RADIO
The festive period started with a whimper, but we ended it with a bang by cashing in picks of +120 and +143 along with correct score picks of +575 and +750 in matchweek 16. We were one goal away from a +1470 parlay too but we can't grumble. This time of year is notoriously difficult to predict due to the heavy fixture congestion throwing up some strange results and we've also had to contend with two teams having a Covid-19 outbreak postponing their fixtures. That leaves us with just nine games for the New Year's weekend slate (with one in doubt), which we'll look to use to start the year with a bang.
- Picks total - 16 out of 39
- Parlays - 1 out of 13
- Correct scores - 6 out of 39
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Friday, January 01st, 2021
West Ham @ Everton- 12:30 pm ET
The first game of 2021 sees West Ham travel to Everton looking to get their first win in five games. Their winless run comes on the back of winning four games in five so it's safe to say that West Ham has had an up and down period. After scoring three or more goals in three of their first five games of the season, they've failed to repeat that feat and managed just 12 goals in their last 11 games, drawing a blank in two of their last three games.
Following Liverpool's draw to end 2020, Everton can now go within one point of the league leaders with a win and after having their game postponed on December 28th (due to Manchester City's Covid-19 outbreak), they will come into this game the fresher side which could prove to be the difference as the game goes on. Like West Ham, their form has been up and down as they enter the new year with a four-game win streak after winning just one of their previous seven. This is in fact Everton's second four-game win streak of the season having started it off in such fashion.
Both sides have had success from set-pieces ranking tied-2nd with six goals scored and also ranking tied-2nd defending them, with just one conceded. For West Ham, a set-piece normally is their best chance of scoring but Everton has the better quality in attacking areas to score from open play. The extra time off and the greater creativity should just give them the edge in this one. I do like either team to score from a header as a prop bet where available, but we're just going to keep things simple and back the home team to win.
West Ham 10th - 23 pts
Everton 4th - 29 pts
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 West Ham (Pinnacle odds +825)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Everton to win @ +105 (Pinnacle)
Saturday, January 02nd, 2021
Wolves @ Brighton - 12:30 pm ET
Wolves' poor run of form continued with an injury-time defeat at Manchester United to close out the year. That's left them with just one win and five points from their last six games since losing star striker Raul Jimenez to a horrific head injury. Out of those six games, Wolves has had to play five of the league's top-7 sides in the standings so they will see this fixture as a chance to get back to winning ways after a torrid spell. Although Wolves have found goals hard to come by this season (15 goals in 16 games), they have actually scored in every game against sides in the bottom half of the table. Defensively, they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last nine games.
For Brighton, defeat at home to Arsenal last time out meant they managed just one home win in the league during 2020 and left them one spot above the relegation zone without a win in their last seven games. Although their home form has been dreadful, that defeat was only the second time this season Brighton failed to score at home. The only previous time they drew a blank at home, they did have an expected goals scored (xG) of 1.3. That was the 0-0 draw against Burnley which also saw their only home clean sheet this season
I don't envisage a classic and the total goals line suggests the bookmakers expect the same. But I think both teams will score as neither has a propensity for keeping clean sheets and both have just been proficient enough offensively to find the odd goal in games.
Wolves 12th - 21 pts
Brighton 17th - 13 pts
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Wolves (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Team props - Both teams to score Yes @ +106 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, January 03rd, 2021
Fulham @ Burnley - 7:00 am ET
Before we continue, let me caveat this by saying at present, this game is scheduled to go ahead. However, Fulham's fixture against Tottenham on Wednesday 30th December was postponed due to a Covid-19 outbreak within the Fulham squad so this game is very much questionable to go ahead right now.
If this game does go ahead, Fulham may be fresher and benefit as Everton should. But we do not know who or how many Fulham players tested positive for Covid-19 so although fresher, they could be without a number of first-team regulars to even just one or two key players. On Boxing Day, Fulham picked up their fourth consecutive point with a goalless draw against Southampton. While not losing games, that was their fifth match without a win and the seventh time this season they have failed to score (15 games).
Burnley has managed to drag themselves out of the relegation zone with an impressive run of 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last six games. This run came on the back of a 5-0 defeat to Manchester City and has seen them keep three clean shits in the six games. Goals are still hard to come by, with just nine in their 16 games this season and only twice have they managed to score more than one in a game. The recent run and the takeover by American investment group ALK Capital will breathe new optimism into the team to start the year and I expect them to continue grinding out the narrow wins in these sorts of games.
Burnley 16th - 16 pts
Fulham 18th - 11 pts
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 0 Fulham (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Burnley to win @ +124 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- All three picks @ +946.
- If the Burnley v Fulham game is postponed, I'm open to adding in Leicester City (-146) and Liverpool (-148) both to win giving odds of +1192
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! There are no EPL fixtures for a fortnight as the FA Cup third round takes place next weekend so check back in a fortnight for the matchweek 18 picks.
