RADIO
Matchweek 21 was a bit of a disaster. Another week where VAR killed us, denying Southampton two goals in controversial fashion. Then Leicester and Leeds did play out a 3-1 as we predicted, just the wrong way around with Leeds taking the three points. Then the final game, we again correctly predicted the game would end 1-0, but again it was the wrong team taking the spoils with Brighton upsetting Tottenham. There's a clear increase in upsets as the schedule has been so congested so we need to tread carefully. This edition will also be a bit of a TL:DR version due to time constraints and I'd rather put the time into the research than scrimp there. But we will have four games covered instead of the usual three to make up for it.
- Picks total - 21 out of 55
- Parlays - 1 out of 18
- Correct scores - 7 out of 56
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Tuesday, February 02nd, 2021
West Brom @ Sheffield United - 1:00 pm ET
Sheffield United followed up their shock 2-1 victory at Manchester United with a narrow 1-0 loss at Manchester City. After scoring just eight goals in their first 17 games, they've scored four in four games and come into this must-win game having secured 75% of their points this season in their last four games.
West Brom continues to leak goals at an alarming rate with a 2-2 draw against fellow strugglers Fulham at the weekend. Their last clean sheet came 12 games ago when they beat Sheffield United in the reverse fixture and they have conceded 20 in their last six games.
Sheffield United look like they are on the up, albeit it's likely too late to avoid relegation. But I give them the edge in the battle of the bottom two.
Sheffield United 20th - 8 pts
West Brom 19th - 12 pts
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 0 West Brom (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Sheffield United to win @ -102 (Pinnacle)
Crystal Palace @ Newcastle United - 3:15 pm ET
Crystal Palace got a much-needed win against a struggling Wolves team on Saturday by a 1-0 scoreline. Crystal Palace has the 3rd worst expected goal (xG) total with 18.5 in their 21 games this season but they have performed well against sides in the bottom half. They have six wins, one draw and three defeats against teams 11th or lower in the league and in seven of those ten games, there have been two or fewer goals.
Newcastle also got a huge win with a shock 2-0 victory at Everton ending a run of nine winless EPL games and five straight defeats in the league. There has been a more concerted effort to play attacking football in the last three games with mixed results. In 12 of their 21 games this season, there have been two or fewer goals scored.
Newcastle won the reverse fixture 2-0 making it five straight league meetings between the two where both teams haven't scored in the game, all of which have seen two or fewer goals scored.
Newcastle United 15th - 22 pts
Crystal Palace 13th - 26 pts
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 1 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Game lines - Under 2.5 total goals @ -113 (Draftkings)
Wednesday, February 03rd, 2021
Everton @ Leeds United - 2:30 pm ET
As mentioned, Everton suffered a shock 2-0 loss at home to Newcastle at the weekend and will be keen to bounce back as they push for a top-4 league place. Despite being eighth in the league table, five of their six defeats this season have been against sides lower than them in the table including a 1-0 loss to Leeds on matchweek 10.
Leeds secured an impressive 3-1 win at Leicester making it back-to-back away victories. They have not yet won three straight league games this season. As is increasingly common without fans, Leeds has more points from away games (18) than home games (11) and only one of those points has come at home against a top-half team (four games). Leeds home games are very erratic as there have been five or more goals in three of them and the other six have seen a total of just eight goals.
This game could end 1-0 or 4-3 to either team, it's a real crapshoot. Everton hasn't gone two games without scoring this season and despite the previous meeting between the two sides ending 1-0, there was an expected goal total of 4.5.
Leeds United 12th - 29 pts
Everton 8th - 33 pts
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 2 Everton (Pinnacle odds +950)
Betting Pick:
- Draw no bet - Everton @ +100 (Pinnacle)
Thursday, February 04th, 2021
Chelsea @ Tottenham - 3:00 pm ET
Chelsea got their first win under new boss Thomas Tuchel by beating Burnley 2-0 on Saturday. Tuchel made some interesting changes to the starting lineup, going back to some players seemingly out of favor with the previous manager and it certainly paid dividends. There's been a total of five goals in their last four games and their record against top-10 sides is dreadful this year. Just one win, three draws and five defeats in those nine games and that's something they'll need to change if they are to challenge for the top-4 spots.
Tottenham suffered a humbling 1-0 defeat against Brighton and they looked lost without captain Harry Kane. Even before Kane's injury, Tottenham was stuttering along with just two wins in their previous eight games before the Sunday defeat. Despite their passive style of play, Tottenham only has one clean sheet in their last nine league games.
The reverse fixture was a very uninspiring 0-0 draw and I think this will be similarly tight but Tuchel might be a bit more adventurous early in his spell and it's difficult to think Tottenham will be as bad as they were against Brighton.
Tottenham 6th - 33 pts
Chelsea 7th - 33 pts
Score prediction: Tottenham 1 - 1 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Game lines - Total goals under 2.5 @ -113 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all four picks @ +1307. Feel free to mix them up with trebles or doubles too as a safety net. The shortest odds treble is +604.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back later this week for the matchweek 23 picks.
