EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 38: English Premier League

3 years ago by Jamie Steed

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We've done it. We've reached the last matchweek of the season. Quite frankly, it can't come soon enough as the last couple of weeks have been a complete blowout. This season has bought some nice big winners but also plenty of heartbreak. At least 10 times we've missed out on a winner due to questionable officiating and the use of VAR. And I'm still salty about losing out on a +1400 parlay along with the +120 pick and +1250 correct score due to a missed 95th-minute penalty kick last month. As I've mentioned throughout the month of May, end-of-season games are more unpredictable than normal. And that's never more true than the final weekend of the season. As a result, this week's article is a little different than normal.

Picks total - 40 out of 101
Correct scores - 10 out of 97

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

This week, I will preview every game, but I will just go through the permutations for each game so you can decide whether it's worth betting on as some games are completely meaningless in the fact they won't make any difference to the final standings, European qualification, relegation etc. I will pick some prop bets I believe will offer some value too. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

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Sunday, May 23rd, 2021 - 11:00 am ET

All games kick off at the same time. The Champions (Manchester City) and relegated teams (Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham) have been decided. Still to play for are the final Champions League qualification places (2nd, 3rd and 4th), Europa League qualification (5th and 6th) and the Europa Conference League qualification (7th). Other than some professional pride and a small amount of prize money, places from 8th to 17th have no bearing on things.

Also worth noting is Manchester City and Chelsea face each other next Saturday in the Champions League final. Manchester United face Villarreal on Wednesday in the Europa League final.

Click here for the current league table.

Brighton (16th) @ Arsenal (9th)

Brighton can finish anywhere from 13th to 17th.

Arsenal can finish 7th if they win and both Everton and Tottenham fail to win.

Chelsea (3rd) @ Aston Villa (11th)

Chelsea is guaranteed 3rd with a win. They'll finish 5th if they draw or lose and Liverpool and Leicester both win, or if they lose, Leicester wins and Liverpool draws or wins.

Aston Villa is guaranteed to finish 11th.

Newcastle United (15th) @ Fulham (18th)

Newcastle can finish anywhere from 12th to 17th.

Fulham can finish 18th or 19th.

West Brom (19th) @ Leeds United (10th)

West Brom can finish 18th or 19th.

Leeds can finish 7th if they win, Arsenal, Everton and Tottenham lose and there's a 16-goal swing in their favor between themselves and Tottenham.

Tottenham (7th) @ Leicester City (5th)

Tottenham can finish 6th if they win and West Ham lose. They'll finish 7th if they match or better Everton's and Arsenal's results and West Ham avoid defeat. They'll finish 8th or worse if Everton betters their result or if they fail to win and Arsenal win.

Leicester will finish in the top-4 if they better Liverpool's result or if they win and Chelsea fails to win. They cannot finish below 5th.

Crystal Palace (13th) @ Liverpool (4th)

Crystal Palace can finish anywhere from 12th to 16th.

Liverpool will finish in the top-4 if they better either Chelsea's or Leicester's results. If they match Leicester's result, they'll still finish top-4 as long as Leciester's goal difference doesn't improve by five over Liverpool's. To finish 5th, Chelsea needs to match their result and Leicester better their result, or if Leicester matches their result with the five-goal swing.

Everton (8th) @ Manchester City (1st)

Everton can finish 6th if they win, Tottenham fails to win and West Ham loses with a nine-goal swing. They can finish 7th if they better Tottenham's result.

Manchester City has already won the league.

Burnley (17th) @ Sheffield United (20th)

Burnley can finish anywhere from 15th to 17th.

Sheffield United is guaranteed to finish 20th.

Southampton (14th) @ West Ham United (6th)

Southampton can finish anywhere from 12th to 16th.

West Ham will finish 6th with a win or a draw. They can still finish 6th with a loss if Tottenham fails to win or Everton fails to win and cover a nine-goal swing. They'll finish 7th with a loss, a Tottenham win and Everton fails to win and cover a nine-goal swing. They can finish 8th if they lose, Tottenham win and Everton with and cover a nine-goal swing.

Manchester United (2nd) @ Wolves (12th)

Manchester United is guaranteed to finish 2nd.

Wolves can finish anywhere from 12th to 15th

Prop Bets

There's a battle between Harry Kane (Tottenham) and Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) to be the EPL top scorer. Both are currently on 22 and it appears as though this will be Harry Kane's last game for Tottenham. Both players take their team's penalties and some free-kicks and both are involved in games where their team needs to win.

Both Kane and Salah to score anytime @ +262

Every season, the last matchweek throws up one or two big scorelines. In the last six season finales, there has been at least one game with five or more goals in and at least two such games in five of the last six seasons. The problem is trying to predict which of the games will be the crazy scoreline. That trend also lends itself to there being very few 0-0 scorelines on the final day of the season. In fact, there have only been two 0-0 scorelines on the final day in the last ten seasons (one in 2018/19 and one in 2014/15). So 98 of the last 100 games played on the EPL final day has seen at least one goal.

Over 0.5 goals in all ten games @ -450
Over 1.5 goals in all ten games @ +366

If you pick all the teams who have to win to guarantee or give themselves a chance at European qualification to beat those who are playing for nothing, you can back Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester and Everton to win. Everton away at Manchester City is a bit tough so you can hedge that game.