool (Pinnacle odds +1150)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both to Score/Total Goals: Yes & over 2.5 @ -115 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, October 18th, 2020
Fulham @ Sheffield United - 7:00 am ET
Fulham was much better in their last game against Wolves, losing 1-0 in the end. It was the first time they kept a clean sheet in the first half of a game and while they looked better defensively, they still lack a cutting edge upfront. They've now failed to score in three of their four games so far and only West Brom have conceded more goals. Sitting bottom of the table without a point to their name, they'll want to get on the board soon otherwise this season might be an uglier one for Fulham than even most people expected.
Sheffield United has had an even bigger issue scoring goals with just one in their four games (a consolation goal against Arsenal in their last game) but unlike Fulham, they have conceded only six. They have attempted to address this by signing Liverpool youngster Rhian Brewster for a club-record fee of around $30m. It's a big gamble for Sheffield United and they'll hope he can begin repaying their faith with a debut goal this weekend.
These teams have contrasting styles of play, with Fulham looking to keep possession and pass their way through the lines. Sheffield United are more direct and look to turn their opponents around quickly and get on the front foot. That goes a long way to explaining why Sheffield United has had the third most corners this season (25) while Fulham is 18th in that regard with 12. This looks like a good place to find value when betting on this game.
Sheffield United 19th - 0 pts
Fulham 20th - 0 pts
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 0 Fulham (Pinnacle & Draftkings odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Double chance Sheffield United/draw & Sheffield United most corners @ -105 (Draftkings)
Aston Villa @ Leicester City - 2:15 pm ET
For our final game, we head back towards the top of the table where Aston Villa are fresh off of shocking the soccer world with their 7-2 victory against Liverpool last time out. That made it three wins in three games for Villa, something they failed to do all of last season. They're also the only team who have averaged fewer than one goal against per game so far (two goals against in three games).
Leicester came back to Earth with a bump last time out, losing 3-0 to West Ham. That came on the back of three straight wins to start the season, scoring twelve goals in the process. The highlight of that run was the 5-2 win away at Manchester City. Leicester City begins their Europa League campaign in midweek and they'll be keen to get back to winning ways before their European season kicks off.
I give the edge to Leicester in this game but it's too close for me to be completely comfortable. An area that does offer more value is the cards and corners markets. Leicester's 28 corners so far are second-most in the league while Aston Villa has had 15 (15th) in one fewer game. Combined, they average 12 corners a game so far. Despite fewer games, Aston Villa has received more yellow cards (8) than Leicester City (7), and as the away team is more likely to have less possession and a good bet to receive more cautions here.
Leicester City 3rd - 9 pts
Aston Villa 2nd - 9 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 1 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +775)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Leicester City most corners & Aston Villa over 1.5 cards @ +115 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All three picks @ +785
I also like Everton/Liverpool both to score and Leicester City & Sheffield United to win @ +657
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!
