RADIO
Last week was a goose egg. Southampton hit the woodwork to deny us the pick and a Chelsea goal would've seen as bag the pick and correct score. It was the same story for Sheffield United who needed a goal to bag us the pick and correct score. And West Brom was denied a clear penalty to stop us from getting the pick in their game, and potentially the correct score. On the brink of a clean sweep, yet nothing to show for it. A reminder of how fickle the EPL can be. Anyways, this matchweek sees a full 10 game slate over the weekend and Monday and a further seven games from Tuesday to Thursday so we'll focus on the weekend slate and then midweek games will feature in part 2 this weekend.
- Picks total - 27 out of 67
- Parlays - 2 out of 22
- Correct scores - 8 out of 69
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, February 27th, 2021
Brighton @ West Brom - 10:00 am ET
Brighton contrived to lose 2-1 at home to Crystal Palace on Monday, despite their opponents only having two shots on target and the second of those coming in the 93rd minute. Crystal Palace's expected goals scored for that game was 0.2 and Brighton's was 2.6. That defeat has left Brighton just four points above the relegation zone and with just one home league win all season. It was their first defeat in seven league games and the first time they conceded twice in a league game since January 02nd.
West Brom managed to survive for an hour with ten-men last weekend to secure a point at Burnley. Despite the sending off, West Brom actually looked more likely to score than Burnley. That does leave them nine points from safety and seven games without a league win. They have 13 games remaining and realistically need at least seven wins to have a chance to avoid relegation. Unfortunately for them, this game is the easiest one remaining on paper and they have only managed three clean sheets all season. One was against bottom of the table Sheffield United and the other two both came against Burnley.
These two sides played out a 1-1 draw earlier this season and I expect a tight affair again here. For all of Brighton's good play, they fail to take enough of their chances. While a point might seem a disappointment for Brighton, they cannot afford to lose this one. This is close to a must-win game for both sides and I don't think West Brom can afford to draw so will need to push for the win, hence why I think both teams score. I just get the feeling, neither side will manage to take all three points.
West Brom 19th - 14 pts
Brighton 16th - 26 pts
Score prediction: West Brom 1 - 1 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Both to score @ -104 (Pinnacle)
Wolves @ Newcastle United - 3:00 pm ET
While Newcastle has won two of their last five league games, following a run of two points from their previous nine games, they remain just three points above 18th and the relegation zone. They do still have to play the three teams occupying the league spots beneath them and the two directly above them so have a good chance to stay up this season. While they have lacked goals, their recent run has seen them ship in goals too frequently with seven of their last eight games seeing them concede two or three goals. Only West Brom has conceded more this season.
Wolves' desperately poor form of their own appears to be over. After going eight league games without a win, they've picked up 10 points from their last four games and have kept three clean sheets in their last six games. They didn't have one in their previous 12 games. Goals are still somewhat difficult to come by with just five in their last four games and just 26 in 25 games all season.
Wolves are certainly the team on the up out of these two. Newcastle is nervously looking over their shoulder while Wolves are now looking up again. The tension may prove too much for Newcastle and a confident Wolves team should be able to take advantage.
Newcastle United 17th - 25 pts
Wolves 12th - 33 pts
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 Wolves (Pinnacle odds +900)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Wolves to win @ +127 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, February 28th, 2021
Fulham @ Crystal Palace - 7:00 am ET
As mentioned, Crystal Palace somehow picked up all three points against Brighton on Monday to keep daylight between themselves and the relegation zone. It'd need a catastrophic collapse for them to get relegated from here. Despite having scored ten goals in their last ten games, Crystal Palace has actually failed to register an expected goal scored (xG) of 1.0 or more in any of their last ten games. Concerningly, they've conceded 14 goals in their last 7 games. That being said, three of their four clean sheets this season have come in their last nine games.
Fulham managed to secure a huge 1-0 victory against Sheffield United last weekend to really boost their survival hopes. We've mentioned before that although they went 12 league games without a win, they only lost four of those games and now find themselves unbeaten in their last four (two wins and two draws). They've only scored more than two in a game once this season (in matchweek 2) but since matchweek 4, have only conceded more than twice in a game once. After conceding ten goals in their first three league games, they've conceded 22 since in 22 games so have been relatively good defensively.
Every so often, a game that's got 'low-scoring' written all over it turns into a 6-goal thriller. This could very well be that game, but in reality, it's more likely to finish 0-0 than 2-2. Fulham will gladly take a point from this game and despite being ten points adrift of their opponents in the standings, find themselves installed as favorites. That's something I believe we can take advantage of here. If anything, I shade the game in favor of Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace 13th - 32 pts
Fulham 18th - 22 pts
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Fulham (Pinnacle odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Crystal Palace to win or draw and under 3.5 total goals @ -106 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +765
Alternatively, as a bonus this week, I like;
- Leicester City win or draw (-230)
- Crystal Palace win or draw (-148)
- Wolves win or draw (-310)
- Brighton/West Brom both to score (-104)
- Leeds/Aston Villa both to score (-190)
- Everton/Southampton both to score (-120)
That gives odds of +1645
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back this weekend for part 2 of the matchweek 26 picks.
