RADIO
Liverpool's first home league defeat in 68 games cost us a sweep and the parlay, but the first two picks of matchweek 19 (part 2) did net us profit for the slate. Matchweek 20 offers up a full 10-game midweek fixture list and the first set of games between sides who met earlier in the season in a reverse of the matchweek 13 fixtures. We went 0 for 3 that week and I'm blaming the unlucky number 13 for that, so here's hoping we hit a second straight profitable week.
- Picks total - 21 out of 50
- Parlays - 1 out of 16
- Correct scores - 7 out of 50
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Wednesday, January 27th, 2021
Aston Villa @ Burnley - 1:00 pm ET
Back in matchweek 13, these two played out a 0-0 draw in a game that saw Aston Villa hit the woodwork twice. Aston Villa had a two-week break after a Covid-19 outbreak and returned to action in a controversial 2-0 loss at Manchester City last Wednesday. That defeat made it three league games without a win before they righted the ship with a comfortable 2-0 victory over Newcastle at the weekend. Aston Villa has played four games away to sides in the bottom half of the table, winning all four without conceding and in ten total games facing bottom-half sides, they have seven wins and eight clean sheets. In only six of their 17 league games have both teams scored.
For Burnley, they picked up a massive upset victory at Liverpool last time out. That was Burnley's fifth straight game with the scoreline being 1-0 (two wins and three losses) and their ninth straight game ending in a draw or decided by one goal. Of Burnley's 19 league games this season, only five have seen both teams scoring and only two of their eight home games have both teams found the net.
This game looks like being another tight encounter and will probably be won by the team that scores first. That's assuming either team manages to find a goal. Burnley's surprise win against Liverpool means they aren't as pressed to find a winner here should the game stay goalless into the second half and both teams will likely settle for a point if the game is level in the latter stages.
Aston Villa 8th - 29 pts
Burnley 15th - 19 pts
Score prediction: Burnley 0 - 0 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +1100)
A reminder that never bet on 0-0 as the correct score. Instead, bet on 'No Goalscorer' which offers the same odds but pays out if the only goal(s) of the game is an own goal.
Betting Pick:
- Both teams to score - No @ +108 (Pinnacle)
Leicester City @ Everton - 3:15 pm ET
Leicester City kept up their title challenge with a third successive victory last week, a 2-0 win over Chelsea which ended up being Chelsea Head Coach Frank Lampard's last game in charge. They're on a six-game unbeaten run since Everton defeated them 2-0 in matchweek 13, which was also the last time they failed to score. Leicester has only lost one away game all season and that was a 3-0 reverse at Everton's local rivals, Liverpool. The problem Leicester face is having to do without top scorer Jamie Vardy for this game following a minor hernia operation. Although he hadn't scored in Leicester's last five league games, his pace helps stretch defenses and open up space for their creative attacking midfielders. That's something they may have to navigate their way around without a direct replacement.
Everton is only six points behind their opponents in the league and has two games in hand so can't be ruled out of the title race themselves. Key players are returning from injury and they come into this fixture with just one defeat from their last seven league games. Everton has failed to score in just three of their 17 league games this season and scored in six of the seven games they've played against current top-half teams. Top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin returned at the weekend and was on the scoresheet in their FA Cup game at the weekend (3-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday).
Everton having their top scorer available for this game could be the difference and they come into this game as slight underdogs, which is something we can take advantage of. I shade this game to Everton but being 'dogs, we can take the "draw no bet" option which gives a full refund if the game ends in a draw.
Leicester City 3rd - 38 pts
Everton 6th - 32 pts
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +950)
Betting Pick:
- Draw no bet - Everton @ +100 (Pinnacle)
Sheffield United @ Manchester United - 3:15 pm ET
Sheffield United couldn't build on the momentum of winning their first league game a fortnight ago, losing to Tottenham 3-1 in their last league game. They follow this game with a trip to Manchester City so there's a very real chance that Sheffield United drift too far away from the safety of 17th place before they face West Brom at the start of February.
Manchester United will likely find themselves in second place by kick-off and will want to get back to top of the league in a game against the bottom of the table. Their matchweek 13 encounter saw Manchester United come away 3-2 winners which remains the only time Sheffield United scored twice in a league game this season.
As you might imagine, Manchester United is the heavy favorite to win the game (-385) but there is some value in this game. The two teams combined for five goals last time and while I don't think we see a repeat, there should be more than one goal scored. Peter Bankes will be the referee for this game and in his seven EPL games he's officiated this season, he's dished out 28 yellow cards and two reds. Sheffield United is 3rd in yellow cards this season (37 in 19 games) while Manchester United is 7th (30 in 19 games). Their matchweek 13 contest saw a total of five yellow cards so two of the more cautioned teams in the league with a ref who averages four yellows a game should see at least three bookings. Corner wise, their earlier season game saw eight total corners and Manchester United is averaging 5.1 corners a game for and 4.8 against. Sheffield United averages 4.9 corners for and 6.1 against this season. We'll add over 8.5 corners to our bet.
Sheffield United 20th - 5 pts
Manchester United 1st - 40 pts
Score prediction: Manchester United 3 - 1 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +1100)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Over 1.5 total goals, over 8.5 total corners & over 2.5 total cards @ +123 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +828
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back later this week for the matchweek 21 picks.
