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As we predicted last week, the Premier League threw out some interesting scorelines alongside the Carabao Cup final and prior to the European fixtures this midweek. We mentioned how a newly relegated team suddenly finds an ability to win, with Sheffield United beating Brighton and we correctly had Leeds avoiding defeat against Manchester United. This stage of the season continues to throw up strange results so please keep treading carefully.
- Picks total - 39 out of 92
- Correct scores - 10 out of 91
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't preview every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Friday, April 30th, 2021
Leicester City @ Southampton - 3:00 pm ET
A repeat of the FA Cup semi-final a fortnight ago pits Leicester City against Southampton with both teams in need of points for different reasons. Leicester looks to close in on a top-4 finish and qualification into next season's Champions League. They appeared to be suffering from a late-season collapse like last year (which saw them drop down and finish in fifth) but have turned things around with back-to-back league wins aided by the form of striker Kelechi Iheanacho. Two wins from their remaining five games should seal the top-4 finish this time around.
Southampton should be safe from relegation already but will still feel one more win would seal the deal. The problem is, since the calendar flipped to 2021, no team has picked up fewer points in the EPL than Southampton (10 points from 16 games). Their goal difference is such that if they lose their remaining six games, there's still a solid chance they end up relegated. Their only two wins in their last 15 EPL games came against Burnley (14th) and Sheffield United (20th). During that spell, the nine games against sides currently in the top half have seen Southampton pick up one point and be outscored 5-27.
I also like Iheanacho to score in this one again (he's scored nine goals in his last seven league games) and can be backed at +130 to score anytime or +400 for first or last goalscorer.
Leicester City 3rd - 62 pts
Southampton 15th - 36 pts
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Leicester City (Draftkings & Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Money line - Leicester City to win @ +106 (Pinnacle)
Saturday, May 01st, 2021
Leeds United @ Brighton - 10:00 am ET
Leeds' impressive run to end the season continued with a 0-0 draw against Manchester United. That followed a 2-1 win against Manchester City and a 1-1 draw with Liverpool and extended their unbeaten run to six games. They've performed well against teams below them in the league table and only four of their 14 defeats have been against sides in the bottom half. Their away record is eight wins, eight losses and zero draws as their playstyle does not lend itself to drawing games away from home.
Brighton is another team who finds themselves on the brink of being sucked into the relegation battle and should need just one more win to feel safe. They're in the midst of a three-game streak without scoring, their longest of the season and with their final three games of the season all coming against top-half teams, they'll want to secure three points and safety here.
The fact Brighton ideally needs to win, Leeds' record against sides below them in the table and Leeds having not drawn away all season, I expect both teams to score. That's something which has occurred in eight of Leeds' 15 away games and nine of Brighton's 15 home games.
Leeds United 9th - 46 pts
Brighton 17th - 34 pts
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 2 Leeds United (Pinnacle odds +1050)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Both teams to score & double chance: Leeds United or Brighton @ +155 (Draftkings)
Fulham @ Chelsea - 12:30 pm ET
Fulham managed to scrape a 1-1 draw away at Arsenal last time out with their only shot on target coming from a contentious penalty. Yet, they would've won if they hadn't conceded a 94th-minute equalizer and as good as the point might seem in normal circumstances, they need to win games to avoid relegation. They're the team more likely to catch Brighton or Southampton but will need to win three of their remaining five games to stand any hope. That draw did end a run of four straight defeats but they've only won five games all season and it's a tough ask for them to win at least three more.
Chelsea earned a solid draw in their midweek Champions League tie with Real Madrid and will play the second leg of that semi-final on Wednesday. That would ordinarily give me a reason to avoid picking their game but they have such depth in their squad and are still in a battle to finish fourth to qualify for next season's Champions League, they will still field a strong team. Since Thomas Tuchel took charge, Chelsea has played 14 league games, winning eight and only losing just one. Twelve of those games have seen three or fewer goals scored and they've kept ten clean sheets.
I anticipate this being a pretty tight affair with Fulham holding their own but ultimately coming up short.
Fulham 18th - 27 pts
Chelsea 4th - 58 pts
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 0 Fulham (Pinnacle & Draftkings odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Chelsea to win & under 3.5 total goals @ +105 (DraftKings)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks as a parlay @ +977
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 35 picks.
