RADIO
The EPL's hectic Christmas schedule is such that I'm having to write this before Matchweek 15 has been completed. As if teams playing two games in three days isn't difficult enough to predict, there could be some issues (such as injuries etc) that cause me to alter my thought process on a game. So I'll look to steer more towards picks that nullify the potential variables we could be dealt up from the Boxing Day fixtures.
- Picks total - 13 out of 33
- Parlays - 1 out of 11
- Correct scores - 4 out of 33
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Monday, December 28th, 2020
Aston Villa @ Chelsea - 12:30 pm ET
Aston Villa secured an impressive 3-0 victory against Crystal Palace on Boxing Day, their second straight such victory in the League. It also marked their fourth straight clean sheet, albeit they have come against sides in the bottom half of the table. In their four losses this season, they conceded two or more in each of them and those four games have seen a total of 16 goals in them. So when Aston Villa lose, it's the defensive side that generally lets them down. Villa ranks 3rd in goals per game (27 goals in 13 games) and their away form is excellent with five wins in six games. They have yet to fail to score in an away game this season and they kept a clean sheet in their five wins with just a 2-1 loss at West Ham the only road blemish they have.
Chelsea has just lost to Arsenal as I write this, a result very few people saw coming. Worryingly, Head Coach Frank Lampard was very critical of his players after the defeat citing a lack of effort for their performance. The defeat was their third in four games with the solitary win in that run coming against West Ham, a game that they struggled with a sluggish display for the majority of the game. Chelsea has plenty of squad depth to make changes to freshen things up for this game but their recent performances and Head Coach's comments are a concern. They have scored three or more in five of their seven home games with two blanks (coming against Liverpool and Tottenham), so seem more comfortable at home. That being said, the West Ham win is the only top-half side they have beaten at home and with Manchester City due after this game, their title credentials will be seriously tested this week.
This game is a bit of a coin flip but the oddsmakers look far less concerned about the two teams' recent form than I am. One thing these two teams have in common is a propensity to score more in the second half of games. In Chelsea's 15 games, they've scored 21 of their 30 goals in the second half of games and Aston Villa has scored 17 of their 27 in the second half (13 games).
Aston Villa 6th - 25 pts
Chelsea 7th - 25 pts
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Halves - Both teams to score 2nd Half - Yes @ +175 (Draftkings)
Tuesday, December 29th, 2020
Sheffield United @ Burnley - 1:00 pm ET
The only two teams in the league without reaching double-digit goals meet in what is so likely a low scoring affair, it's the shortest odds for under 2.5 total goals (-180) I've ever seen in an EPL match.
Sheffield United lost 1-0 at home to Everton on Boxing Day night after holding out for 79 minutes. The game has only just finished so I've yet to see how the game fully played out but looking at the stats, it seems as though Sheffield United struggled to create any real goal-scoring chances again. It's the eighth time in 15 games they have failed to score.
Burnley is playing Leeds United on Sunday in a game I expect them to lose. But they will see this fixture as a huge chance to put some breathing space between themselves and the relegation zone, especially as they could potentially be inside those dreaded bottom-3 spots by the time this game comes along.
Due to the super stingy goal-line the bookies are listing, it's hard to find value there. I expect Burnley to win but if Sheffield United manages to nick the opening goal, I find it hard to see them scoring twice. The corner market on the other hand is quite appealing.
Sheffield United simply has to win this game if they have any hopes of avoiding relegation so should show more urgency in their play. They are tied-10th in corners won this season (73 in 15 games), meanwhile, Burnley is 20th with just 50 in their 13 games. Although Sheffield United has conceded the most corners in the league (100), Burnley is third with 89 in two fewer games.
Sheffield United 20th - 2 pts
Burnley 16th - 13 pts
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 0 Sheffield United (Draftkings odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Corners - Most corners Sheffield United @ +143 (Draftkings)
Leeds United @ West Brom - 1:00 pm ET
Neither of these two teams has played their Matchweek 15 fixture at the time of writing but I don't anticipate things changing my mind on this game.
Leeds' style of play has seen them concede more goals than any other team but also score more than any side in the bottom half of the table. A total of 22 goals have been scored in their previous four games which consisted of a 5-2 victory and a 6-2 defeat. I believe Burnley will make things a bit tougher for them while also not testing out the Leeds questionable defense. Normality should resume in this game with West Brom having the second-worst defensive record (29 goals conceded).
West Brom appointed Sam Allardyce as their new manager but any hopes of an immediate impact were extinguished with a 3-0 loss against Aston Villa. Their solitary win this season was a 1-0 victory against bottom side Sheffield United and they are facing Liverpool on Sunday prior to this game. The previously mentioned Sheffield United and Burnley are the only sides with fewer goals scored than West Brom's 10 and they are unlikely to add to that tally facing the Premier League champions on Sunday.
I fancy Leeds to win this one although it is worth just following both sides' games on Sunday to make sure nothing sinister happens which could have a big impact on this game. Leeds has scored in every away game this season and five of those seven games have been against top-7 sides in the League so they should have no problem scoring enough to beat West Brom.
Leeds United 15th - 17 pts
West Brom 19th - 7 pts
Score prediction: West Brom 1 - 3 Leeds United (Draftkings & Pinnacle odds +1150)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game Parlay - Leeds United to win and over 1.5 goals @ +120 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All three picks @ +1470
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly and check back soon as matchweek 17 is on New Year's Day.
