RADIO
Matchweek 19 rolls on after the weekend fixtures yielded us just one winner. Leeds failed to score at home to Brighton in a performance not aided by a pitch that looked like it had just hosted Coachella. And unfortunately, Tottenham decided this week was the week they'd actually look to score more than once in a game. The midweek fixtures consist of teams playing their second game in four days so we need to factor that into our picks. Nevertheless, we've got three picks over a three day period to reach the season's midway point on a high.
- Picks total - 19 out of 47
- Parlays - 1 out of 15
- Correct scores - 7 out of 47
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Tuesday, January 19th, 2021
West Brom @ West Ham - 1:00 pm ET
West Brom picked up a much-needed 3-2 win at Wolves, their first victory since Sam Allardyce took over as Head Coach. They did require two penalties to take home the three points and also survived a late onslaught, all against a side who hadn't won in their previous five league games. Ending a run of seven league games without a win will lift a huge weight off the shoulders of the players and scoring three goals in a game for the first time since matchweek 3 will also feel good. West Brom still can't keep clean sheets, however, with only two on the season and none in eight.
West Ham picked up a 1-0 win at home to Burnley on Saturday, making it back-to-back 1-0 victories and three straight clean sheets. Goals are still hard to come by for West Ham with just eight goals in eight games and four in their last five. They're likely to sign a striker this month but until they do, West Ham will continue to be embroiled in some tight games and reliant on their defense to see them through.
The line for a West Ham win is understandably stingy so we're going to add in the corners matchup. West Brom has the fewest corners on the season with just 63 and gives up the most with 129 in their 18 games. They didn't have any at the weekend and in 15 of their 18 games this season, West Brom hasn't had more than four corners.
West Brom 19th - 11 pts
West Ham 9th - 29 pts
Score prediction: West Ham 1 - 0 West Brom (Draftkings odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - West Ham to win and West Ham most corners @ +100 (Draftkings)
Chelsea @ Leicester City - 3:15 pm ET
Chelsea picked up a much-needed win against local rivals Fulham on Saturday, just their second win in their last seven league games. Fulham played the entire second-half with ten men and nearly held on for a draw as Chelsea's offensive struggles continued. That's now four straight league games in which Chelsea has managed just one goal but critically for them, it was their first clean sheet in that run. They certainly haven't looked like a cohesive attacking team in recent games.
Leicester navigated a tricky fixture against Southampton, coming out comprehensive 2-0 winners on Saturday, extending their unbeaten run to five games. Unlike Chelsea, Leicester has been scoring much more freely with two or more goals scored in six of their last eight games. In their five defeats this season, Leicester failed to score in four of them so it's rare they score and lose. Leicester looks like the more fluid offensive team of these two at present and I expect them to come away from the game with at least a point.
Four of the last five league meetings between these two teams ended in a draw with Leicester getting the win in the other game. Chelsea are favorites with the bookmakers and that's something we can exploit with a draw no bet, meaning if Leicester wins, we cash. If it's a draw, the bet is refunded in full.
Chelsea 7th - 29 pts
Leicester City 3rd - 35 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 1 Chelsea (Draftkings odds +900)
Betting Pick:
- Draw no bet - Leicester City @ +120 (Draftkings)
Thursday, January 21st, 2021
Burnley @ Liverpool - 3:00 pm ET
Burnley played out their fourth 1-0 at the weekend. Unfortunately for them, they've only won one of those four games. In Burnley's 17 games this season, there's been one or fewer goals in 11 of them with three goalless draws, five 1-0 defeats and three 1-0 defeats. Burnley's nine goals scored this season is the fewest in the league although defensively, only one team in the bottom half of the table has conceded fewer than their 22 goals against. Burnley games are rarely entertaining.
Since scoring seven goals against Crystal Palace, Liverpool has gone four games without a win, scoring just once and go into this game without a goal in their last three league games. If they want to keep their title aspirations alive, they need to get back to winning ways and get their attack firing soon. Liverpool has won nine of the twelve Premier League meetings with Burnley, losing just once and only one of the last ten meetings has been won by more than two goals. Burnley should be stubborn enough to cause Liverpool difficulties but if Liverpool do find a route to goal, they should take all three points as it's unlikely they'll concede.
Burnley 17th - 16 pts
Liverpool 4th - 34 pts
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 0 Burnley (Draftkings odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Liverpool to win and under 3.5 total goals @ +107 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +811
Please note, at the time of writing, Pinnacle hadn't published full odds and generally offers better correct score odds so shop around.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 20 picks.
